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Archives for June 2018

Free Agent Focus: Nashville Predators

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Free agency is now just days from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Here is a breakdown of Nashville’s free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: G Juuse Saros — The goaltender of the future just burned his final year of his entry-level deal and now goes into restricted free agency. Still blocked by Vezina Trophy winner Pekka Rinne, the 23-year-old netminder has transitioned nicely into the team’s backup who can give the 35-year-old Rinne a breather once in a while. In a career-high 26 NHL games last year, Saros put up a 2.45 GAA and more importantly a .925 save percentage.

With Rinne on the last year of his current seven-year, $49MM deal he signed back in 2011, Saros time as the starting goaltender of the future could come soon, who even managed to make four appearances in the team’s abbreviated playoff run. With an AAV of $925K last season, Saros should get a nice bump up in pay next season.

F Ryan Hartman — The gritty forward was picked up at the trade deadline from the Chicago Blackhawks for their playoff run and projects as a solid and versatile bottom-six option for a deep Nashville roster. The 23-year-old posted a 31-point season between the two teams last year, including three goals and six points in 21 games with the Predators, while averaging 13:46 of ATOI. He added another two goals in nine playoff games for Nashville. After a season in which he made just $863K last season, he should get a raise, but with no arbitration rights, probably won’t cost the team too much.

Other RFA’s: F Miikka Salomaki.

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: Alexei Emelin — The team traded for Emelin last offseason as a means to bring in a potential top-four defenseman to fill in for the injured Ryan Ellis for the first half of the season. The 32-year-old posted almost the exact same numbers last year, but once Ellis returned in January, Emelin’s minutes dropped and in the end averaged a career-low in minutes with just 16:53 ATOI. He will take a major paycut after receiving $4.1MM last year in a deal he signed with Montreal back in 2013. However, with seven defensemen with NHL experience already locked up on the Predators roster, it doesn’t look like Emelin will return to Nashville next season.

F Scott Hartnell — While the 36-year-old had respectable numbers in his return to Nashville, the 17-year veteran is not expected to return to Nashville with the amount of young talent that is trying to break into the Predators lineup. Regardless, the veteran has already stated that he intends to play for another season, but almost assuredly will be looking for a new home.

Other UFA’s: F Cody Bass, F Brandon Bollig, G Anders Lindback, F Mark McNeill, G Matt O’Connor, D John Ramage, F Trevor Smith, F Harry Zolnierczyk.

Projected Cap Space: The Predators are projected to have $12MM in available cap space going into free agency and while the team does have to lock up a couple restricted free agents like Saros and Hartman, the team has money to play with. Regardless, the Predators haven’t been in on many free agent rumors so far suggesting the team might hold back and add specialty players to team that intends to challenge for a Stanley Cup this year. The team also must be ready to have the eventual cap space to lock up Ellis, who will be a free agent in the 2019-20 season.

 

Devils Re-Sign Eddie Lack

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New Jersey is keeping their goaltending depth intact heading into next season, announcing that they have re-signed Eddie Lack to a one-year, one-way contract worth $650K.

The 30-year-old started last season with Calgary after they acquired him from Carolina but he did not fare well.  In four appearances with the Flames, he posted a 5.29 GAA with a .813 SV% that resulted in him being waived and clearing.  In late December, he was dealt to the Devils in exchange for blueliner Dalton Prout, another veteran who had cleared waivers and was toiling in the minors.

Lack spent most of his time following the deal at the minor league level where he suited up in 16 games with their AHL affiliate in Binghamton.  He did, however, get into four games with New Jersey where his numbers were much better than his stint with Calgary (3.19 GAA, .903 SV%).  In his career, Lack has played in 143 NHL games between the Canucks, Hurricanes, Flames, and Devils, with a 2.62 GAA and a .909 SV%.

With Cory Schneider and Keith Kinkaid both already under contract for next season, it appears that the Devils envision Lack once again being their third-string netminder where he can continue to help mentor prospect Mackenzie Blackwood at the minor league level.  However, with Schneider’s availability for the start of 2018-19 in question following hip surgery, Lack will also provide them with some insurance if he’s not ready to play right away.

