Archives for August 2018

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Florida Panthers

August 30, 2018 at 7:47 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Florida Panthers

Current Cap Hit: $77,573,332 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Henrik Borgstrom (two years, $925K)
F Denis Malgin (one year, $690K)
D Ian McCoshen (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses:

Borgstrom: $850K
McCoshen: $200K

Total: $1.05MM

Borgstrom followed up a strong freshman college campaign with an even better sophomore year and the Panthers decided to sign him for the stretch run last season, burning the first year of his entry-level deal in the process. While he played a sparing role in their push for the playoffs, he should be a regular in their bottom six to start the year. 2019-20 should be a breakthrough season for him if all goes well and that will be the one that determines whether or not he gets a long-term pact or a bridge deal. Malgin surprised many by making the team two years ago and has spent the majority of his time in the NHL since then. He’s still waiver-exempt though which could have him shuffling back and forth once again (he’ll battle Borgstrom to stay up) but he has done enough to warrant a decent raise on his next contract.

McCoshen was the seventh defender for most of last season and as a result, he spent a lot of time as a healthy scratch. With no turnover on their back end, he’s likely to be in that role once again which means a short-term contract at a rate close to what he’s making now is likely on the horizon.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Troy Brouwer ($850K, UFA)
F Micheal Haley ($825K, UFA)
G Michael Hutchinson ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Derek MacKenzie ($1.375MM, UFA)
F Jamie McGinn ($3.33MM, UFA)
D Alexander Petrovic ($1.95MM, UFA)
F Frank Vatrano ($925K, RFA)
D MacKenzie Weegar ($900K, RFA)

McGinn was brought in last summer largely to offset salary in the Jason Demers trade. He will play in their bottom six once again and then will be looking at a notable pay cut on his next deal. MacKenzie, their captain, has been a fixture on their fourth line but with them being as tight to the cap as they are and the fact he’ll turn 38 next June, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them opt for a cheaper, younger player next summer. Vatrano made an immediate impact after being acquired near the trade deadline last season. If he picks up where he left off, he could wind up doubling his current cap hit without much difficulty.

Brouwer was brought in after being bought out by Calgary earlier this month. It’s a no-risk deal for Florida – if he can lock down a regular spot, that alone will make it worth the money and if he can still produce a little bit, they’ll have a nice bargain. Haley is one of the few pure enforcers left around the league and with the little demand there is for those players, it’s hard to see him getting much of a raise on his next deal.

Petrovic has been a trade candidate for a little while now, especially after his role was reduced under Bob Boughner last season. He opted to sign for just $100K over his qualifying offer but it will be hard for him to get another raise on the open market if he remains in a depth role. Weegar has worked his way into a regular spot in the lineup but is also a player on the fringes. If he can up his average ice time by a few minutes, he’ll have a good case for next summer with arbitration eligibility; otherwise, his next deal should be close to this one.

Hutchinson projects to be the third-stringer that will most likely start in the minors but given how much he’s making to play that role, he’s at least worth a mention here. If he does clear waivers and gets assigned to the AHL, his cap hit will drop to just $275K.

Two Years Remaining

F Evgeni Dadonov ($4MM, UFA)
F Mike Hoffman ($5.188MM, UFA)
F Jared McCann ($1.25MM, RFA)
D Mark Pysyk ($2.733MM, UFA)

Dadonov’s contract was viewed as a significant risk last summer. While he had produced in the KHL, he had struggled considerably in his first NHL stint. Instead, he rewarded Florida’s faith in him by finishing fourth on the team in scoring with 65 points. All of a sudden, his deal went from a risk to a considerable bargain. Hoffman was brought in on the cheap to strengthen their winger depth. He has averaged 59 points over the last three years and if he comes somewhat close to that in Florida, he’ll be worth the money. McCann hasn’t emerged into a second line player like the Panthers hoped so he’ll get two more years to try to do so on his bridge deal. Even if that doesn’t happen, he could double his current AAV with arbitration eligibility if he repeats his numbers from last season.

Pysyk is a role player but has played well enough to hold down a spot on the second pairing more often than not. For a few hundred thousand under the league average salary, that’s decent value even if he isn’t the flashiest of players.

Three Years Remaining

F Nick Bjugstad ($4.1MM, UFA)
G James Reimer ($3.4MM, UFA)
F Colton Sceviour ($1.2MM, UFA)

Bjugstad’s second crack at playing the wing resulted in a career year in points with 49. That said, his value on the open market would be higher if he was shifted back to the middle, something that doesn’t appear to be in the cards, barring injury. Sceviour projects to once again be more of a role player but he has been a consistent producer in that spot in recent years, collecting between 23 and 26 points over the last four seasons.

