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Archives for July 2018

Behind The Scenes Of The Jacob Trouba Arbitration Case

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Arbitration cases rarely go through the hearing stage in the NHL, so for Jacob Trouba and the Winnipeg Jets to have reached this point in their negotiations – on the first scheduled day of hearing dates no less – is a major surprise. TSN’s Sara Orlesky reports that the two sides did in fact sit down for their hearing with the arbitrator and that a decision will be handed down in the next 48 hours. The Jets and Trouba have until that decision is made to agree to a deal on their own terms, likely a long-term extension, otherwise they will be stuck with a one-year deal and have to go through the process once again next summer.

So what exactly did it look like in the hearing today? Likely not what many would think. While the player and team are present during presentations to the arbitrator, neither team executives nor the player’s representation are in charge of arguing the case. The NHL Players’ Association handles the player side, while the teams use one of three lawyers to present their side: Dan Rabinowitz and Andre Nowakowski of Miller-Thomson in Toronto or Andre Lepage of BFC in Montreal. Each side makes their case based on briefs that they have previously filed to both the opposing side and the arbitrator, bringing in exhibits to support their arguments as well. The briefs contain the salary figures sought; the Jets reportedly filed at $4MM and Trouba at $7MM. It is a wide spread for the abitrator to consider and he may decide at or in between those figures.

What is the content of the arguments? Also somewhat contrary to what one may think, the two sides spend little time actually arguing the merits of the player, at least in absolute terms. The backbone of a salary arbitration case is the comparable players. For Trouba, the NHLPA would generally have comparable players that make $7MM or more to show that their filing number is fair, while the team reps will use comparable players around $4MM or less to prove their value. Each side will identify strengths or weaknesses to the player and find comparables that they can use to strengthen those points. The use of concrete search criteria to choose comparable players is key and often results in both sides tweaking their criteria ever so much that it includes only player who benefit their case. There are also rules regarding the players used: they must be current contracts, they must be recent contracts, and they must be contracts signed by a player who was or would have been an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent. Any deviation from this criteria would seriously injure the persuasiveness of the use of that comparable player. Other things that cannot be considered are off-ice behavior, even including something like Trouba’s previous contract holdout, or the team’s salary cap or roster depth status, which the Jets wish they could use in this case.

So who might be comparables in the Trouba case? The filing numbers for both sides suggest that there could be a wide range of possibilities. Using only the most basic metrics – games played and points-per-game – players like Justin Schultz, Colton Parayko, and Tyson Barrie lie right in the middle of the two values at $5.5MM and either side might struggle to use them effectively. Unfortunately for the NHLPA, those appear to be their best options. The case for any might be percentage of the salary cap rather than actual salary, given the major jump this off-season. Players like Torey Krug, Jared Spurgeon, Sami Vatanen and Dmitry Orlov would favor the Jets slightly more, but their home run option is likely a player like David Savard at $4.25MM.

After all the comparables have been presented, arguments have been made, and rebuttals and closing comments have been heard, the arbitrator will take his time to make the decision on just how much Trouba is worth based on everything he has witnessed. During that time, the two sides – who have also been enlightened to some extent – also come back together and talk contract terms. In recent years, hearings have more often than not led to independent agreements and not official decisions. Will it be the same for Jacob Trouba and the Winnipeg Jets? We will know soon enough.

What Happened To The Antoine Vermette Market?

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Approaching July 1st this year, one name had been given a somewhat surprising amount of attention. Veteran center Antoine Vermette, who was coming off the least productive season of his long career, was nevertheless reported to be a target of several teams by several different sources. TVA’s Renaud Lavoie went so far as to say that with a high demand for centermen, there was “significant interest” across the league in Vermette. Yet, three weeks later, he remains a free agent with little to no discussion of any potential landing spots.

What could have caused Vermette’s market to fall apart? It could be that many teams taking a look at the two-way pivot were able to land superior options, while others found comparable players at a cheaper price. Vermette hasn’t made under $1MM in a season since 2006 and at 36 years old he may not have been willing to return to that price point to extend his career. However, several other unrestricted free agent centers with similar (and superior) 2017-18 production have signed at cap hit between the $650K minimum and Vermette’s previous $1.75MM salary. They include Matt Cullen and Derek Grant to the Pittsburgh Penguins, Kyle Brodziak to the Edmonton Oilers, and Vermette’s Anaheim teammate Chris Wagner to the Boston Bruins, as well as Connor Brickley to the Nashville Predators, Paul Carey to the Ottawa Senators, and Michael Sgarbossa to the Washington Capitals. That’s at least six teams who likely kicked the tires on Vermette but may have found a better fit at an more comfortable price in who they decided to sign.

