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Atlantic Notes: Larkin, Lightning, Moore

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The Detroit Red Wings have two options in regards to signing restricted free agent Dylan Larkin this summer. The team could go short-term or long-term. With a solid, but hardly spectacular season, the Red Wings might want to wait and see how the 21-year-old develops over the next year or two and hand out short contracts to see if he’s worth the money. That makes sense considering the team is capped out with so many long-term deals having been handed out to veterans over the past few years.

However, NBC Sports’ James O’Brien writes that the team needs to look at the long-term option instead and lock up Larkin as quick as possible as he compares Larkin’s situation to that of Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers, who signed an eight-year, $68MM deal a year ago, which is starting to look like a bargain after the many signings since then.

Larkin, who has shown that he’s one of the few answers in Detroit still hasn’t broken out with the Red Wings. While his rookie campaign showed plenty of promise with 23 goals, he’s failed to duplicate that number since. However, while he did just tally 16 goals a season ago, his 47 assists was a career-high along with his 63 points, suggesting he might be due for a breakout season. Signing Larkin to a long-term deal now while his value isn’t through the roof might be better than waiting another two years when they will be forced to shell out top dollar in the future with the cap constantly increasing.

  • While it’s already been reported that the eight-year, $76MM extension that Nikita Kucherov signed will not take the Tampa Bay Lightning out of a potential Erik Karlsson trade, the team will have to make some moves if it does pull the trigger on a trade as the team has less than $3MM in cap space for this coming year. Brandon Schlager of the Sporting News writes that the most obvious candidates that would have to be moved would be forwards Ryan Callahan ($5.8MM AAV for two more years), Tyler Johnson ($5MM for six more years), Alex Killorn ($4.45MM for five more years) and defenseman Braydon Coburn ($3.7MM for one year).
  • Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe attempts to break down what the Boston Bruins defense will look like next season as well as what the team should expect out of their top free agent target, John Moore. The scribe writes that general manager Don Sweeney hasn’t struck gold yet with his long-term free agent deals, pointing to the contracts handed out to Matt Beleskey and David Backes. Beleskey was an outright failure, while Backes has been average, at best. Moore is just 27 years old and will be playing already for his fifth team, which isn’t a good sign. What the team’s plans are for his usage is also unknown as if the team intends to put him on the team’s second-line defensive pairings, then the team would force either Torey Krug or Brandon Carlo to the third-line pairing, which doesn’t make sense either unless the team intends to move Krug. However, there is still no proof that Moore is good enough to be a top-four player.

Central Notes: Maroon, Predators, Kruger

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The St. Louis Blues had one of the best offseasons in the league when they managed to acquire Ryan O’Reilly, Tyler Bozak, David Perron with in the first few days of the start of free agency. The fact they were able to add those players without mortgaging their future prospects, make their offseason that much more successful. However, when the team signed winger Patrick Maroon to a one-year, $1.75MM deal, the team really looked at their offseason as a roaring success.

Maroon, who opted to give up both money and term so he could sign with his home-town Blues, could easily have gotten both elsewhere. Maroon, who made $2MM last year, has scored 44 goals in the past two years, making the 6-foot-3 physical forward an excellent, inexpensive addition. However, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Jeff Gordon writes don’t be surprised if Maroon gets an extension before the 2018-19 season ends. It’s likely the team will give him that deserved money and term when the team’s salary cap situation improves next season.

A lot of that will depend on how Maroon plays next season. The 30-year-old will likely find himself on the team’s third line, which could prove challenging to put up big numbers in. However, with his experience and ability to play along with top-line talent like he did alongside Connor McDavid in Edmonton, Maroon could easily find himself in a top-six role if injuries develop or lines don’t produce like the team hopes.

  • In a mailbag segment, the Tennessean’s Adam Vingan writes that he wonders whether the Nashville Predators insistence on not including no-movement clauses is what’s hurting the team from signing top free agents to their team. In fact, the scribe wonders whether the team can keep that policy up when it comes to re-signing defenseman Ryan Ellis. The problem with refusing to include no-movement clauses into contracts is that players will often take less money to stay with the Predators due to the lack of a state tax in Tennessee. However, the issue that many players have is that if the team trades them and the player then doesn’t receive the tax benefits. Only goaltender Pekka Rinne has a no-movement clause.
  • Mark Lazerus of The Chicago Sun-Times writes that despite the team lack of success when bringing back former Stanley Cup Champions to their lineup, the acquisition of Marcus Kruger is a minimal risk. The veteran forward, who was acquired in the Marian Hossa deal with the Arizona Coyotes, is in the last year of a three-year, $9.25MM deal in which he will only cost them $2.775MM against the cap. The forward struggled in Carolina last year, posting just six points in 48 games and played some time in the AHL as well. However, it turns out he played most of the season with a sports hernia injury. At just 28 years of age, the team should be thrilled if they can get some quality minutes out of him on the team’s fourth line.