Reimer’s contract was a stunner a couple of years ago as backup goalies never get five years. However, with the way the backup goalie market has gone up lately, his AAV isn’t all that much higher than some of the players who signed this summer and a case can be made that Reimer’s track record is better than some of those other backups. Of course, it’s quite possible – if not likely – that this deal really set the market for number two netminders to get a big raise. With health concerns surrounding Roberto Luongo, the Panthers at least have a stable option to turn to in Reimer whose deal doesn’t look like quite the premium it was when it was first signed.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Aleksander Barkov ($5.9MM through 2021-22)
D Aaron Ekblad ($7.5MM through 2024-25)
F Jonathan Huberdeau ($5.9MM through 2022-23)
G Roberto Luongo ($4.533MM through 2021-22)
D Mike Matheson ($4.875MM 2025-26)
F Vincent Trocheck ($4.75MM through 2021-22)
D Keith Yandle ($6.35MM through 2022-23)

Barkov was able to stay healthy for most of the year and turned in his best performance by far, setting career highs offensively while averaging the second most ice time per game of any forward in the league. He may not get the attention that other top centers do but he is a legitimate front line player. Huberdeau also had his best season by a significant margin and should continue to be a fixture on their top line at an AAV that’s at the lower end for players in that role. Trocheck may be the biggest bargain of the group. He played like a number one center last year (and despite Barkov’s high ATOI, Trocheck as a second liner still had the sixth highest ATOI among NHL forwards) and is getting paid like an average number two or high-end number three. The Panthers quietly have one of the top center groups in the league at a pretty cheap rate overall.

Ekblad’s extension raised some eyebrows and while he improved offensively last season compared to his previous year, he has yet to really take a big step forward in that department that the team was clearly projecting when they signed him. He’s a top pairing player but this deal is still a bit on the pricey side for now. Yandle was one of the more prolific offensive blueliners in the league which is what they brought him in to be. Considering he turns 32 next weekend, the back year or two of the deal could be a bit painful but if he produces like this for a few more years, they’ll be okay with the drop off. Matheson’s contract came out of the blue early last season but it’s more defensible now as he has clearly established himself in their top four and still has some room to take on a bigger role if needed. It’s not a bargain by any stretch at this point but it’s not the overpayment some were suggesting it was last October either.

Luongo has said all the right things about playing out his contract but he’s owed just $7MM in actual salary over the final four years of his deal. He also has had issues staying healthy the last couple of seasons so it’s fair to say his long-term future is actually uncertain. If he retires, Vancouver will be hit hard on salary recapture while the Panthers are still on the hook for a smaller amount for a couple more years until his total cap charge exceeds actual salary paid. Accordingly, retirement isn’t likely even if he doesn’t plan to play for four more years.

Buyouts

F Jussi Jokinen ($1.33MM in 2018-19)

Retained Salary Transactions

D Jason Demers ($563K through 2020-21)

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Trocheck
Worst Value: McGinn

(Excluding entry-level contracts)

Looking Ahead

Florida is going to be tighter to the Upper Limit than they’re typically accustomed to for the upcoming season and for the foreseeable future with nearly $50MM on the books for 2020-21 already. The good news is that no one is really in line for a big-ticket contract over the next few years so they should still be able to retain some flexibility moving forward. If ownership is willing to spend near the cap each year, the Panthers should be able to keep this core together without too much trouble.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Noah Hanifin Close To Signing With Calgary

August 30, 2018 at 7:20 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

August 30: The Flames and Hanifin are putting the final touches on a new deal, TSN’s Darren Dreger reports (Twitter link).

August 25: Flames offseason acquisition Noah Hanifin is one of 14 remaining restricted free agents this summer. That’s not likely to be the case much longer as the defenseman told NHL.com’s Dan Rosen that he is “super close” to getting a deal done and has no worries that something won’t be in place by the time players report to camp on September 9th. Calgary GM Brad Treliving also expressed optimism to Rosen that a deal would be reached in the near future.

Hanifin indicated that he’s hoping to sign a contract that is at least five years in length which would seemingly take a short-term bridge deal off the table while Treliving declined to comment on what type of term they are discussing. The Flames opened up the salary cap space to give him a long-term pact after they bought out winger Troy Brouwer in their post-arbitration window and currently sit with a little over $7.5MM in room to work with per CapFriendly.