The other possibility is that the market was overblown in the first place. It did seem as though Vermette was slowing down substantially last season. The 14-year veteran recorded eight goals and eight assists for 16 points with the Ducks last season; each of those marks is Vermette’s lowest since his rookie year in 2003-04. His physicality tailed off and he was not as successful with his trademark defensive play, lagging in turnovers and zone exits and posting career-low possession numbers. Vermette was still dominant at the face-off dot, but teams may have been overplaying that one trait and Vermette’s years of experience, when other options with higher potential for offense and defense were waiting for them on the open market.

It could be that Vermette’s name value alone lands him a job this summer. It may be that he was overpricing himself early on to teams or that the market simply never developed, but it seems unlikely that if the well-respected and well-traveled center wanted to play next season, that he couldn’t find a shot somewhere. However, the demand is not what it once was in the past and not what it was made out to be earlier this month. Perhaps Vermette’s time to hang up the skate has come.

Rasmus Kupari Loaned To Finland

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Though there was little expectation that Rasmus Kupari would spend this season with the Los Angeles Kings, the team officially announced today that the young forward has been loaned to Karpat of the Finnish Liiga for this season. That means the entry-level deal he signed just a week ago will slide by one year and (potentially) begin in the 2019-20 season.

Kupari was selected 20th overall by the Kings in June and could have gone even higher based on his skill and position. With experience at center in a professional league, Kupari could end up being one of the best at the position in this draft, especially if his offensive game blossoms in Finland this year. The 18-year old spent almost the whole year at the highest level last season, recording 14 points in 39 games against players sometimes ten years his senior while almost exclusively playing in the middle. He’s just starting to fill out a 6’1″ frame that gives him a nice wingspan to use his incredible puck skills and offensive talent.

Los Angeles is creating quite a crop of young talent, and Kupari should be recognized as one of the gems in their system. While we won’t see him in North America full-time this year, he’s a lock to be at the World Juniors in Vancouver at the end of the year. His star has shone brightly on the international stage before, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him among the point leaders in the tournament if given the opportunity this year.

Poll: Who Will Be The Next Big Name To Be Traded?

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We’re getting close to the slowest time of the year for NHL news, as arbitration cases start to be wrapped up and teams are finished their free agent shopping. Through August there won’t be a ton of intrigue in terms of new contracts, but it’s shaping up to be a very interesting month with regards to the trade market.

The biggest name remains Erik Karlsson, the Ottawa Senators captain who is heading into the final year of his current contract. Still a superstar defenseman, Karlsson could command a huge package from nearly any team in the league if he’s willing to sign an extension, but his feelings on the situation still aren’t entirely clear. Now 28 years old, Karlsson has always maintained his love for the city of Ottawa and it’s not exactly apparent where else he would want to spend the next chapter of his life and career. To give up a package including top prospects, an acquiring team would want to know they have him for more than just one year.

Other than Karlsson though, there are other huge names still floating out there. Artemi Panarin, Max Pacioretty and Jeff Skinner have all been rumored as available in one sense or another and could supply a big offensive boost to any acquiring team. Panarin especially could draw a huge package given his overall offensive repertoire, but all three are marked with the same issue that hurts Karlsson’s trade value—each of them has just one year left on their current deals.

It seems unlikely that all of them will begin the year on their current teams, but the market has been quiet for some time as teams deal with other things. That might change in August after arbitration ends, and teams have a full concept of where their financial situation and roster structure has landed. Who do you think will be the first to move? We’ve included a list of oft-rumored players, but feel free to share your idea in the comments below!

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Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings Progressing Towards Contract

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The Detroit Red Wings already reached new contracts this summer with players like Anthony Mantha, Andreas Athanasiou and Tyler Bertuzzi, but have one key restricted free agent still remaining. That’s Dylan Larkin, who may be the most talented player on the Red Wings roster an a core piece of what the team wants to do going forward. Without arbitration rights there isn’t much of a rush to get a Larkin deal done, but Craig Custance of The Athletic reports that there is little doubt on the player’s side that something will get done in the next few weeks. Larkin told Custance that he doesn’t think negotiations will continue into September, though obviously nothing is guaranteed at this point.

