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The Case For Points Percentage

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It’s not often in sports that there is a need for something as trivial as a change in how standings are listed. Yet, that is the exact situation that the NHL faces. Ever since the league changed its schedule format a few years back so that every team played in every building every year, scheduling has become increasingly difficult and teams play out their seasons far differently from one another. The result, at any given point in the season, is a wide gap in games played between teams across the league – one that has stretched as high as 8 games between the teams with the most and fewest games played.

With a points-based standings system, a games played gap greatly misrepresents the success of teams relative to one another. While anyone can look and see that a 25-5-5 team is superior to a 22-10-11, the problem is that the standings say otherwise – both teams have 55 points – and the average layperson isn’t going to calculate a metric to differentiate the two when just casually looking at the standings. In the end, all teams play 82 games, but for the ease of fans and even some media members to better analyze how teams are performing in-season, and additional metric is needed.

That metric is points percentage, which of course is the amount of points a team has accrued (two-point wins and one-point OT/shoot-out losses) out of how many possible points they could have earned with a win in each game. Similar to winning percentage, the main standings metric for the MLB and traditionally listed on NFL and NBA standings as well, points percentage is an easy way to show how teams are doing relative to a .500 mark and, more importantly, relative to each other. The only problem is that, while very easy to calculate and very useful, no one in hockey is yet using this stat in their standard standings. NHL.com should, above everyone else, at least use points percentage in their standings, especially since it is a metric they have on hand, but they don’t. Instead, users can go to team stats, where it is a searchable statistic, and refine their search by conference and division to see relevant standings. Helpful, right? ESPN, TSN, Fox Sports, and CBS Sports are among the other major sports information outlets who have yet to adopt points percentage for their NHL standings, continuing to leave fans without complete information.

The one site hockey fans should use: the old stand-by Hockey Reference. The reliable stats site lists points percentage right alongside points in its 2017-18 standings, allowing for an easy look at the true performances of teams so far this season. Do yourself a favor, and take a quick look. Points percentage is topical right now, as a perfect case study is playing out in the Atlantic Division. Yes, the season is only a quarter of the way in, but the margin in games played is already skewing the view of the league’s weakest division:

Fans of the struggling Montreal Canadiens are ecstatic to be back in a playoff spot with 27 points in 27 games and fans of the Detroit Red Wings are proud of their club for sticking around with 25 points in 26 games, good enough for fifth place in the division. What about the fourth-place Boston Bruins? Well, the Bruins have 26 points… but in 23 games. Due to the gap in games played between the B’s and the Habs and Wings, it looks like Boston is just another team in the mix. Yet, in terms of points percentage they are a ways ahead. The Bruins are currently at .565, right up there with the New York Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Washington Capitals within the Eastern Conference. The Canadiens are at .500, no better than the Atlantic’s sixth-place squad, the Ottawa Senators, and well outside playoff contention at this point. The Red Wings are at just .481, a success rate much closer to the Florida Panthers than the Bruins.

The whole outlook of the Atlantic is skewed due to the games played gap and points percentage is a clear way to show accurate standings. It is also a straightforward metric to calculate and display. So why haven’t more platforms adopted it? It’s time for the NHL and other sports media outlets to help out hockey’s spectators and format their standings to actually show how the season is going.

Opinions Differ On Injury Disclosures

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Dallas Stars head coach Ken Hitchcock turned some heads last week when he made comments against the NHL’s injury reporting policies. Hitchcock’s comments were not controversial, however they were the first that anyone within the league had publicly taken a stance against a rather secretive way of doing business. The NHL does not require its teams to submit detailed injury reports like the National Football League does, for example. Instead, fans and opponents are left with the infamous “lower body” and “upper body” injuries which could be anything from a broken toe to a concussion and infinite other ailments in between. Yet, last week Hitchcock’s Stars came out and announced specific injuries: knee surgery for Marc Methot and a hand injury for Martin Hanzal. In addressing the media on his deviation from the norm, Hitchcock was blunt:

“I think we collectively hate playing the game. What I mean by that is we say upper body, then you go on the phone, and then you look up things or you go to the doctors, find out what part of the upper body… We try to make your work easier, quite frankly… Nobody thinks like that. Our feeling is just ’tell them what the injury is and move it forward, and let’s stop the dance.'”