 

East Notes: Karlsson, Devils, Kotkaniemi

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Ottawa’s contract extension offer to defenseman Erik Karlsson came in close to the $11MM per year that Drew Doughty received from the Kings, reports Chris Stevenson of The Athletic (subscription required).  Previously, it was reported that the Senators had offered an eight-year deal worth $10MM per season.

However, one of the reported concerns Karlsson had with the offer was the lack of signing bonuses.  The inclusion of high signing bonuses with low salaries has picked up considerably in recent years, most notably with the John Tavares contract with Toronto earlier this month.  Whether the Senators weren’t willing to put them in or they were leaving it as something to potentially be negotiated remains to be seen but the quick rejection of that offer has led to an increase in trade speculation, especially since other teams have received permission to speak with Karlsson’s camp about an extension.

Elsewhere in the East:

  • The Devils plan to finalize their coaching staff within the next week or so, head coach John Hynes told reporters, including Chris Ryan of NJ Advance Media. New Jersey has a pair of vacancies to fill after Geoff Ward left to take the same role with Calgary while Ryane Clowe was named head coach of Newfoundland’s new ECHL team, an affiliate of Toronto.
  • While the Canadiens are eligible to send their top pick from the draft to the AHL level, that does not appear to be in their plans. In a mailbag column on Montreal’s team website, GM Marc Bergevin stated that if center Jesperi Kotkaniemi does not make the opening night NHL roster out of training camp, they will opt to loan him back to Assat in Finland over sending him to AHL Laval.  Kotkaniemi spent all of last season with Assat and finished third on the team in scoring with 29 points which helped make him the third overall pick last month.

Oilers Only Working On A Short-Term Deal With Darnell Nurse

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The Oilers are focusing on strictly a short-term contract with restricted free agent defenseman Darnell Nurse, his agent Anton Thun told Postmedia’s Jim Matheson.  Thun acknowledged that an offer has been made but their salary cap situation will restrict their options on this deal:

“They’ve sent us a proposal and we’ll see where that goes.  I don’t see with their cap space being what it is that they can entice us with much term.”

Presently, the Oilers have just shy of $5MM in cap room, per CapFriendly with a total of 21 players under contract on their projected NHL roster.  They may want to add another depth option and keep some money freed up for injury recalls or in-season trading so unless they want to move someone out to open up extra cap space, they’re restricted to a bridge contract.

The 23-year-old is coming off of his best NHL season which certainly helps his case.  Nurse led all Edmonton defensemen in points last season with 26 (more than his previous two years combined) while seeing his playing time jump by more than five minutes a night compared to 2016-17.

At this point, the discussion is basically whether to sign him for one year or two.  If they go with a one-year pact, he will be in this same situation again next summer but will have arbitration eligibility, something that isn’t the case now.  On the flip side, with having Andrej Sekera, Adam Larsson, and Oscar Klefbom all back to full health to start the season, there’s a decent chance his playing time will dip which could offset the potential gain from having the ability to file for arbitration. Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the two sides work out a two-year agreement in the weeks to come with an eye on a much longer-term pact two summers from now.

Minor Transactions: 7/14/18

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With qualifying offers set to expire in just over 24 hours, a lot of AHL players are putting pen to paper on new contracts.  We’ll keep tabs on those moves here.

  • Colorado has inked defenseman Mason Geertsen to a one-year deal, CapFriendly reports on Twitter. Instead of accepting his qualifying offer, Geertsen took a league minimum cap hit at the NHL level in exchange for a boost in his AHL pay from $70K to $85K.  The 23-year-old spent all of last season with the Avalanche’s minor league affiliate in San Antonio, recording three goals and six assists along with 117 penalty minutes in 72 games.
  • The Penguins have put pen to paper with two of their remaining restricted free agents.  CapFriendly reports (Twitter link) that the team has inked defenseman Ethan Prow and center Thomas DiPauli to one-year, two-way deals.  Prow receives a $650K salary in the NHL and $90K in the minors while DiPauli gets a $650K NHL salary and a $100K AHL salary while the deal contains a total $125K guarantee.  Both players spent last season with Pittsburgh’s AHL affiliate in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.

