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Archives for August 2018

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Pittsburgh Penguins

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Current Cap Hit: $78,480,000 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jake Guentzel (one year, $734K)

Potential Bonuses:

Guentzel: $133K

Guentzel’s first full NHL season was a strong one as he finished sixth on the team in scoring while showing he could play well in a top-six role.  That type of success has him poised to land a considerable raise on his next contract.  His situation somewhat mirrors that of Conor Sheary, who also largely came out of nowhere to show some chemistry with Sidney Crosby and be productive.  He landed $3MM per year on his second deal and that’s going to represent the floor for a new contract for Guentzel.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Derick Brassard $3MM, UFA*)
F Matt Cullen ($650K, UFA)
G Casey DeSmith ($675K, UFA)
F Derek Grant ($650K, UFA)
F Carl Hagelin ($4MM, UFA)
F Jimmy Hayes ($650K, UFA)
D Chad Ruhwedel ($650K, UFA)
F Riley Sheahan ($2.1MM, UFA)

* – Vegas is retaining an additional $2MM on Brassard’s deal

Pittsburgh paid a notable price to bring in Brassard late last season and the move didn’t exactly pay immediate dividends.  While he certainly gives them even more enviable depth down the middle, they’ve kicked around the idea of making him a top-six winger as well.  At either rate, Brassard should be able to command something slightly above the $5MM he’s currently making when he hits free agency which is going to probably make him too pricey to keep around.  Even if he plays at the wing next season, there will be plenty of teams that view him as a center and with the demand for that position only getting stronger, he will have plenty of suitors on the open market.

Hagelin’s addition (one that cost them David Perron and Adam Clendening) is one that the Penguins would probably like back in hindsight.  His speed is a real weapon but he has produced more like a third liner than a top-six forward.  Given how tight they are to the cap, they can’t have too many inefficiencies like that on their books.  Unless he’s willing to take a big pay cut, he likely won’t be back.  Sheahan fit in nicely after being acquired early on from Detroit.  He’ll slot in as the fourth line center (unless Brassard moves to the wing) which will limit his potential for a raise on his next contract.  DeSmith will hold down the fort as the backup while allowing Tristan Jarry to take advantage of his waiver exemption and play a starting role in the minors and then will likely cede his spot to Jarry for 2019-20.

As for the other four, none project to have a particularly notable role for the upcoming season and are basically just cheap roster fillers.  They’ll either be retained around that rate for next year or be replaced by someone else that’s willing to play for the league minimum (which moves to $700K in 2019-20).

Two Years Remaining

G Matt Murray ($3.75MM, RFA)
D Justin Schultz ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Dominik Simon ($750K, RFA)
F Daniel Sprong ($750K, RFA)

Murray’s first full season as the undisputed starter for Pittsburgh didn’t quite go as well as anticipated.  He struggled to stay healthy and wasn’t quite as effective as he was the year before.  If that continues, his next contract wouldn’t be for much more than his current one.  However, if he establishes himself as a high-end number one starter within the next two years, he could double his current deal (and potentially then some).  Needless to say, he’ll have a lot on the line over the next 24 months.

Schultz wasn’t able to come close to repeating his performance from the year before, the one that earned him his current contract.  They’ll be counting on him to rebound next season and if that doesn’t happen, he’ll start to be involved in trade speculation before too long.  Simon and Sprong are both youngsters that will be looking to establish themselves as full-time NHL players.  Assuming that happens over the next two seasons, they should be in line for a decent raise; Sprong has the higher-end earning potential if he can lock down a top-six spot over that stretch.

Three Years Remaining

D Jamie Oleksiak ($2.138MM, UFA)

Oleksiak fit in nicely after being acquired in a midseason deal from Dallas.  He’ll slot in on their third pairing and while that cap hit may be a little high for someone that’s likely to be a number six defender, they’ll certainly be pleased with having a bit more stability in that role after rotating a few different players through that spot in recent years.

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Minor Transactions: 8/13/18

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It was relatively quiet today on the NHL transaction front but a pair of former NHL centers find themselves in the news.

