The Montreal Canadiens head into this offseason with some clear holes on their roster. The most glaring of those needs is down the middle, where the team has lacked any sort of depth at center for many years. The team has tried Jonathan Drouin and Alex Galchenyuk in the role, but neither seem perfectly suited to handle big minutes at the position. Drouin will likely be tested there again, but many have suggested that the Canadiens go out and use their ample cap space to go free agent hunting. John Tavares is the obvious first choice if he reaches July 1st without a contract from the New York Islanders, but others like Paul Stastny, Joe Thornton, Tyler Bozak or even Derek Ryan could all bring some level of improvement to the team.
There is also the trade market, where names like Ryan O’Reilly, Sam Bennett, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and others are still floating around. The Canadiens will obviously look to upgrade, but they also have to be extremely careful in who they acquire, and how much—or perhaps more importantly how long—they pay them.
Even if they do nothing, Montreal will likely be a better team in 2018-19. Shea Weber and Carey Price should return with some modicum of health, while Drouin will have a full year of experience under the spotlight. Victor Mete, Noah Juulsen, Nikita Scherbak and Artturi Lekhonen could all take steps forward to become impact players, and the team owns the third-overall pick in this year’s draft. There’s no guarantee that a player like Filip Zadina would be able to step right into the NHL and contribute, but the Canadiens will obviously be able to add an elite prospect to the mix. The temptation of supplementing these players with some free agent help will be there, but it could just as easily backfire for the team.
Last summer the Canadiens handed out a five-year deal to Karl Alzner who, while not a disaster on the ice, failed to live up to some lofty expectations. While logging more than 20 minutes a night, Alzner wasn’t a shutdown defensive presence like many had hoped and now looks slightly overpaid at $4.6MM. Drouin didn’t quite live up to expectations either, though there is no reason to doubt that he has another gear ready for next season.
If anything can be learned from the Alzner contract, it’s that the Canadiens have to be careful not to fall into the trap of paying the best player available like he’s the best player at the position. Last year’s free agent market was remarkably thin, and while this season looks to have a better group, any of the names mentioned above are far from sure things. Even Thornton, who will go down as one of the league’s all-time great setup men, isn’t the same first-line center he once was.
Montreal heads into next season with plenty of cap room, but with Price’s eight-year $84MM extension just kicking off they must be extremely careful with their finances. With Weber’s long-term deal still on the books and eventual extensions due to a handful of young players, there is a clear danger of putting the team in a cap squeeze by handing out multiple big-money contracts. Even Tavares, who will likely command something between $10-12MM per season, could potentially put the Canadiens in a tough spot despite his obvious skills. Every team that has two highly paid superstars ends up shedding young talent to keep the salary structure balanced, and if Tavares and Price aren’t enough to lead the team to victory they could be in trouble.
Next season’s salary cap is expected to be somewhere between $78-82MM, giving the Canadiens somewhere around $17MM in cap space to spend this summer. That’s enough to be players in the market, but they shouldn’t be going all-in without some careful consideration. Otherwise they could find themselves in an even worse situation at this time next year, even if the results on the ice improve in the short-term.
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