A five-year deal for the 21-year-old would take him to unrestricted free agency at its conclusion; although he’d still be below the usual UFA age of 27, he will have reached the seven years of service time mark to get there. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Calgary push for a contract that’s at least a little bit longer even though the AAV will be higher as a result.

Interestingly enough, one of the potential comparables for Hanifin is the player he was traded for in Dougie Hamilton who has a cap hit of $5.75MM. While Hamilton has the better offensive numbers, the Upper Limit has gone up since then which offsets that somewhat so an AAV around that range wouldn’t be too shocking for Hanifin when all is said and done.

Flyers Looking To Add Defensive Help At Forward

August 30, 2018 at 6:35 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

The Flyers would like to add a defensive-minded forward, GM Ron Hextall told Dave Isaac of the Cherry Hill Courier-Post. However, at this time, he acknowledged that the addition would need to come in the form of a trade and not via free agency:

“I’m open to it, but it would probably be more of a lateral move on the market rather than a free agent. It would be a forward. We’d like to add a penalty-killing forward but to this point there’s been nothing there that’s made enough sense for us to move.”

While there are a few veteran forwards left on the open market with some penalty killing experience such as Shawn Matthias, Dominic Moore, and Chris Kelly, those players would likely wind up on the fringes of the roster so adding them in wouldn’t necessarily make much of an impact when they’re shorthanded.

Philadelphia has seen their penalty kill performance drop in the past couple of years, from 80.5% efficiency in 2015-16 down to just 75.8% last season although they were a little better than that over the final couple of months. They also have a notable void to fill with the departure of Valtteri Filppula to the Islanders in free agency; he ranked second among Flyers forwards in SH TOI in 2017-18. Meanwhile, winger James van Riemsdyk, played just 1:27 all season long in that situation so he’s not an option to take Filppula’s spot in that situation.

Long-term, Nolan Patrick could work his way into a regular spot in that situation but they’ll be asking him to take on a larger role as it is without asking him to add a regular shift on the penalty kill to his workload as well. Accordingly, Hextall will likely continue to look around the league to see if there’s a small move to make to his bottom six that can give them a bit of a boost when they’re down a player. Once teams get a better idea of what they have in the preseason, deals like these will start to become more of an option so a trade like this is probably still a few weeks away.

PHR Live Chat Transcript: 08/30/18

August 30, 2018 at 5:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 1 Comment

Click here to read a transcript of this week’s live chat with PHR’s Gavin Lee.

Snapshots: Top 100, KHL, Lindholm

August 30, 2018 at 4:38 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 3 Comments

Sportsnet released its full ranking of the Top 100 NHL Players of 2018-19 today, and to almost no one’s surprise Connor McDavid is at the very top. The Edmonton Oilers star center edged out Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Victor Hedman and Nathan MacKinnon in the top five, after winning his second consecutive Art Ross Trophy as the league’s top scorer. The Boston Bruins, Winnipeg Jets and Nashville Predators lead the way with six players each, while the Detroit Red Wings were the only team to not have a single appearance on the list.

Amazingly, the New Jersey Devils had just a single player—Taylor Hall—appear on the list despite reaching the playoffs last season. Hall was awarded the Hart Trophy as league MVP after registering 93 points, and clearly the Sportsnet staff believes he deserved it for carrying the team without any other top 100 player on the roster.

The KHL have moved to a different point system for this season according to Russian reporter Aivis Kalnins, just days before games are about to begin. The league will abandon their previous scoring system that awarded three points for a regulation win, two points for an overtime or shootout win, and one point for an overtime or shootout loss in favor of the same two-point model the NHL currently uses. This system, critiqued by fans at times in North America, creates a level of virtual parity among all teams by keeping the standings squashed together for a longer period of time. In the KHL last season the first place team, SKA St. Petersburg, finished with 138 points in 56 games while last place, HC Yugra, collected just 48. In the new system, those extremes would have been 98 to 41.
Par Lindholm is ready to fight for a spot in the NHL this fall, but that wasn’t true just a year ago. As Kristen Shilton of TSN reports, Lindholm had an offer to come over from the SHL in the spring of 2017, but decided it was better for his career to stay in Sweden for another season. It looks like he was right, as the now 26-year old center registered a career-high 47 points in 49 games during the 2017-18 season and proved that he was one of the most dependable offensive leaders in the entire league. Those 47 points put him fourth in the SHL and only nine points behind young phenom Elias Pettersson. He’ll now try to battle for the fourth-line center role with the Maple Leafs, behind a trio of stars that should get the vast majority of minutes.