  • Capitals UFA center Zach Sill has signed a one-year contract with Sparta Praha, the Czech Extraliga team announced (link in Czech). The 30-year-old was largely an NHL regular back in 2014-15 with Pittsburgh and Toronto but has spent the bulk of his time in the minors since then.  Last season, Sill suited up in all 76 games with Hershey of the AHL, recording 22 points and 60 penalty minutes.
  • Roman Lyubimov, who remains property of the Flyers, was released by CSKA Moscow, per an announcement by the KHL (link in Russian). The 26-year-old center played in 47 games for Philadelphia back in 2016-17 but opted to go back home following the season but they still tendered him a qualifying offer to retain his rights.  Lyubimov will likely now look to land elsewhere in the KHL but if the Flyers have any interest in bringing him back to North America, they will probably be in touch with him as well.

Snapshots: Lafreniere, Belmont, Nylander

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The World Junior Summer Showcase and Hlinka-Gretzky tournaments are now over, and junior aged players will soon be heading back to their respective teams to get the season underway. The summer headlines were dominated by performances by Jack Hughes, but one young talent may have impressed even more. Alexis Lafreniere won’t be eligible for selection in the NHL Entry Draft until 2020, but could already be one of Canada’s top forwards at the upcoming World Junior tournament. Craig Button of TSN believes the 16-year old Lafreniere should be at the selection camp and could easily climb out of a “13th forward” role normally given to underaged players.

Lafreniere already has a full season in the QMJHL under his belt despite not turning 17 until October and he registered 42 goals which ranked sixth in the entire league. There’s no doubt he’s already one of the CHL’s most talented offensive players, which may lead to a starring role at the late December tournament despite his age. Though teams often try to load up on as many 19-year old players as possible for the U20 tournament, the potential first-overall pick in 2020 could shake things up with a good first part of the CHL season.

  • Anyone that might have been worried about the progress of the New York Islanders future home at Belmont Park can rest easy, as Lou Lamoriello today told Brian Compton of NHL.com that the arena plans are still “100 percent” on track for 2021. The new building will give the Islanders a permanent home and a chance to build some organizational consistency moving forward, something they’ve lacked in recent years. With the John Tavares era over, and a bunch of new voices running the show in Lamoriello and head coach Barry Trotz, the Islanders are trying to turn things around and get back to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in more than thirty years.
  • William Nylander remains without a contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but James Mirtle of The Athletic was on TSN Radio where he explained the two sides may wait until much closer to training camp next month to sign a deal. Mirtle suggests that it would likely be either a two-year or six-year contract, given that a seven or eight-year pact would likely get too pricey for the Maple Leafs. Dylan Larkin’s new $6.1MM cap hit is brought up as a “pressure point” which we’ve noted in the past, and could drive Nylander’s price up even further if the Maple Leafs intend on buying out any unrestricted free agent years. Toronto heads to camp in a month, and would presumably like to have their final restricted free agent under contract and in uniform on the first day.

Ottawa Senators Officially Sign Brady Tkachuk

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Though the news had already broken over the last few days, the Ottawa Senators today officially announced the three-year entry-level contract for top pick Brady Tkachuk. The fourth-overall selection in the 2018 draft, Tkachuk has turned down an opportunity to return to Boston University this season and instead will sign his first professional contract. Senators GM Pierre Dorion released a glowing statement about his newest prospect:

Brady Tkachuk exemplifies all the attributes around which we want to improve the Ottawa Senators. He is a young man of exceptional character. We know how much he agonized over leaving Boston University, and we are encouraged by the degree of accountability and commitment this shows from him. Through tenacity, combativeness and work ethic, he also exemplifies leadership skills that we know will benefit the team now and well into the future. Most of all, Brady has shown us through his maturity that he is coachable, committed to teamwork, and determined to help us strengthen our team chemistry. For all these reasons, he is an exciting young player whose growth and development we are eager to support.