What Hitchcock alludes to is that secrecy surrounding injuries in the NHL is nothing more than a “game” at this point. The media and thus fans and opponents eventually find out the pertinent information and hiding behind vague “upper-body” and “lower-body” injuries is merely a hindrance on the flow of information.

So what do other coaches think? Since Hitchcock’s remarks, this has been a hot button topic for the league’s other bench bosses. Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock was asked on Saturday what his opinion was on the subject and agreed with Hitchcock on all but one specific injury: concussions. “I don’t like talking about head injuries,” Babcock qualified, “Then there are all these things about concussions and half the time it’s neck or something… I want the player and the right people to work that out.” Despite otherwise agreeing with Hitchcock, Babcock did add that the Leafs plan to stick with “upper-body” and “lower-body”, though he respects the right of all coaches to disclose injuries as they like.

Winnipeg Jets coach Paul Maurice was less cordial about Hitchcock’s comments when he addressed them this morning, completely disagreeing:

“You’re not allowed to tell anybody what a doctor knows. They’ve got laws. People can get sued for letting that kind of information (out). I don’t really have the right to come out and tell you how a guy is feeling…I would think on average (that) somewhere between nine and 11 players, about half your hockey team, every single night, has something that they’re dealing with. Bone bruises, I had a guy playing with cracked ribs. I don’t want anybody to know that.”

Maurice seems to take the stance that not only is revealing a specific injury a violation of a player’s  privacy, but it also can be detrimental to the team. The one point on which Maurice agreed with Hitchcock over Babcock was concussions, as Maurice feels that there is a “responsibility to show our league is handling them in a certain way.”

For media and fans, the clear choice is with Hitchcock, as complete information is always a benefit to the spectators. So long as coaches support vague injury reports though, it seems unlikely that the league will implement any blanked changes to injury disclosures.

Vegas Golden Knights Expected To Recall Stefan Matteau

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The Vegas Golden Knights have been on fire for most of the season, and currently sit in first place in the Pacific Division. The expansion franchise has turned a rag-tag group of players from the fringes of NHL rosters into a cohesive unit, even in the face of staggering injuries. Though Luca Sbisa was at practice wearing a no-contract jersey, and Marc-Andre Fleury skated before teammates according to David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review Journal, David Perron and William Carrier were nowhere to be seen on the ice at T-Mobile Arena. That leaves them with just 11 healthy forwards at practice, and in need of some help up front.

Enter Stefan Matteau, who according to NHL.com contributor Anthony Marcotte will be recalled by the Golden Knights for the first time this season. The son of former NHLer Stephane Matteau, Stefan was selected 29th-overall by the New Jersey Devils in 2012, and eventually dealt to Montreal for Devante Smith-Pelly. He wasn’t qualified this summer by the Canadiens, and eventually signed a one-year contract with Vegas. Projected as a powerful winger with speed and physicality, it was hoped that Matteau would eventually develop more of an offensive game to be able to stick in the NHL. That hasn’t happened yet, as he has just six points in 56 career NHL contests and hasn’t been a big scoring threat even at the minor league level.

Still, Vegas has built their season on players that were underestimated so far in their careers and will try to catch more lightning in a bottle with Matteau. The 6’2″ 220-lbs forward could bring an added level of physicality and energy to their bottom six, and perhaps show that he’s ready for an increased role. Power forwards often find their footing later in their careers, and at 23 years old Matteau can’t quite be labelled a bust just yet. Even if his offensive game never develops, perhaps he can provide different value to the Golden Knights.

Snapshots: Campbell, Wideman, McDavid

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The Los Angeles Kings acquired Torrey Mitchell earlier tonight in a trade with the Montreal Canadiens, but it’s not the only move they’ve made recently. Late last night the team signed goaltender Jack Campbell to a two-year, $1.35MM extension. The deal is two-way for 2018-19, but becomes a one-way contract in 2019-20.