Custance opines that the deal will be around five or six years, meaning Larkin would be giving up some of his scheduled unrestricted free agent seasons. Despite Larkin still only being 21 years old, he is on track to hit UFA status four years from now when he’s 25. Any years included in a deal past that would start to dramatically increase the contract’s cap hit, something the Red Wings have to be careful with at this point. The team has around $2.8MM in cap space remaining this summer, and though they can move Johan Franzen to long-term injured reserve to get a little more flexibility are likely going to have to trade another contract once Larkin’s deal comes through.

The speedy forward scored 63 points last season and could be demanding quite a substantial raise on his entry-level contract, meaning the Red Wings might need some short-term salary relief to fit everyone in. Next summer a huge amount of money comes off the books due to the expiring contracts of players like Gustav Nyqust, Niklas Kronwall and Jimmy Howard, but there will need to be players signed to replace them as well. Though Detroit had an incredible draft, adding a handful of blue chip prospects to a pool that had been extremely shallow the last few years, you can’t expect all of them to step in next season and make an impact.

A Larkin deal is unavoidable and important, but the Red Wings will have more work to do this summer even after he puts pen to paper. How long that contract extends into his free agent years will have a real impact on how GM Ken Holland and the rest of the Detroit front office navigate the rest of the offseason, and even the early part of the 2018-19 campaign.

Jeff Skinner, Max Pacioretty In Trade Market “Holding Pattern”

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Over the last few months, two names have come up most often when you discuss scoring wingers that could be available for trade. Max Pacioretty and Jeff Skinner are both expected to be dealt by their respective clubs before the season begins, but after initial speculation on where they could end up things have dramatically quieted down. Perhaps that’s because of the existence of both, as teams are trying to make sure they get the best deal of the two options. Elliotte Friedman joined NHL Network today to talk about both players and indicated that some of the suitors for one may be the same as those for the other:

I think there’s another player that we haven’t mentioned yet who is similar to Pacioretty, and I think they’re kind of in the same holding pattern. That player is Jeff Skinner from Carolina. I think teams are kind of sitting there saying ’okay, Montreal’s got this asset they want to deal, Carolina’s got this asset they want to deal’ and I think teams are kind of saying ’okay, which one can we get a better fit.’

I think for example Pittsburgh is a team that has interest in Jeff Skinner, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve checked in hard on him. But I think those two players are kind of similar in a lot of ways and teams are trying to out wait Montreal and Carolina to see if they can get a better deal. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Penguins are taking a long look at Skinner, maybe more than Pacioretty.

Indeed Skinner and Pacioretty have both been excellent offensive producers throughout their careers, and each have just one year remaining on their current contracts. While Pacioretty is three and a half years older than Skinner and is coming off a worse offensive season, he has shown to have a higher playmaking upside with four seasons of 30 or more assists and 60 or more points. Skinner has just one season like that, and it came way back in his rookie season in 2010-11.

Still, both would bring instant offense to almost any team in the league and could fit into most team’s salary structure for the 2018-19 season. Pacioretty comes with just a $4.5MM cap hit on one of the better bargains in the NHL, while Skinner is at just $5.725MM this season. It’s important to note that Skinner also has a no-movement clause, but as we’ve seen many times in the past those can be worked around given enough time and the right situation.

Friedman also notes Chicago as a possible destination for Pacioretty, though in a completely speculative nature given their recent trade of Marian Hossa’s contract. Chicago had been previously rumored to be interested in defenseman Justin Faulk from the Hurricanes, but don’t look to have any imminent trades pending. Skinner or Pacioretty could certainly help the Blackhawks as they try to compete again in 2018-19, but whether they would be interested in a long-term extension for either is unclear.

So we wait for the “holding pattern” to end at some point, and perhaps that will be decided by the deadline that another scoring winger has placed upon his own team. Artemi Panarin told the Columbus Blue Jackets that he wants all business finished by September 13th, the start of training camp, giving the team incentive to move him now if they’ve decided to cash in their asset. Any team acquiring Panarin would want some time to work out an extension, something that would certainly be true of Skinner or Pacioretty as well.

Troy Stecher Signs Two-Year Contract With Vancouver Canucks

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The Vancouver Canucks had two restricted free agents left to sign this summer, Jake Virtanen and Troy Stecher. The latter was eligible to file for player-elected salary arbitration, and had a hearing scheduled for July 29th with an arbitrator in Toronto. That meeting will never happen though, as Stecher has signed a two-year contract with the Canucks that will carry an average annual value of $2.325MM. GM Jim Benning had this to say about his young defenseman:

Troy Stecher is an important part of our team. He’s a talented two-way defenseman who competes every shift. Troy has a willingness to always improve his game and is an example of a young player committed to being a professional.