Free Agent Focus: Boston Bruins

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Free agency is now just days from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Here is a breakdown of Boston’s free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agent: F Sean Kuraly – This was Kuraly’s first season as a regular and he acquitted himself relatively well on the fourth line as he provided the Bruins with a physical presence and the odd timely goal.  Given his limited track record though, he won’t have much leverage when it comes to contract negotiations even though he is eligible for salary arbitration.  His qualifying offer came in just shy of $875K and his next deal should be close to that amount.

Other RFAs: W Anton Blidh, D Colby Cave

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F Rick Nash – While his production has tapered off in recent years, that didn’t stop several teams from pursuing Nash at the trade deadline.  His days as a top-line scorer are finished but he can still slot in nicely as a second liner, something that the Bruins were hoping for when they acquired him.  Unfortunately for them, he suffered a concussion shortly after joining the team and while he was back for the playoffs, he didn’t make much of an impact.

Nash was projecting to be one of the top free agents available this summer – he’s ranked sixth in our Top 50 UFA Rankings – but he has taken himself off the market for the time being as he has told teams that he is unsure if he intends to play in 2018-19.  Boston was among the teams that had expressed interest in signing him during the interview period so it will be interesting to see if they leave enough cap space freed up this summer to circle back to Nash if he decides later on that he’s going to play next season.

F Riley Nash – The other Nash had quite the season.  After being expected to be primarily a depth player, he worked his way into a regular spot on the third line and never looked back, posting career highs in goals (15), assists (26), and points (41) while winning a respectable 48.4% of his faceoffs.  With it being a pretty weak market for centers in free agency, the 29-year-old is poised to land a considerable pay raise and some long-term contract security on the open market.

Other UFAs: F Kenny Agostino, D Christopher Breen, D Tommy Cross, F Austin Czarnik, D Nick Holden, G Anton Khudobin, D Paul Postma, F Tim Schaller, F Tommy Wingels

Projected Cap Space: The Bruins currently have just shy of $12MM in cap room this offseason, per CapFriendly.  Even after re-signing Kuraly and finding a replacement for Khudobin with his return appearing to be unlikely, they should have enough room to add a notable player either through trade or free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arizona Coyotes, Niklas Hjalmarsson Agree To Extension

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June 30: Hjalmarsson will ink a two-year deal worth a total of $10MM, reports Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman (Twitter link).

June 23: The Arizona Coyotes have reportedly reached an extension agreement with veteran defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson, which can’t be signed until July 1, according to AZ Sports Craig Morgan. No terms have been announced yet.

The 31-year-old blueliner was brought in last season to provide a veteran presence to Arizona’s defensive core, but most especially to guide countrymate Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who at the time was considered a question as to whether he wanted to stay in Arizona. However, now that Ekman-Larsson has verbally agreed to an extension, the team didn’t take long to lock up Hjalmarsson.

The team displayed interest back in March to bring back Hjalmarsson, who is in the final year of a five-year, $20.5MM deal he signed with the Chicago Blackhawks in 2013 at $4.1MM per year. After being traded last offseason to Arizona for Connor Murphy and prospect Laurent Dauphin, the stay-at-home defenseman struggled with injuries and played in just 48 games, putting up nine points. However, that was evidently enough for the team to extend him for more years beyond next season.

Wild To Buy Out Tyler Ennis

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The final day of the first buyout window has claimed a second casualty as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports (Twitter link) that the Wild have placed forward Tyler Ennis on unconditional waivers to buy out the final year of his contract.  He had one year remaining on his deal with a $4.6MM cap hit.  That means Minnesota will instead carry a cap hit of $2.167MM in 2018-19 and $1.217MM in 2019-20.

The Wild acquired the 28-year-old last offseason from the Sabres as part of the trade that saw defenseman Marco Scandella and winger Jason Pominville head to Buffalo with winger Marcus Foligno also heading to Minnesota.

While they were certainly hoping that a change of scenery would get him going, that didn’t wind up happening.  While he did improve on his numbers with Buffalo, Ennis still posted just 22 points (8-14-22) in 73 games, hardly the type of production that justifies the type of contract he had.