Campbell has rediscovered his game after leaving the Dallas Stars organization, who originally selected him 11th-overall in 2010. He ran with the starting job for the Ontario Reign of the AHL last season, posting a .914 save percentage and has improved on that early in this season. The 25-year old was once considered one of the top goaltending prospects in the league and will continue to try and fight his way towards the NHL. Though Jonathan Quick is signed long-term, the Kings will have an opening to back him up after Darcy Kuemper’s deal expires this summer.

  • Dennis Wideman has returned to hockey, this time as an assistant coach of the OHL’s Kitchener Rangers. The Rangers, who are one of the most impressive teams in the league this season, are currently coached by former NHL defenseman (and Wideman teammate) Jay McKee. Wideman, a Kitchener native, was unable to secure a contract this summer after the Calgary Flames decided not to re-sign him. In 815 career NHL games, he had 387 points.
  • Connor McDavid has been playing through a serious illness according to Darren Dreger of TSN, who reports that the Edmonton Oilers captain has lost between five and ten pounds recently. Amazingly, McDavid has nine points in his last five games, the best stretch of the season so far for the reigning Hart Trophy winner. McDavid and the Oilers remain near the very bottom of the NHL standings, with just 18 points through 22 games.

Trade Rumors: Coyotes, Canadiens, Jets, Islanders

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In all likelihood, the recent three-way trade that sent Matt Duchene to the Ottawa Senators and Kyle Turris to the Nashville Predators will be the biggest deal made this season. Yet, that hasn’t stopped the whispers of an bustling trade market, especially this early in the season. At the quarter pole of the 2017-18 campaign, it’s been an unpredictable season, prompting an unexpectedly active market. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch has had his ear to the ground and has plenty of input on who the buyers and sellers are right now:

  • To no one’s surprise, Garrioch states that the floundering Arizona Coyotes are “willing to talk about pretty much every player on their roster”. That of course doesn’t include Calder-hopeful Clayton Keller or many of their other 21-and-under starters, but the rest of the roster may as well be up for grabs. The big off-season acquisitions of Derek Stepan, Antti Raanta, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Jason Demers have done nothing to change this team’s ability to win hockey games. At some point, GM John Chayka is going to go from “up-and-coming” to “up-and-went” and that pressure could force him to make some major moves as he rethinks his rebuild. While impending UFA’s like Raanta, Brad Richardson, and Luke Schenn would be the easiest pieces to move, the stakes are high for a Coyotes team whose core has done next to nothing for years and key pieces like Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Max Domi, Anthony Duclair, and Tobias Rieder could soon be on their way out.
  • Perhaps the only team more disappointing than Arizona in 2017-18 is the farthest team from them across North America: the Montreal Canadiens. Under new head coach Claude Julien, the Habs have fallen apart. However, the newly-signed coach isn’t going anywhere, putting GM Marc Bergevin, who Garrioch calls ” the NHL’s most active GM”, on the hot seat. Bergevin may be willing to make a big move to save his job, and of course the first name that comes to mind is young forward Alex Galchenyuk, who has predictably struggled under the defense-first Julien. Galchenyuk seems lost in Montreal, without an identifiable position, role, or spot in the lineup, and could use a change of scenery. However, he is not wholly to blame for the Canadiens’ struggles. Tomas Plekanec has long been on the block and if the team truly commits to a rebuild, big names like Max Pacioretty, Shea Weber, and (if anyone is willing to take on his monstrous new contract) even Carey Price could soon join the list.
  • Garrioch mentions both the Winnipeg Jets and New York Islanders as possible sellers, but given the surprising success of both clubs thus far, neither is likely rushing to trade pieces away unless they can make their teams better this season. Impending Jets UFA’s Shawn Matthias and Matt Hendricks may draw interest, but if Winnipeg is in playoff position come deadline time, they would want veteran depth for themselves. It seems more likely that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff could use his overflow of young forwards like Marko Dano, Joel Armia, Andrew Copp, Adam Lowry, or Brandon Tanev as trade bait to bring in another top-six forward for a team that doesn’t shoot the puck nearly enough. As for the Islanders, Garrioch singles out first-time UFA Calvin de Haan as the player to watch. Yet, de Haan is one of, if not the best shot-blocker in the NHL, can play major minutes, and is reliable in both ends. If the Isles can resign him, wouldn’t they? Obviously, John Tavares is the main focus and the team thinks highly of younger options like Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock, but the loss of a player like de Haan, especially with Travis Hamonic now in Calgary, could cripple a playoff-bound Islanders squad. Odds are de Haan sticks around, at least as long as New York remains playoff-bound.
  • So who’s looking? Garrioch mentions the Florida Panthers, Calgary Flames, Columbus Blue Jackets, and the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins as suitors for forward help, with the Dallas Stars potentially looking to make another big blue line trade to turn their season around. With that many buyers and several disappointed sellers, the trade NHL trade market may not wait until 2018 to heat up.