Though Tkachuk has signed and is now ineligible to return to BU, it doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be playing with Ottawa this season. He could now be sent to the London Knights of the OHL—where his brother played prior to jumping to the NHL—or the AHL Belleville Senators to work on his game at the minor league level. Though he is 6’3″ already and can dominate physically against players his age, jumping to the professional ranks will be an entirely new challenge and could lead to some real struggles. That’s the decision the Senators will have to make, though they can basically wait as long as they want. After ten games in the NHL the first year of Tkachuk’s entry-level deal will be burned, but the team could keep him up to 40 before moving him a year closer to unrestricted free agency. If they believe he can help the NHL team right away and isn’t overwhelmed by the grind of a professional schedule, perhaps we’ll see him in Ottawa all season.

Interestingly though the Knights have just brought back Mark Hunter into the day-to-day fold as General Manager, and the franchise comes with a long history of convincing high profile talent to spend at least one year in the OHL. Matthew Tkachuk was a star forward coming through the US National Team Development program playing with the likes of Auston Matthews and Jack Roslovic and had ties to Notre Dame (where he was once committed) and both Boston University and Boston College before deciding to head to the OHL for one season. That season, where he scored 107 points and was a big part of a Memorial Cup title, jumped him up to sixth overall in the 2016 draft and prepared him for life with the Calgary Flames. More so than any other CHL team the Knights bring with them a professional-type atmosphere and churn out NHL talent on a regular basis.

Tampa Bay Lightning Enter Partnership With Orlando Solar Bears

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After the Toronto Maple Leafs had changed their ECHL affiliation to the Newfoundland Growlers for the upcoming season, the Orlando Solar Bears were without an NHL partner. No more, as the Tampa Bay Lightning have announced a three-year affiliation agreement with the ECHL club that will give them an excellent geographical advantage. The Solar Bears have been a solid ECHL organization since joining the league in 2012, posting winning records in five of the six seasons and qualifying for the playoffs in four of them.

While the ECHL isn’t quite at the level of the AHL, more and more it is being filled with legitimate NHL prospects that have either a very focused developmental mission or just need more ice time than they would get at the next level. The Lightning have a perfect example of that in Yanni Gourde, who was considered too small by many and had to spent parts of two seasons in the ECHL during the beginning of his professional career. Gourde has battled all the way to the NHL where he recorded 25 goals and 64 points in his first full season and looks like he’ll have a long career.

Poll: Who Are The Best Defensemen In The NHL?

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Last week the hockey world exploded into debate when the NHL Network released their list of the Top 20 Centers in the league. They had Connor McDavid ahead of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin at the top of the list, while others like Jonathan Toews were left off completely. At PHR we did our own poll in which readers were asked to rank the ten best, and after more than 10,000 votes the list looked quite different. The PHR community-voted Top 20 Center list currently looks like this:

  1. Sidney Crosby (1,213 votes)
  2. Connor McDavid (1,127 votes)
  3. Evgeni Malkin (817 votes)
  4. John Tavares (797 votes)
  5. Patrice Bergeron (732 votes)
  6. Auston Matthews (696 votes)
  7. Nathan MacKinnon (689 votes)
  8. Steven Stamkos (596 votes)
  9. Anze Kopitar (591 votes)
  10. Mark Scheifele (435 votes)
  11. Tyler Seguin (401 votes)
  12. Evgeny Kuznetsov (335 votes)
  13. Jonathan Toews (307 votes)
  14. Nicklas Backstrom (301 votes)
  15. Jack Eichel (237 votes)
  16. Aleksander Barkov (160 votes)
  17. Ryan Getzlaf (156 votes)
  18. Ryan O’Reilly (100 votes)
  19. Sean Couturier (99 votes)
  20. Mathew Barzal (85 votes)

Today, the network released their ranking of the Top 20 Defensemen in the NHL right now. At the very top is Victor Hedman, who has established himself as not only one of the best two-way defensemen in recent history, but an absolute superstar for the Tampa Bay Lightning capable of taking home a Norris trophy in any season. Hedman took home the trophy for the 2017-18 season after averaging nearly 26 minutes a night and recording 63 points in 77 games. Behind him though will bring plenty of controversy, as the rest of the list contains some interesting decisions and leaves out several seemingly deserving candidates.

Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns and P.K. Subban, winners of four out of the five previous Norris trophies before Hedman took home this year’s award round out the top five. Duncan Keith, who won his second Norris in 2013-14, is nowhere to be found on the list after a down year with the Chicago Blackhawks. Taking up spots previously given to older players like Keith are a handful of youngsters, including Zach Werenski, Seth Jones, and Charlie McAvoy.

Just like the center debate, we’d like to ask you at PHR who you think deserves to be on the list. Can others like Ivan Provorov, Hampus Lindholm, Mattias Ekholm or Marc-Edouard Vlasic make it into the top group? Once again we’ll ask you to cast your vote by selecting 10 names. Makes sure to leave a comment below on who you think deserves to be recognized, or your thoughts on how the center poll ended. We’ve included many of the names that could be considered, but if you think we’ve missed someone important make to to leave his name down below.

[Mobile users click here to vote!]

Morning Notes: 2019 Draft, Schedule, Karlsson

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The 2019 NHL Entry Draft is ten months away and there will be plenty of speculation on who should be selected in the first round. Already prospect gurus are beginning to release their early lists, which almost all have Jack Hughes as the easy first-overall selection. Craig Button of TSN released his early top five at the end of the Hlinka-Gretzky tournament, and started with Russian forward Vasili Podkolzin in the fifth overall spot. Podkolzin had a great U18 tournament with 11 points in five games, and is starting to put together all the talent and skill that people have been waiting for.

Scott Wheeler of The Athletic (subscription required) released a more in-depth list for 2019, breaking down more than two dozen players who could find themselves selected in the first round next June. Wheeler goes with the consensus in spot number two and lists Kaapo Kakko as the easy selection after Hughes is off the board. The Finnish forward is almost pro-ready and looks like he’ll be a dominant puck-protecting forward for a long time.

  • For any readers in the United States, NBC has released their national broadcast schedule for the 2018-19 season which will include a record 109 games. Wednesday Night Hockey will now feature regular double headers and include a variety of teams from around the league. The first such occasion will kick off the season on Wednesday, October 3rd when the Washington Capitals welcome in the Boston Bruins and the Anaheim Ducks travel to San Jose to face the Sharks. Kevin Allen of USA Today provides the whole broadcast schedule.
  • Count at least one member of the Ottawa Senators that doesn’t want to see Erik Karlsson traded before the season begins. Thomas Chabot, a young defensemen trying to round out his game at the NHL level, spoke out about his hope to see Karlsson in uniform when the season begins. There has been very little smoke surrounding Karlsson of late, and if he does begin the year with the Senators there might be a good chance that Chabot is the player lined up beside him on the blue line. Though different players, Chabot told media at his charity golf tournament that he is trying to model his game after the Senators captain and doesn’t think anyone could replace Karlsson if they did move him.

Noah Dobson Signs Entry-Level Contract

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Fresh off his incredible performance at the World Junior Summer Showcase, Noah Dobson has now signed his first professional contract. The New York Islanders today announced a three-year entry-level contract for Dobson, which could still slide forward if he is sent back to the QMJHL for this season.

That doesn’t seem guaranteed at this point simply because of the Islanders’ lack of depth on defense, though it has hisorically been quite rare for a pick outside the top-10 to jump right to the NHL a few months after being drafted. Dobson, the 12th-overall pick in June, also won the Memorial Cup this past season with the Acadie-Bathurst Titan and could easily be in the running for CHL Defenseman of the Year if he returns. His 69 points in 67 games already put him second in QMJHL scoring among defensemen last season, and his offense isn’t even really his calling card. For Dobson it is his all-around defensive ability that turns so many heads, given that a polished game at that end of the rink is so rarely seen in young players. There’s little that Dobson can’t do on the ice, and his game should translate well to the NHL when he’s finally given that chance.

Along with Oliver Wahlstrom, Bode Wilde and Ruslan Iskhakov, Dobson is part of an outstanding draft class for the Islanders that could help them fill in the talent gaps left by John Tavares signing with Toronto this summer. While the team will build around Mathew Barzal as their next superstar and face of the franchise, the 2018 draft will be expected to play big roles very quickly. Dobson will get a chance to impress at the Islanders’ upcoming training camp, but will be a lock for the Canadian World Junior team if he’s sent back to the CHL.