New GM Paul Fenton had made it clear that they were looking to get out of the final year of his contract as he had been trying to attach Ennis in trade talks regarding wingers Charlie Coyle, Jason Zucker, and Nino Niederreiter.  However, since they weren’t able to find a taker, they’ll now go down this path and free up nearly $2.2MM in additional cap space to work with this offseason.

Canadiens To Buy Out Steve Mason

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Steve Mason’s time with the Canadiens lasted all of a few hours.  TVA Sports’ Renaud Lavoie reports (Twitter link) that the team will place the goaltender on unconditional waivers for the purposes of buying out his contract.  He had one year and $4.1MM remaining on his contract.  That means that Montreal will carry a cap hit of $1.367MM in each of the next two seasons.

The 30-year-old had been acquired earlier in the day as part of a salary cap dump from Winnipeg that also saw the Canadiens acquire winger Joel Armia.  This isn’t a surprising outcome as Montreal already has veteran Antti Niemi under contract to be their second-string netminder while youngster Charlie Lindgren is also on a one-way deal but will likely start in the minors once again.

Mason spent 2017-18 with Winnipeg after signing a two-year, $8.2MM contract last summer.  He struggled to stay healthy as he dealt with multiple concussions and he didn’t fare particularly well when he was in the lineup, posting a below average 3.24 GAA and a .906 SV% in 13 games (12 starts).  Assuming he clears waivers as expected on Sunday, he will hit the open market for the second straight summer in search of a new team.

Hurricanes Sign Andrei Svechnikov

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The Hurricanes have wasted little time getting their top pick from last week’s NHL Entry Draft signed as the team announced that they have inked winger Andrei Svechnikov to a three-year, entry-level contract.  The deal is worth the maximum base salary of $925K per year at the NHL level which includes the maximum 10% signing bonus.  However, the team did not provide details of any potential performance bonuses.

GM Don Waddell had the following to say about the signing:

“This an exciting moment for our organization. Andrei is the type of elite talent that you can build a team around. He has a bright future in a Carolina Hurricanes uniform.”

Svechnikov was the second-overall pick in the draft following a dominating first junior season with Barrie of the OHL.  He played in 44 games with the Colts, scoring 40 goals while adding 32 assists and finished up the regular season on a 23-game point streak.  He followed that up with 11 points (5-6-11) in eight postseason contests but missed four games in the playoffs due to a suspension.  All in all, his performance earned him OHL Rookie of the Year as well as being named the CHL Prospect of the Year.

It’s widely expected that Svechnikov will start next season with the Hurricanes instead of being sent back to Barrie; he is unable to play in the AHL.  He will add to what is quickly becoming an intriguing base of young talent up front including Sebastian Aho (20) and Martin Necas (19).

PHR Mailbag: Tavares, Blackhawks, Johnson, Blues Goaltending, Islanders

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This edition of the PHR Mailbag features a look at the Blackhawks, Blues, and Islanders plus discussions on a new Pittsburgh defenseman and a certain free agent center that is holding up the market.

Zack35: What do you think the percentages are on Tavares sweepstakes? Does NYI 40%, SJ 40%, everyone else 20% sound about right?

acarneglia: Which John Tavares suitor is the best fit for him of Boston, Tampa, Dallas, Toronto and San Jose?

Not surprisingly, Tavares was a popular topic in the questions so I’ll tackle this from a couple of different angles.

In terms of the percentages, I’d give the Islanders (40%) a slight edge over San Jose (35%) simply because of the eighth year option and the fact that Tavares has said in the past he genuinely would like to stay (and I believe him).  In terms of the third best odds, I’d put Toronto (10%) ahead of the others simply because of the hometown factor and the potential for a one-year max deal that would allow him to really cash in now and then still land a huge contract next summer.  I’d have Dallas (7.5%) next since both Tyler Seguin and Jason Spezza are UFAs at the end of the year; there is a long-term spot for him that wouldn’t require a whole lot of roster movement to fit him in.  That’s not the case for Boston (3.75%) who already has a couple of pricey centers locked up (plus David Backes) and Tampa Bay (3.75%) who simply don’t have the cap room and would have to make a few moves to fit him in now and then a few more next summer.