Snapshots: OHL, Sedlak, Gudbranson, Gaborik

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The Ontario Hockey League has always been one of the premiere talent factories for the NHL, churning out elite prospects every season. Like every year, the talented folks over at OHL Prospects have put together a consensus ranking of the 2018 draft eligible players, with contributions from various scouting gurus like Mike Morreale (NHL.com), Scott Wheeler (The Athletic) and Dan Stewart (Future Considerations).

In this ranking of OHL prospects—like any other you’ll find—Andrei Svechnikov tops the list. He was first on all 22 contributing scouts’ lists, with several implying that he could jump right to the NHL already. Svechnikov had 14 points in 10 games for the Barrie Colts before injuring his hand, should return to the lineup at some point in mid-to-late December. He’s a near lock to go in the top three selections next June.

  • The Columbus Blue Jackets have activated Lukas Sedlak from injured reserve, giving them some more depth at center. The Blue Jackets have used Nick Foligno in the middle for much of this season, but could move him back to the wing where he is much more experienced now that they have another healthy body. The team could still obviously use another center, but have several options with how to deploy their lineup.
  • Jason Brough of TSN has heard that the Florida Panthers have at least some interest still in Erik Gudbranson, even though we had previously heard otherwise. Brough also reports that “a few other teams” have interest in the Vancouver Canucks’ defenseman which would mesh with the report that the Toronto Maple Leafs have poked around. Gudbranson will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.
  • Marian Gaborik is nearing a return for the Los Angeles Kings, and head coach John Stevens spoke with Jon Rosen of LA Kings Insider on the progression of the 35-year old sniper. The Kings continue to lead the Pacific Division, and it will be interesting to see if Gaborik can find a role on the team after several years of sub-par performance.

Russia Attempting To Pass Bill To Forbid KHL Players From Olympics

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Already with the NHL not participating in the Olympics, a new report has surfaced today from NHL.com’s Igor Eronko that the Russian parliament is preparing a bill for the KHL that would allow the league to forbid its players to participate in the 2018 Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. That would also include players in the league from other countries as well, suggesting that Russia doesn’t want any national team to use KHL players.

That could put a damper on any hopes of Canada and the United States from putting together competitive teams as both squads were expected to dip into the KHL for players on their respective teams. TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that this new development could get sticky as both the United States and Canada teams believe that U.S./Canada players in the KHL are there on IIHF transfers and the IIHF has sanctioned Olympic participation.

The news comes on the heel of news that International Olympic Committee will decide on Dec. 5 whether Russia will be allowed to compete in the Pyeongchang Winter Games due to state-backed doping at the 2014 Sochi Olympics.

If this bill goes through, it could also start an uproar from former NHL players like Andrei Markov, who went overseas with the intention of playing in the Olympics. With the NHL already having decided long ago they will not participate in next year’s Olympic Games, Russia was considered to be the favorite since they would have the best players outside of the NHL. Perhaps not.

