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Is Houston A Viable NHL Hockey Market?

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When the NHL began discussing expansion a few years ago, the plan was never to add one team. No owner or league executive stood up and said “31 is the perfect number!” The idea has always been to bring in two more teams to bring the total to 32, the same number that the National Football League has managed since 2002. So whether you are of the opinion that the Arizona Coyotes, Carolina Hurricanes, or New York Islanders need to re-locate or not, the fact of the matter is that the NHL will welcome a new city regardless in the near future.

The overwhelming opinion seems to be that Seattle, Washington is next in line to follow Las Vegas. The city is full of die-hard sports fans who cheer vehemently for the Seahawks, Mariners, and Sounders and have been clamoring for a basketball team since the SuperSonics left. They also show up to watch junior hockey, as the WHL’s Seattle Thunderbirds finished in the top half of attendance in 2016-17. Millionaire Chris Hansen has been pushing hard for support to build a new arena with plans to bring back the NBA and bring in the NHL, while Seattle mayor Ed Murray has been negotiating with the NHL on the city’s behalf as well.

Seattle could very well be the 32nd NHL team. However, some hockey purists would like to see the league go back to the small market of Quebec City and revive the Nordiques. Others don’t mind the Seattle plans, but would rather a team go about 150 miles south to Portland, Oregon, where the WHL’s Portland Winterhawks outdraw the Seattle Thunderbirds. Some stand up for places like Kansas City, Missouri, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and Hartford, Connecticut. You may even hear a few in favor of going back to Atlanta already. What you don’t hear much of though is talk about Houston, Texas. That is until now.

Last month, Leslie Alexander, the owner of the NBA’s Houston Rockets and the Toyota Center, announced that he would be selling the team. While this may simply seem like the NBA’s business on its face, it could have big implications for the NHL. Alexander had attempted to purchase the Edmonton Oilers back in 1998 with a plan to move them to Houston. However, the league turned the offer down, opting instead to keep one of it’s most well-known franchises in Canada where it belonged. Alexander held a grudge not only against the NHL, but against hockey. He all but forced the AHL’s Houston Aeros, beloved by the local fan base, out of the city by charging unreasonable rent at the Toyota Center. The Minnesota Wild had to move their part-owned affiliate to Iowa, where they remain today. With the Aeros gone, the city’s interest in hockey seemingly disappeared and with Alexander remaining in charge of the Rockets and Toyota Center, there was little hope of the NHL or AHL ever returning.

With Alexander selling the Rockets, and likely his stake in the Toyota Center as well, those hopes are alive once again. But is Houston interested in having an NHL team? Is the NHL interested in going to Houston? It certainly makes some sense on paper. Houston is the fifth largest city in the United States – behind only New York, L.A., Chicago, and nearby Dallas – and has only seen its population grow in recent years. It is also a major three-sport city. The Rockets have always been very successful, recently the MLB’s Astros have righted the ship and boast a strong team, and the NFL’s Texans, still the league’s newest team dating back to 2002, are wildly popular. With that success comes both a strong fan base and a industry that is comfortable with throwing lots of money into athletic sponsorship. Financially, Houston would seem to be as good a fit as any. They also have a suitable arena, which Seattle does not, and a much greater population and pro sports history than any of Quebec City, Portland, Milwaukee, or Hartford.

The NHL sought expansion bids three years ago and accepted just one: Bill Foley’s Las Vegas bid. Many were surprised that Seattle and Quebec City among other could not place a suitable bid. If that process was to occur again, after the Rockets deal is done, would the new owner or another interested Texan place a bid? Or would a perceived lack of interest in the NHL prevent it from happening, yet another surprise in the NHL bidding process? There is still plenty of uncertainty surrounding the situation, but NHL Expansion is not over yet and now, for the first time in years, Houston is at least back in the conversation.

Colorado’s Holes On The Blue Line

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It’s no secret that many people expect the Colorado Avalanche to be the worst team in the NHL again next year. Those who don’t generally put them just ahead of the Vegas Golden Knights, and fighting to be better than an expansion team in their inaugural season is not exactly a great spot for a franchise. However, there was not really much that GM Joe Sakic and the Avs could do this off-season, with so few veteran players on their roster who would have value on the trade market and an understandable reluctance to trade away young talent. In a weak free agent and trade market, no one could have drastically turned the team around either. The rebuild is ongoing in Colorado and they need to take their time with it an do it right so that a 48-point season never happens again.

With that said, it still doesn’t hurt, even for a rebuilding team, to try to be more competitive by adding a veteran player or two. Sakic understands that. He has gone out and added Jonathan Bernier, one of top goalies available, to back up Semyon Varlamov following the expansion selection of Calvin Pickard. He then traded for forward Colin Wilson from the Nashville Predators for a fourth-round pick, a relative bargain but a draft pick from a rebuilding team all the same. If the team had decided to tank this season, and accept everyone’s expectations of them, they could have just handed those jobs to underwhelming prospects Spencer Martin and Rocco Grimaldi.

Why then does the Avalanche blue line look the way it does then? Even assuming that restricted free agent defenseman Nikita Zadorov re-signs with Colorado as anticipated, that would still give the team just four defenseman on one-way contracts. Zadorov, a 6’5″, 230-lb. behemoth, is just 22 and the centerpiece of the Avs defense, while Tyson Barrie and Erik Johnson are talented veterans on long-term contracts. Yet, Johnson is injury-prone and Barrie often struggles in his own end. The fourth man is Mark Barberio, who was claimed off of waivers from the Montreal Canadiens last season and is penciled into a top-four role next season despite regularly playing bottom-pair minutes before arriving in Colorado. Beyond those four, not the most inspiring blue line corps in the NHL by any means, the bottom pair would likely be occupied by AHL veterans Anton Lindholm and Duncan Siemens, who were -10 with zero points in a combined 15 games last year. Other options include Chris Bigras, who has just one NHL game under his belt, first-year pro Andrei Mironov, and free agent addition David Warsofsky. 