Columbus Re-Signs Ryan Murray

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The Blue Jackets have locked up one of their remaining restricted free agents, announcing that defenseman Ryan Murray has accepted his qualifying offer.  That means he will make $2.825MM for the 2018-19 season.  GM Jarmo Kekalainen had the following statement about the signing:

“Ryan is a talented, young defenseman with terrific puck-moving abilities.  He has battled some injuries early in his career, but we believe he has overcome those and will be an important part of our blueline this season.”

As Kekalainen alluded to, injuries were once again a concern for the often banged up blueliner as he missed nearly half of last season with a back injury.  As a result, he played in just 44 games (his fewest since 2014-15) and picked up a dozen points (1-11-12) while averaging 18:26 per night.  He was called on to play more in the postseason as his ATOI jumped to 21:32 per game.

While Murray hasn’t lived up to his draft billing (he was the second-overall pick in 2012), he has been a capable fourth or fifth defender thus far in his career.  There’s a decent chance he will be asked to take on a bit larger of a role next season following the departures of Jack Johnson (Penguins) and Ian Cole (Avalanche) in free agency.

His back injury likely played a big role in Murray’s decision to simply take the qualifying offer as he didn’t have a ton of leverage for a raise, something that may have helped him decide to not file for arbitration as well.  He will once again be a restricted free agent next summer with arbitration rights.

The Blue Jackets now have a little more than $8MM in remaining cap space per CapFriendly with only winger Oliver Bjorkstrand in need of a new contract.  The first-time RFA will see his $735K qualifying offer expire at 4 PM CST tomorrow and he does not have any arbitration rights.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rangers Re-Sign Rob O’Gara

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With the deadline to accept qualifying offers now just a day away, Rangers defenseman Rob O’Gara has accepted his qualifier, reports CapFriendly (Twitter link).  The deal will pay just over $874K in the NHL (105% of his base salary from last season) and $70K at the minor league level.

New York acquired O’Gara back in February from Boston in exchange for defenseman Nick Holden (who has since signed with Vegas in free agency).  Prior to the trade, he spent most of last season with the Bruins AHL affiliate in Providence, suiting up in 43 games while playing just eight times with Boston.

Following the trade, he became a regular on New York’s third pairing, playing in 22 games while averaging a respectable 17:10 in ice time.  Considering that the Rangers have not really done much to add to their back end this summer (aside from adding Fredrik Claesson), O’Gara has a good chance to reprise that role next season which likely played a role in him merely accepting his qualifying offer over negotiating a lower NHL salary in exchange for more guaranteed pay in the AHL.  If he fails to make the team, he will gave to clear waivers in order to go back to the minors.

Kings Sign Zack Mitchell

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The Kings have dipped their toes into the minor league free agent market.  CapFriendly reports (Twitter link) that they have signed winger Zack Mitchell to a one-year, two-way contract.  The deal pays the league minimum salary of $650K at the NHL level and $150K in the minors.

Mitchell had spent the previous four seasons in Minnesota’s system after they signed him as an undrafted free agent back in 2014 but was eligible for Group VI unrestricted free agency this summer.

Last season, Mitchell spent most of his time at the minor league level, suiting up in 42 games with the Iowa Wild of the AHL.  He was fairly productive down there, picking up 16 goals and 17 assists in that span.  He also suited up in 23 games with Minnesota where he collected five points (3-2-5).

Although he was acquired as an unrestricted free agent, Mitchell could still potentially become a restricted free agent next summer.  He has played in 34 career NHL games thus far and if he suits up in 46 with the Kings this season, he will become a regular RFA.  If not, he will once again be a Group VI UFA next July.

Bruins Re-Sign Colby Cave

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The Bruins have locked up their lone remaining restricted free agent, announcing the re-signing of center Colby Cave to a two-year, two-way contract.  The deal carries a $675K cap hit meaning that it’s a minimum-salary deal at the NHL level while financial terms at the minor league level have not been disclosed.

Cave spent the bulk of last season with AHL Providence, notching 11 goals and 22 assists in 72 regular season games.  He has been quite consistent in his AHL career, picking up between 29 and 35 points in each of his three minor league campaigns.  He also made his NHL debut in 2017-18, getting into three games with Boston.

While Cave is no longer waiver-exempt, it’s likely that he will once again start next season in the minors and will work to be a potential call-up when injuries strike with the Bruins.