Coming out of the University of North Dakota in 2016, it didn’t take long for the undrafted defenseman to make a name for himself in Vancouver. As a rookie in 2016-17 he recorded 24 points in 71 games, the best mark of any Vancouver defenseman. He also logged 20 minutes a night that season, and though that dropped slightly in 2017-18 he’s still obviously a big part of the team going forward. With more veteran players like Alexander Edler and Chris Tanev getting closer to unrestricted free agency, Stecher will likely take his place alongside Olli Juolevi, Quinn Hughes and other up-and-coming Vancouver defensemen.

Just 24 years old, Stecher will still be a restricted free agent at the end of this contract and looking for a long-term deal. At that point he will have four years of NHL action under his belt and just one year of RFA status remaining, leaving the Canucks to make a decision on whether he fits into their plans going forward. For now though he should continue to take on more and more responsibility for Vancouver as they transition their young players into more prominent roles. For a team who just a few years ago looked like it was floundering without much of a direction, Vancouver has built up quite the young core to move forward with and Stecher is a big part of that.

Amazingly, Stecher’s $2.325MM cap hit actually makes him the sixth-highest paid defenseman on the Canucks roster, a good value for the production he brings on the ice. Though his point total dropped to just 11 this season after being removed from the powerplay unit, he still posted good possession statistics and proved he could be a fine option on a second or third pairing in the NHL. One could expect that offensive production to rebound somewhat, but for such a relatively inexpensive contract it doesn’t even have to.

Brett Kulak Placed On Waivers

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Friday: Kulak has cleared waivers and will now await his Monday arbitration hearing.

Thursday: The Calgary Flames have placed Brett Kulak on waivers today as they prepare for an arbitration hearing on Monday with the restricted free agent. This type of transaction often occurs before an arbitration date when the team is confident they can get a player through the waiver process without claim, in order to establish his relative value around the league.

Kulak, 24, played 71 games with the Flames last season but averaged fewer than 13 minutes a night while not seeing almost any powerplay or penalty kill time. That limited his offensive contributions to just eight points, and will hurt him in the arbitration negotiations next week. Still, Kulak is coming off a one-year two-way minimum salary contract, something that he clearly deserves a raise on if only a slight one. If Calgary intends on using him again next season on a regular basis, they could ask for the arbitrator to award a two-year deal knowing that the cap hit would be reasonable. That would take Kulak to 26 and still leave him a restricted free agent at the conclusion of the deal.

If the young defenseman was placed on waivers in a few weeks, there may be several interested parties. He’s shown enough to prove that he can be relied on as NHL depth, and there have been flashes up real upside to his game over the last few years. There is a problem for any inquiring team though, and that is the arbitration hearing that is the reason for waivers in the first place. Any claiming team would not be given an extension and would have to present their case on Monday like Calgary is preparing to do. Though certainly possible, teams might not believe they can adequately argue his potential salary with just a weekend to prepare. That, and the still in-flux nature of most NHL rosters has led Calgary to believe that Kulak will pass through unclaimed, something that will be determined tomorrow.

Nick Lappin Re-Signs With New Jersey Devils

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The New Jersey Devils have re-signed Nick Lappin to a one-year two-way contract worth $700K at the NHL level. Lappin was eligible for arbitration this summer but decided not to file prior to the deadline. Instead, he’ll be back on a deal that gives him a nice $250K guarantee and will try to force his way back onto the NHL club.

Lappin, 25, didn’t qualify for Group VI unrestricted free agency this year because he’s only had two seasons under a professional contract. That will change next summer if he doesn’t play in 31 games for the Devils, something that isn’t by any means guaranteed at this point. Suiting up for just six contests in 2017-18 thanks to a deeper and more productive Devils lineup, Lappin instead played nearly the entire year with the Binghamton Devils where he was a dominant offensive performer. Leading the AHL team with 31 goals in 65 games, the former Brown University standout was among the league leaders as well, trailing Valentin Zykov by just two goals for the overall title.

He’ll try to bring that same level of offensive production to Binghamton again this season, and drag the team back to the playoffs for the first time since 2013-14 when they were still the minor league affiliate of the Ottawa Senators. Lappin will also represent solid depth for New Jersey, though he doesn’t quite fit into a bottom-six role making it difficult for him to really carve out a spot with the team.

Minor Transactions: 07/20/18

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Though free agency is basically over for a lot of NHL teams, minor league affiliates are still busy adding players from development camp or overseas. We’ll keep track of all the minor moves of the day right here.

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