Columbus Blue Jackets Have Received Offers Of Prospects, Picks For Artemi Panarin

August 30, 2018 at 2:29 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 6 Comments

The Columbus Blue Jackets have been one of the most intriguing teams to keep an eye on this offseason, after reports surfaced months ago regarding Artemi Panarin and his reluctance to negotiate a long-term extension. That pushed the star forward—at least speculatively—onto the trade market, and made him one of the biggest stories of the summer. In his State of the Franchise column for The Athletic (subscription required), Blue Jackets insider Aaron Portzline reports that Columbus has received trade offers for Panarin but that they’ve been for prospects and “high-round draft picks.” The Blue Jackets obviously haven’t accepted these packages, and Portzline notes that they wouldn’t help “ease the absence” of the star winger for the upcoming season.

Columbus is still expected to compete for the Metropolitan Division title this season with the roster as currently constructed, but losing Panarin (and possibly Sergei Bobrovsky) to free agency in the summer of 2019 is a tough pill to swallow at this point. With no Stanley Cup success guaranteed in 2018-19, it would be tough for GM Jarmo Kekalainen to just allow the season to progress without a deal in place. Portzline reports that a list of “preferred destinations” for Panarin—which is headlined by the New York Rangers and also includes New York Islanders, Los Angeles Kings, Tampa Bay Lightning, Florida Panthers and Dallas Stars—is still applicable, though agent Dan Milstein has downplayed the accurary of any list and said that nothing had been provided (at that point) to the Blue Jackets.

Training camp starts in just two weeks for Columbus, and the Panarin situation was supposed to be resolved by then one way or another. If that’s a true deadline from Panarin’s perspective on negotiating an extension, the team may have to settle for one of the packages offered and hope the rest of the roster can take them to the playoffs on their own. After all, the team does have a good young core of players in Seth Jones, Zach Werenski, Pierre-Luc Dubois and others and could likely secure a big package of future assets for Panarin’s services. That could set the team up for even more long-term success, despite it coming with a decline in performance for the 2018-19 season.

Max Pacioretty “Wants To Remain” With Montreal Canadiens

August 30, 2018 at 11:59 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 4 Comments

In a series of tweets, Max Pacioretty’s agent Allan Walsh of Octagon Hockey shot down recent rumors and explained once again that his client wants desperately to sign a long-term extension with the Montreal Canadiens and that he loves the city. Walsh confirms that the Canadiens had a trade worked out at the draft with the Los Angeles Kings contingent on Pacioretty signing an extension there, intimating that his client had nothing to do with the deal. Pacioretty changed agents during the draft in Dallas, and has never publicly stated that he wants anything but to remain in Montreal. Walsh claims Pacioretty is “ready to sign an extension with Montreal today.”

Incidentally Walsh never does deny that Pacioretty asked for a trade last season, the report of which from Martin Leclerc today seemingly instigating his Twitter tirade. Instead, he makes it clear that at this moment the Canadiens captain would rather remain in town on a long-term extension. Announcements like this from any agent can and should be taken with a grain of salt given ongoing negotiations, but there does seem to be a disconnect between the player and organization at this point.

Pacioretty is heading into the final season of a team-friendly six-year contract signed back in 2012 and is likely looking for a substantial upgrade to stay in a Canadiens uniform. The team meanwhile can’t be happy with the state of their roster going into 2018-19 and may decide it’s best to invest in the next wave of talent and move on from Pacioretty, given their huge commitments to even older players in Shea Weber and Carey Price. Montreal isn’t expected to contend for the Stanley Cup this season, and is starting to look towards younger players like Jonathan Drouin, Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Victor Mete as leaders on their next competitive team.

Still, by being so vocal with his want for a long-term contract in Montreal, Pacioretty isn’t doing the team any favors on the trade market. Though he holds no trade protection in his current contract, he could still effectively block any deal by refusing to sign an extension with an acquiring team. The Canadiens would want to get full value in any trade, and with a tepid market for scoring wingers set by Jeff Skinner earlier this summer, starting the season with Pacioretty may be the best option.

Keith Aucoin Retires From Professional Hockey

August 30, 2018 at 11:47 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 3 Comments

If you’re a fan of only the NHL, you may only barely recognize Keith Aucoin’s name. The 39-year old forward played just 145 games in the league, and recorded just 49 points. But if you’ve watched AHL hockey throughout the last 15 or so years, you’ll understand that an incredible playing career ended recently when Aucoin announced his retirement. One of the best minor league players in recent history, Aucoin also dominated in Europe for the last four seasons.