As for where he fits in the best aside from New York, I’ll once again lead with San Jose.  Their center position could really change in the next little while and I think he would complement their offense well.  After that, I’d go with Dallas given the potential UFA situation a year from now.  The Leafs would love to have him and Auston Matthews as a one-two punch but with Matthews and Mitch Marner up a year from now, they’d have a hard time keeping all three around long-term.  Is it ideal to lock up Tavares to a max-term deal knowing they’ll probably have to deal one of the other two away a year from now?  After that, I’d put Boston ahead of Tampa Bay but I don’t like the fit that much for either team.

shelteredsoxfan: What sort of moves do you see the Blackhawks making this offseason?

They need a better backup goalie and while I’m not convinced he’s the best option out there, it certainly sounds like Cam Ward will be the choice there.  I doubt that Anton Forsberg will draw much trade interest so Ward’s addition shouldn’t result in a follow-up move.

Defensively, I have a hard time thinking they’re going to bring back the same unit that struggled in 2017-18.  Considering what they have coming up in the pipeline though, I think they’d prefer to go the trade route and get someone with a year or two left on their contract that can play on the second pairing over giving a long-term deal to someone like Calvin de Haan.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see them look to move Connor Murphy who has four years left on his deal in that type of trade.

Up front is where it’s interesting.  I think they’d like to make a splash and go after someone like James van Riemsdyk and really give themselves another scoring threat.  However, the cap room is going to be iffy, even with Marian Hossa going back on LTIR.  (Speaking of Hossa, I think GM Stan Bowman will be calling his counterpart in Ottawa about trying to offload that contract at some point.)  I also wouldn’t be surprised if this is the summer that Artem Anisimov gets moved.  Nick Schmaltz may be ready to take on a full-time second line role and enough teams will miss out on the few centers that are out there that they’ll view Anisimov as a fallback option.  A youngster-based return would free up enough space to take a run at one of those top wingers on the open market as well.  The pieces are there if Chicago wants to shake things up this summer.

@swabbb1: Hey #PHRMailbag, is Jack Johnson worth the money and 5-year deal reports out of Pittsburgh say the Pens will give him as early as Sunday? Thanks.

I know the numbers aren’t pretty but I think Johnson in a new environment will rebound somewhat.  He has needed a change of scenery for a while and I think that will rejuvenate him.  With that in mind, I don’t hate the AAV for this deal.  If he can be a decent fourth or fifth defender, that’s about the going rate in free agency.  It’s not a bargain but I don’t think it will be a massive overpay, at least at the start.

But five years?  I’m having a hard time spinning that into a positive.  It’s not like he’s 27 or 28 and can realistically be expected to still be a good contributor five years from now.  He’s 31 and is going to be showing signs of slowing down over the next couple of years, especially with all of the hard minutes he has played in the past.  I’d have thought three years at that AAV would have been reasonable.

There is some reward potential with this contract.  If getting to a new team (and one that has had success getting blueliners back on track) gets Johnson going, this could turn into a good deal.  But there is a lot of risk involved here as well, especially in those last couple of years.

Anakin Skywalker: With the chance Carter Hutton doesn’t re-sign with the Blues, should they target Lehner, Mrazek, or call up Husso?

When it comes to young goalies, unless they’re pushing to be the starter, I’m a believer in letting them exhaust their waiver exemption before bringing them up to sit on the bench for 60 games a year.  Minutes matter and Ville Husso is going to get a lot more of them in the minors than he will with the Blues so I’m all for St. Louis signing another goalie in free agency.

I prefer Robin Lehner of the two options you’ve provided.  Yes, he had a rough year in Buffalo but he had minimal defense in front of him.  He’s going to be motivated and with the Blues, he’d have a much better back end helping him out.  I think they’d like to add someone that can push Jake Allen and of the goalies that are available on the open market, Lehner’s the likeliest to do so out of any of them which would make him my primary target.

nk: Although I believe the Isles will sign JT, there are other needs especially in goal and on D. Who do you think the Isles will go after (either in trade market or UFA) for a goaltender and with a poor D and the reality that both Hickey and de Haan are probably gone, who steps up, in or is acquired to bolster that position?