Kevin Rooney Re-Signs With New Jersey Devils

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The New Jersey Devils have inked one of their final few restricted free agents, signing Kevin Rooney to a two-year contract. Rooney will have a two-way deal worth $700K in the NHL level during the 2018-19 season, and a one-way contract worth $700K in 2019-20.

Rooney, 25, has been a good minor league soldier for the Devils since signing as an undrafted free agent out of Providence College in 2016. That first contract was of the AHL variety, but he turned it into an NHL entry-level deal during the 2016-17 season in order to play four games for New Jersey. He spent almost the entire year in the minors again last season, but was a responsible two-way forward for the Binghamton Devils even while the team struggled to find much success on the ice.

That’s the role he’ll likely continue to play, though he’ll be rewarded with a one-way salary in the second year of this deal. It will take him through to unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2020, but for now Binghamton is the most likely destination for Rooney. Still waiver-exempt for this season, he can pass freely up and down as needed and be an injury replacement for the Devils. He’ll be looking for his first NHL point if he is given any opportunity, something he hasn’t been able to register in his five career games.

Five Key Stories: 8/6/18 – 8/12/18

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While the activity around the league has slowed down as we’re well into the summer, there was still some notable news in recent days.  Here’s a rundown of the top stories from the past week.

Six Years For Dvorak: The Coyotes typically don’t hand out too many long-term contracts but they made an exception with youngster Christian Dvorak as they inked the center to a six-year, $26.7MM contract.  The 22-year-old followed up a strong rookie season with a very similar sophomore campaign as he collected 15 goals and 22 assists in 37 games.  Giving someone with those types of numbers a $4.45MM AAV has raised some eyebrows but it’s clear that GM John Chayka believes that Dvorak has another level to his game and that the asking price would have higher if they waited until after next season to get a deal done.

Tkachuk To Forego Remaining NCAA Eligibility: Brady Tkachuk had set a deadline to make a decision about whether he would sign with Ottawa or return for his sophomore year at Boston College.  The fourth overall pick has opted to sign with the Sens which eliminates his remaining college eligibility.  The question now becomes where the winger will play in 2018-19.  While he could potentially play regularly with the Senators, they could also opt to assign him to their AHL affiliate in Belleville or to the London Knights of the OHL who have his junior rights.

Wild To Wait On Staal Extension: While several teams are looking to lock up their prominent potential unrestricted free agents a year early, Minnesota will be taking a different approach when it comes to center Eric Staal.  The team plans to shelve any thought of a new deal until the season gets underway where new GM Paul Fenton can evaluate if he’s still going to be part of their plans moving forward while also hedging against a regression from his 42-goal, 76-point 2017-18 campaign.  Staal has been a major bargain on his current contract which pays $3.5MM per year, well below market value for someone producing like a top pivot.

Larkin Locked Up: Detroit got their top remaining restricted free agent locked up by signing center Dylan Larkin to a five-year, $30.5MM contract.  The deal gets their top point getter from last season signed at a good rate but the term is a little curious as it only buys out one season of UFA eligibility.  Larkin will be eligible to hit the open market at 27 which should have him well-positioned for an even bigger deal at that time.  For the time being, the Red Wings now project to be about $3.2MM over the salary cap but that could be alleviated and then some if center Henrik Zetterberg is unable to play next season.  GM Ken Holland acknowledged that their captain has been dealing with continued back problems which makes his status uncertain for October.  If he winds up on LTIR along with Johan Franzen, Detroit will wind up being well under the cap to start 2018-19.

Mikita Passes Away: Long-time Blackhawk and Hall of Fame winger Stan Mikita passed away at the age of 78.  He ranks 14th all-time in scoring with 1,467 career points in 1,397 career games and won a pair of Hart Trophies as well as a  Stanley Cup title back in 1961.  He still holds several records in Chicago including assists, points, games played, and plus/minus while sitting second in goals.  Mikita’s presence is still being felt today as he was one of the first to use a curved blade on his stick, something that is now commonplace today.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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