Archives for January 2019

The mailbag was quite full this week, so much so that we’re going to run another one next week with some of the questions that aren’t discussed here so if your question wasn’t covered here, watch for it next weekend.  Topics this week include the Oilers, deadline plans for the Red Wings, Rangers, Penguins, and the Capitals, plus the recent struggles of William Nylander and the Maple Leafs.

sixfootnineballerina: If you were in charge of the Oilers and your job wasn’t in jeopardy, what moves would you make to turn the team into a legitimate contender (either now or in the future)?

For starters, I’d give up on the current season.  Can Edmonton sneak into a playoff spot with some additions?  Sure.  Should they mortgage more of their future in order to accomplish that?  I don’t think so which means I’d be going the opposite way Peter Chiarelli appears to be.  That would also mean a coaching change at the end of the year.

Teams are looking for goaltending right now and both Cam Talbot and Mikko Koskinen should have some value.  I’d look to move at least one if not both of them as I’m not sure either is worth committing a long-term deal to.  In the summer, I’d turn to the free agent market.  Sergei Bobrovsky is probably off the table (too expensive) but I think Semyon Varlamov would represent an upgrade over what they’ve had in recent years.  There’s still some volatility in his play but I think he’s a bit under the radar and could be a serviceable starter at a reasonable AAV for a few more years.

The signing bonus-laden structure of Milan Lucic’s deal makes a buyout extremely unrealistic.  Instead, I offer to retain 50% of his contract and take back the cheapest non-bonus-laden bad contract I can get and buy that deal out instead.  I know Lucic has four years left but at a $3MM AAV with the opportunity to offload a bad contract as well, there should be a taker or two and from Edmonton’s perspective, some savings is better than no savings.

In terms of other trades, I’d be open to anything not involving Connor McDavid.  Someone like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins would fetch a sizable return and as things stand, it’s not likely they’ll be able to afford him when his contract is up so they should cash in now while his value is maximized.  Finding ways to add long-term payroll flexibility would be a priority in any move because the one-two punch of McDavid and Leon Draisaitl (given his deal, I don’t think his trade market would be substantial) is pricey no matter how much the cap goes up.

The way free agency has gone lately, the really rich contracts that are bad from the minute they’re signed are decreasing.  As teams give their younger players more money earlier and earlier, the UFA class starts to become more appealing as some good players will eventually get squeezed out.  There can be decent value deals to be had there and the opportunity to play with someone like McDavid is a feather in Edmonton’s cap.

Long story short, sell what you can to free up some long-term cap room and add some young assets to build around McDavid and Draisaitl.  Add another defenseman or two in the draft.  From there, fill some holes on the open market with players that could view Edmonton as an ideal ‘pillow contract’ spot – use McDavid as the marketing tool and there will be takers.  It doesn’t sound pretty and it’s not a quick fix but there isn’t one to be made here.

bucs_fan: Am I crazy to think the Penguins should NOT make a trade? Chemistry seems great right now.

heather_vono: What team is the best fit for Brassard? Because it obviously isn’t the Pens. What’s the potential return?

The idea of keeping the Penguins intact makes some sense.  This is a pretty good group and they’ve had extended playoff success in the past.  If Jim Rutherford decided to stand pat, I think it would certainly be defensible.

But let’s face it.  This is Rutherford we’re talking about here and he likes to bring in fresh blood.  Brassard seems highly likely to go as he’s not fitting in as their third line center.  The problem here is that most of the contending teams would have him in that role as well and if he can’t play that in Pittsburgh, he may not be able to elsewhere.

Still, there should be some interest.  Columbus is known to have inquired and given their situation down the middle, he could be a second liner for them.  If Colorado decides to add a rental, Brassard makes plenty of sense (but if they keep struggling, the odds of them going this route drop).  With Jason Spezza on the wing and Martin Hanzal perpetually injured, there’s a top-six spot for Brassard there for now.  If a team thinks he can play a third line role, Boston, Winnipeg, and Anaheim present as decent fits.  San Jose has kicked the tires as well.

As for a return, it’s going to be more of a help-now package instead of a futures-based one.  They’ll want a center back that can at least somewhat step into Brassard’s role.  In a perfect world, they save a bit of cap room along the way as well.  A draft pick or prospect would balance out the trade and I could see that asset being flipped for a rental player to supplement their depth.

ThePriceWasRight: Do you see the recent Toronto slump resulting in an earlier move by Kyle Dubas?

I don’t think it really moves the needle too much in either direction.  I know Montreal and Buffalo are still within striking distance of a top-three spot in the Atlantic (the Canadiens are tied for third heading into today’s action though everyone in the playoff hunt has games in hand) but I expect Toronto and Boston will be meeting up in the first round as the two and three seeds.  Beyond jockeying for home ice advantage over the Bruins, there isn’t a lot to play for over the next ten weeks or so.  A little dip like this during that stretch wouldn’t concern me too much if I was Dubas.

With that in mind, I don’t think there’s a need for the Maple Leafs to make an early trade.  Their need for help on the back end is well-known and the rough patch they had doesn’t really change that.  At this point, Dubas just needs to wait for the right move.  If it comes now, make it now but if not, I suspect they’ll wait it out as they have the luxury to be patient here.

tigers22: Jimmy Howard to San Jose for two 2’s. Nyquist to Boston for a 1 and 3. Jensen to Edmonton for a 2nd. What are the odds Ken Holland can pull this off?

As a package?  I’d say extremely low.  Let’s look at each of these individually.

The believed asking price for Howard is a first rounder and while I don’t think they’ll get that, I can’t see a team jumping at a pair of seconds either.  One second rounder plus another lesser asset is probably the ceiling here.  On top of that, I still expect him to sign a contract extension between now and the deadline.  He hasn’t exactly hidden his desire to stick around.

As for Gustav Nyquist, it all depends on how many teams are willing to move a number one pick.  If Ottawa can’t re-sign them, Matt Duchene and Mark Stone should yield one in return.  Considering he plays a premium position, Kevin Hayes might as well.  If Jeff Skinner doesn’t sign an extension, does Buffalo move him?  If so, there’s another first rounder gone.  If some of those players re-sign, then perhaps Nyquist becomes part of that top tier of tradeable rentals.  Even at that though, do players with term start to yield firsts instead?  There will probably be one or two of those moves as well.  I like Nyquist but it’s hard to see him bringing back a first from anyone.

Nick Jensen’s an interesting case.  On the one hand, he’s making less than $1MM while averaging over 20 minutes a night.  On the other, he was believed to be available just before the start of the season when it looked like Detroit might have a logjam on the back end.  (Then everyone went and got hurt and that was the end of that idea.)  Does a few good months take his value from negligible to a fairly high draft pick?  I think it’s more likely he falls in the third or fourth round range if he doesn’t re-sign, a scenario I wouldn’t rule out at this point.

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