In terms of goaltending, they’ve been linked to Ottawa’s Craig Anderson which is a reasonable fit.  I can’t see the asking price being particularly high and if recent history repeats itself, he’s in line for a good year in 2018-19.  They can have their choice of stopgap goalies in free agency (Carter Hutton would have been my pick but he seems to be Buffalo-bound).  After that, I like Petr Mrazek as an option for them as he has shown in the past he can be capable of getting on a hot streak.  He’d be a platoon player with Thomas Greiss and while that’s not the best tandem on paper, both netminders have had solid stretches in the past.  I wouldn’t be shocked if they kick the tires on some younger options as well such as Pittsburgh’s Tristan Jarry, Montreal’s Charlie Lindgren, or even Toronto’s Garret Sparks if GM Lou Lamoriello liked what he saw from him in his days with the Maple Leafs.

The options aren’t as plentiful on defense.  If de Haan leaves, I could see them turning to Ian Cole as a potential replacement.  He probably can’t log the 20 or so minutes per game that de Haan can but he should at least be able to cover 17 or 18 minutes a night and give them another physical player on their back end.  They’ll expect Ryan Pulock to take a big jump forward and I suspect they’ll be comfortable using Sebastian Aho more as well.  Is that really enough?  Probably not.  I could see the Islanders looking to take on a salary cap dump from another team to try to upgrade their depth – Tampa Bay’s Braydon Coburn and St. Louis’ Carl Gunnarsson (if they plan to be active in free agency) come to mind as candidates.  It’s patchwork but this isn’t a good summer to try to really rebuild a defense corps so unless they want to part with a top pick or prospect, that’s about all they’ll be able to do.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Canadiens Acquire Steve Mason, Joel Armia From Winnipeg

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The Jets needed to clear out some cap room if they wanted to re-sign Paul Stastny and they have taken a step towards doing so, dealing goalie Steve Mason, winger Joel Armia, a 2019 seventh-round pick, and a 2020 fourth-round pick to Montreal for prospect defenseman Simon Bourque.  Both teams have announced the deal.

Mason struggled considerably in his first and only season in Winnipeg, suffering multiple concussions that saw him limited to just 13 games, where he posted a below average 3.24 GAA and a .906 SV%.  He has one year remaining on his contract with a $4.1MM salary cap hit; Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports (Twitter link) that there is no salary retention in the swap.  Assuming Mason remains with the Canadiens, he will battle veteran Antti Niemi and prospect Charlie Lindgren for the backup role behind Carey Price.  However, Johnston adds in a follow-up tweet that Montreal is already shopping Mason and could retain some money to facilitate a deal.

Armia is the key to the deal from Montreal’s side.  The 25-year-old is coming off of his best season in the NHL where he posted 12 goals and 17 assists in 79 games despite averaging just 12:36 of playing time.  The pending RFA received a $1MM qualifying offer earlier this week and is eligible for salary arbitration.  He will likely slot into Montreal’s bottom six group of forwards.

For the Jets, freeing up more than $4MM in cap room will be crucial in their pursuit to re-sign Stastny.  It has been suggested over the last few days that the 32-year-old wanted to remain in Winnipeg but the Jets, who still have goalie Connor Hellebuyck, defenseman Jacob Trouba, and several others to re-sign so more short-term flexibility was certainly needed.  They have just over $28MM to work with, per CapFriendly, but have as many as nine roster spots to fill.

As for Bourque, he struggled considerably in his first year at the professional level.  He was a frequent healthy scratch with AHL Laval this past season and tallied just three assists in 46 games.  However, he posted nearly a point per game in his final junior campaign so there is still some potential for him to take some steps forward.