 

 

Suspension Sunday: Gudas Gets 10 Games, Watson Gets Two

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Following a dangerous slash on the Winnipeg Jets’ Mathieu Perreault, Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Radko Gudas was suspended for ten games per the NHL’s Department of Player Safety. A video of the incident, including an explanation and rationale for the suspension was released as well. TSN’s Frank Seravalli tweets that the suspension will cost Gudas $408,538.60.

This isn’t the first time that Gudas finds himself on the wrong side of the NHL’s law. In 2016, Gudas was suspended for six games following a vicious hit on Boston’s Austin Czarnik. In December of 2015, he was suspended for three games after head hunting Mika Zibanejad.

Ejections and misconducts have been a staple of his play, and the ten game suspension is a loud message from the NHL’s Safety Department. With a game that is under the microscope for head hits in a CTE aware world, Gudas’ two-handed slash to Perreault’s head, who has a history of concussions, was an easy call for a long suspension. While Gudas claimed it was “accidental,” the department of player safety indicated that as  repeat offender under the terms of the CBA, he was suspended for ten games.

There are some who feel the suspension wasn’t heavy enough, in light of Gudas’ history targeting the head. If Gudas doesn’t learn from this suspension, next time may be even longer, more costly for the wallet and possibly his employment.

  • In other suspension news, the Nashville Predators’ Austin Watson received a two-game suspension from the NHL Department of Player Safety for his hit on Colorado’s Dominic Toninato. Video of the hit and explanation can be found here. Watson hit Toninato after the Avs’ forward chipped the puck out of the zone. His back turned and in a defenseless position, Tonianato was boarded by Watson and because of no prior history of suspensions, fines, or unsportsmanlike hits, Watson received a two-game suspension.

NHL Considering Changes To Minor Penalties

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All 31 NHL general managers met in Montreal on Friday for the annual GM Meetings to discuss important league policies and procedures. Despite little conversation on the topic arising beforehand, Sportsnet insiders Christ Johnston and Elliotte Friedman report that one of the major issues discussed was potential changes to minor penalties, specifically the length of certain minor penalties and the length of minor penalties in overtime.

What exactly was discussed? While the league has expressed its pleasure with the cleaner game this season as a result of tighter penalty calls, it has now come to the attention of all GM’s that perhaps not all minor penalties are worthy of the same penalty. The solution debated Friday was instituting one-minute minors. Johnston reports that two-minute minor penalties in overtime, where each and every second is amplified, are perhaps too punitive in regards to a five-minute period. A one-minute minor for all minors in OT would still allow for the drawing team to have an advantage, without eliminating the scoring chance of the penalized team for nearly half of the overtime frame. Friedman continued that besides the situational OT one-minute minors, GM’s discussed cutting a pair of controversial minor penalties in half during regular time as well. Unsurprisingly, these two penalties are delay of game and face-off violation. The delay of game penalty for putting the puck over the glass has been criticized since its inception for unduly harming a team for what is almost always a pure accident. The new face-off violation penalty has also been seen as unworthy or penalty status, though the frequency of the call has dropped off substantially from the preseason to the regular season.

A change in penalty time in the overtime period would be a novel move for the NHL; something unseen in most major sports. The change in time for specific minor penalties though would not be unlike lacrosse, in which most leagues use a wide range of different penalty lengths depending on the infraction. It is an intriguing idea that is just in its infancy, but variable minor penalty times could serve to benefit the NHL.

Bruins, Blackhawks To Meet in 2019 Winter Classic

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The NHL announced today that the 2019 Winter Classic will be played at Notre Dame Stadium between the Boston Bruins and the Chicago Blackhawks on Jan. 1, 2019.

The Bruins and the Blackhawks, two historic Original Six franchises, will meet outdoors for the first time ever. While it is the first time they will meet outdoors against each other, the Blackhawks will be making their fourth Winter Classic appearance. The Bruins have appeared in the annual game three times. It will be the 11th Winter Classic.

The two teams will get a chance to play in the 80,000 capacity Notre Dame Stadium as it’s likely this will have the biggest live audience of any NHL game ever.

The New York Rangers and Buffalo Sabres will be meeting at the 2018 NHL Winter Classic at Citi Field in Queens, New York on Jan. 1, 2018.

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