Marc-Andre Fleury Signs Three-Year Extension With Vegas Golden Knights

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Saturday: CapFriendly (via Twitter) provides a breakdown of the no-trade clause, noting that Fleury will be able to block a trade to ten teams each season.

Friday: The Vegas Golden Knights have locked up their goaltender, signing Marc-Andre Fleury to a three-year contract extension. Fleury still had one year remaining on his current contract, meaning this extension will kick in for the 2019-20 season. The deal will pay Fleury $21MM, and carry a cap hit of $7MM per season. It also includes a no-trade clause, though notably not a no-movement clause which was part of the reason Fleury ended up in Vegas in the first place. In the expansion draft process, teams were forced to protect players with no-movement clauses unless they agreed to waive it, something that Fleury did to help the Pittsburgh Penguins retain Matt Murray who would have been otherwise exposed. The Golden Knights won’t be in that same situation when the next expansion team comes around.

Instead, Fleury will continue to be the face of the NHL’s 31st franchise for a few more years. The 33-year old goaltender registered arguably the best season of his NHL career in 2017-18, when he fought through injury to lead the Golden Knights on a deep playoff run. In the regular season Fleury posted a .927 save percentage, the best full-season number of his career, and followed it up with the same number in the playoffs. That 20-game playoff run included four shutouts and just 47 goals allowed en route to a Stanley Cup Finals appearance in the franchise’ first season. Fleury is earning $5.75MM in the final year of his current contract but will get a healthy raise next year. Frank Seravalli of TSN gives us the yearly breakdown of the three-year extension:

  • 2019-20: $8.5MM
  • 2020-21: $6.5MM
  • 2021-22: $6.0MM

Indeed there is more to Fleury than his on-ice performance. He, James Neal and Deryk Engelland were immediately raised up as the new faces of the Golden Knights organization, the first two for their star power and the latter for his ties to the community. Though that moniker may now be shifting to younger stars like William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault and Nate Schmidt, who broke out as legitimate stars this season, Fleury remains a big part of the marketing strategy for Vegas. His personality and charm have been raised up as something to celebrate for the Golden Knights, and with his healthy on-ice performance backing it up he has become an even bigger star than he was in Pittsburgh—despite having won three Stanley Cups with the Penguins.

That explains some of why the team gave him a huge raise, but this contract doesn’t come without concerns. The fact that Fleury had a career year for the Golden Knights helped them find great success, but it also likely means he won’t be able to replicate or improve on his numbers going forward. He’ll turn 34 before the first year of the extension kicks in, and 35 soon after it does. Goaltenders—especially elite ones—can often hold on to their peak performance longer than the average player, but with Fleury’s history of injury and already relatively long career there could be a big drop off coming. Fleury of course broke into the NHL at the age of 18 after being selected first overall and has already played in 737 regular season NHL games, good for 22nd all-time. Add in his 135 playoff contests (which rank sixth all-time) and he’s already played more than an entire career’s worth for many goaltenders.

The question then becomes does Vegas actually suffer financially if Fleury’s on-ice performance drops even somewhat. The $7MM cap hit would be incredibly difficult to swallow for many teams, but the Golden Knights are starting from nothing and have room to spare going forward. They’re still not close to reaching the salary cap ceiling in 2019-20, and can easily fit in an extension for Karlsson without trouble. The issue though comes on whether this is a model for sustained success. For all the Golden Knights accomplished this season, their prospect pipeline is still shallow despite some top-end names from the 2017 draft. After trading away several picks to add Tomas Tatar, they found themselves waiting until #61 to make a selection in 2018 and again until #99 to step up to the podium for a second time. Though they still have plenty of selections going forward, cap space and financial might was their biggest weapon in trade negotiations.

Fleury alone doesn’t remove that weapon, and in fact Vegas will still be able to hold some cap-pressed teams hostage if they want to. But with several of the moves over the last few months the team has come from one with almost no long-term money on the books, to one with quite a bit. A long-term deal for Karlsson, which will be buying out almost entirely free agent seasons will only increase the amount of future finances that are wrapped up, and limit their ability to weaponize that immense freedom and space.

Still, no one in Vegas is complaining today as they lock up one of their top performers. Without Fleury the Golden Knights may have been swept out of the playoffs early, and he certainly can provide plenty of experience and leadership during any potential struggles. The deal’s front-loaded nature would actually make it easier to move down the line if someone like Malcolm Subban takes a big step forward and assumes the starting role, and the team has more than enough room to handle it themselves. Still, Vegas has to be careful where they make their next few bets, or risk losing their house advantage.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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