Aucoin ranks seventh on the all-time AHL scoring list with 857 points in just 769 games, and fifth on the all-time assist leaderboard. His minor league career started in 2001-02 after an incredible career at Norwich University, and ended in 2013-14 when he finished the season with 43 points for the Chicago Wolves. During that time he also suited up for the Carolina Hurricanes, Washington Capitals, New York Islanders and St. Louis Blues, but was never given a full season to show what he could do at the NHL level.

The forward went undrafted in a time when small, undersized players were often overlooked, but still quickly proved his offensive prowess. Aucoin won two Calder Cups during his minor league career and was named AHL MVP in 2010 after scoring 106 points in 72 games for the champion Hershey Bears. According to Barry Scanlon of the Lowell Sun, Aucoin has taken a coaching position with the Boston Junior Rangers after a long an prosperous hockey career.

2006 NHL Draft Take Two: Sixth Overall Pick

August 30, 2018 at 11:08 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 1 Comment

Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

Our look back at the 2006 NHL Entry Draft is now in full swing as we poll the PHR community to see who would have been selected in the first round and in what order knowing what we know now. Through the first five picks we’ve already seen potential Hall of Fame players switch teams, and multiple captains move up the board.

Here are the results of the redraft so far:

1st Overall: Jonathan Toews (St. Louis Blues)
2nd Overall: Claude Giroux (Pittsburgh Penguins)
3rd Overall: Nicklas Backstrom (Chicago Blackhawks)
4th Overall: Brad Marchand (Washington Capitals)
5th Overall: Phil Kessel (Boston Bruins)

The Bruins didn’t change a thing about their 2006 draft, picking University of Minnesota standout Kessel with the fifth-overall pick. Our community overwhelmingly agreed that Kessel was the right pick, giving him over 77% of the vote. It’s hard to argue with that, especially when Kessel leads all 2006 draft picks with 914 regular season games, and trails only Backstrom in career points. With two Stanley Cups under his belt, and an iron man streak that has lasted more than eight seasons, Kessel is truly one of the best players of his class.

Now we’ll move forward to the sixth pick in the 2006 NHL Entry Draft, which was held by the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Back then, the Blue Jackets decided to go after another one of the top centers available, picking QMJHL offensive dynamo Derick Brassard. Brassard had just finished a season in junior that saw him score 116 points in 58 games, and had been named the top prospect in his league. Unfortunately the talented young forward would suffer a shoulder injury in the following preseason and miss all but 14 regular season games with Drummondville, and miss out on a chance to potentially lead the QMJHL in scoring. He’d jump to the NHL quickly after that though and has developed into a solid player with a long career.

Brassard now has 428 points in 716 games, but is he the best selection for the Blue Jackets with the benefit of hindsight? Is there someone else who would be more valuable given their career to date? With the sixth pick of the 2006 NHL Entry Draft, who should the Columbus Blue Jackets select? Cast your vote below!

[Mobile users click here to vote]

Minor Transactions: 08/30/18

August 30, 2018 at 9:23 am CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

While many of the NHL’s stars are in Toronto for a training camp, and prospect lists are being released for rookie tournaments, leagues like the AHL and ECHL continue to tweak their rosters for the upcoming seasons. We’ll keep track of the minor moves right here.

Vincent Dunn has agreed to terms with the ECHL’s Orlando Solar Bears for the upcoming season according to comments he made to Marc Brassard of LeDroit. Dunn noted that playing for Orlando means he’s connected to former Gatineau Olympiques head coach Benoit Groulx, who is now with the Syracuse Crunch. The Crunch and Solar Bears are the minor league affiliates of the Tampa Bay Lightning, and will get some added toughness with Dunn, who was included in the Derick Brassard trade from Ottawa to Pittsburgh last season. The 22-year old’s entry-level contract expired at the end of the year, and Pittsburgh did not issue a new qualifying offer.
Brendan Woods and Jesse Graham have both signed one-year AHL contracts with the Utica Comets, keeping some minor league experience in the organization. Woods played 14 games for the Comets last season, while Graham suited up for the San Antonio Rampage. Both players should see considerable action for the Comets this season as they look to build on a good 2017-18 campaign.
Panthers unrestricted free agent Greg Chase has signed a one-year deal with Wichita of the ECHL. Florida acquired him in mid-December from the Oilers and used him with their AHL affiliate in Springfield but declined to tender him a qualifying offer in June. Prior to the trade, Chase was with Wichita as they are Edmonton’s ECHL affiliate.

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