Free Agent Rumor Round-Up: Roussel, Calvert, Hickey, Rieder, Perron, And More

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The Vancouver Canucks are closing in on an agreement with one of their top free agent targets. After Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman revealed that the Canucks were talking to two-way winger Antoine Roussel, colleague Rick Dhaliwal did some digging and discovered that the two sides were close on a long-term deal. Dhaliwal expects Roussel to sign a four-year deal worth more than $3MM per year with Vancouver. The former Dallas Stars brings grit and energy to the Canucks and has previously teased 30+ point potential. If the 28-year-old Frenchman can reach those levels of production while maintaining his notorious physical game, this could be a great signing by GM Jim Benning. However, it is well above what many would have expected Roussel to sign in both term and salary and could just as well be a disaster for Vancouver. Roussel is ranked 38th on PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents list with an estimated contract of two years and just over $2MM AAV.

[RELATED: PHR’s 2018 Top 50 NHL Unrestricted Free Agents]

  • Friedman has also linked the Colorado Avalanche and forward Matt Calvert. TSN’s Darren Dreger is among a few sources who have also heard about that pairing. Calvert, 28, has played his entire career for the Columbus Blue Jackets, but Dreger seems convinced that he is definitely on the move. The versatile, two-way winger would be a nice fit as a bottom-six regular who can fill gaps in the top-six, much like the role that Blake Comeau played for the team.
  • Dreger also reports that interest is high in defenseman Thomas Hickey. A shallow defense market is likely boosting the value of the serviceable defenseman, who is a tough defensive match-up and a dangerous off-the-puck play-maker, but prone to mistake when moving play. Many speculated that the Islanders would turn their attention to re-signing Hickey once the John Tavares situation had sorted itself out, but with Tavares dragging his feet and Hickey in talks with numerous teams, New York may not get that chance. We predicted that Hickey would land with the Montreal Canadiens on a multi-year deal in PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents list.
  • Another player getting a lot of attention is winger Tobias Rieder and the status of his suitors is changing quickly as the price rises. Just earlier today, the Vancouver Canucks were the first team confirmed to be in on Rieder and by now that list has increased dramatically. TSN’s Ryan Rishaug reports that the Calgary Flames, Montreal Canadiens, and Ottawa Senators are also in the running and that the price has gotten so high as to drive the Edmonton Oilers out of the bidding. The Athletic’s Craig Custance confirms the interest from the Canucks, Flames, and Habs and adds the New York Rangers and Florida Panthers to the list of interested parties. All this for a player that the Los Angeles Kings deemed unworthy of a qualifying offer.
  • As expected, David Perron is also one of the hottest names on the free agent market and his former team, the Vegas Golden Knights, are seemingly out of the running. Friedman calls it “very unlikely” that Perron returns to Las Vegas, where he set a career high with 66 points this season. For an idea on the price for Perron, he landed at #5 on the PHR Top 50 Free Agents list with a projected six-year, $32MM contract, which could be a conservative guess.
  • One team that is somewhat surprisingly in talks with Perron is Arizona. Craig Morgan of Arizona Sports details the off-season so far from the Coyotes and lists Perron, James van Riemsdyk, and Michael Grabner as Arizona’s top targets. Morgan also says that the team has not ruled out bringing back veteran forward Brad Richardson as well.
  • The Boston Bruins are moving on from Anton Khudobin and reportedly working fast to find his replacement. Beat writer Matt Kalman and The Boston Globe’s Kevin-Paul Dupont both hear that the team is very interested in Kari Lehtonen as the new backup to Tuukka Rask. With many talented goalies on the market, Lehtonen has flown under the radar somewhat despite incredibly comparable numbers to Khudobin in more starts and superior numbers to the likes of Jonathan Bernier, Cam Ward, Robin Lehner and others. Lehtonen also had the highest Quality Start rate of any of that group in 2017-18. Even here at PHR we may have underestimated Lehtonen, making him our sixth-best goalie among the Top 50 free agents.
  • Unsurprisingly, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun notes that the Washington Capitals have checked in with defenseman Brooks Orpik. A veteran leader and key contributor to their Stanley Cup run, the Capitals faced little choice but to trade Orpik away earlier this off-season in order to clear cap space to maintain their championship roster. Now that he has subsequently been bought out by the Colorado Avalanche, Orpik is fair game and could return to D.C. at a much more affordable rate. However, LeBrun warns that other teams are also in the running and Orpik may not take a discount rate in Washington over more legitimate offers.

 

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