Sakic was willing to solidify his net and his forward corps and needs to do the same for his blue line. Zadorov, Barrie, and Johnson are fine for a top three, though each have their issues, and Barberio is a suitable starter. No one will blame the Avs for moving on from aging and ineffective veterans Francois Beauchemin and Fedor Tyutin, but might the team at least look into bringing back one of Eric Gelinas or Cody Goloubef, who both remain unsigned? Even that may not be enough. The obvious top choice would have to be Cody Franson, the top free agent defenseman left on the market. Franson may be a right-handed shot like Barrie and Johnson, but no doubt could help this team and play a major role. Franson could be especially helpful in re-booting an Avs power play that ranked dead last in 2016-17. Another player who could help in that department and with moving the puck could be Dennis Wideman. The veteran rearguard was once a prominent possession defenseman like Barrie and could give a boost to a Colorado offense that is often stagnant. If the Avalanche are shying away from older players like Wideman, they could take a chance on the oft-injured, but talented Simon Despres or on the unproven Jyrki Jokipakka instead. A big move that could be in play if they wanted to take the risk: an offer sheet to young New Jersey Devils puck-mover Damon Severson. Severson had a breakout year last season and looks to be a bona fide top-four offensive defenseman. The Devils are in a similarly rough shape on their blue line and would likely match any deal offered, but it could be worth a shot for the Avalanche, who could desperately use a promising young defender, even with future star Cale Makar coming down the road.

There are many options open to Sakic and the Avalanche and hopefully they find an avenue they like and take it. No one is expecting a rebuilding team to sell off pieces for a premiere defenseman, but they do expect Colorado to at least make an effort to field an NHL-caliber defense. At this point in time, the Avs don’t have that. No one wants to see another 48-point season in Denver. It’s time for Sakic to take action.

Cost Per Point: The Best Value Deals In The NHL

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When working with a salary cap, especially one that has not been increasing as expected in recent year, it is vital for general managers to get the most production out of their players. Teams with players who meet the expected level of production implied by their contracts and teams that lack wasted dollars in bad, expensive deals are often the same teams that thrive in today’s NHL. Forget market size or free agent appeal, the key to a winning franchise nowadays is getting the best bang for your buck on every player on the roster. While no player can be fully quantified by their scoring, cost per point is an easy way to look at which players are producing at the most team-friendly rate and which have been more of a cap space killer than a positive member of the team. Thanks to CapFriendly, that information is readily available to fans and NHL executives alike.

The benchmark for this metric is about $100K/point, as GM’s expect those big-time forwards and offensive defenseman who they award with $6MM, $7MM, and $8MM per year contracts to be putting up 60, 70, or 80 points respectively. For the second year in a row, St. Louis Blues superstar Vladimir Tarasenko was the poster boy for this standard, coming in at exactly $100K/point with 75 points on a $7.5MM deal. Winnipeg’s Bryan Little and New Jersey’s Adam Henrique are two other notable names that hit the mark exactly, while phenoms like Sidney Crosby and Duncan Keith landing close to the $100K/point mark show that it is an accurate expectation.

However, the exception to the rule is obviously entry-level contracts. It is no secret that drafting and developing well is the best way to improve you team, beginning with affordable scoring from players on their rookie deals. Nowhere is that more apparent than in cost per point, where nine of the top ten and 17 of the top 20 best contracts were rookie deals. To no one surprise, 20-year-old MVP Connor McDavid and his 100 points on a $925K entry-level contract was far and away the best bargain in hockey. McDavid cost the Oilers only $9,250 per point in 2016-17. That will all change soon, as McDavid is set to begin an eight-year, $100MM contract in 2018-19, after which a 100-point campaign will cost Edmonton $125,000/point, closer to the expectations of a standard contract. For now, the Oilers can enjoy one more year of McDavid likely being the best deal in the NHL, as well as the best player. Entry-level deals joining McDavid in the top ten last year (in order) were Viktor Arvidsson, Artemi Panarin, teammate Leon Draisaitl, Conor Sheary, David Pastrnak, Auston Matthews, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Patrik Laine. Not all entry-level deals are created equal, so while Draisaitl and Pastrnak were second and fourth respectively in entry-level scoring, they were also on the ELC maximum deal of $925K and of slightly lesser value to their teams than the likes of Arvidsson ($632K) and Sheary ($667.5K). Panarin had the best contract in the league in 2015-16 and fell only to third with $10,980/point for the Chicago Blackhawks. Now in Columbus and on a two-year, $12MM deal, the Blue Jackets have to hope that they can continue to get 70+ point seasons out of him to maximize the value of that deal.

So, entry-level contracts aside, who was the best contract in hockey last season? Another easy answer, former Blue Jacket gamble Sam Gagner. After a horrendous 2015-16 campaign with the Philadelphia Flyers, Gagner struggled to find a new team last summer, eventually settling on a $650K “show me” deal with Columbus. Right away people tagged that contract, for a six-time 40+ point scorer, as an absolute bargain, even if Gagner simply bounced back to normal production. He did one better, posting a career-high 50 points for the Jackets and coming in at $13K/point, good enough for sixth in the NHL. Gagner has since moved on to the Vancouver Canucks, signing a three-year, $9.45MM contract on July 1st. However, if he is able to continue to produce at 40-50 point levels over that deal, his $3.15MM cap hit will remain a great bargain deal. Behind Gagner, another player on the move this summer, former Florida Panther and current Vegas Golden Knight Jonathan Marchessault had the 13th-ranked cost per point last year at $14,706/point. Marchessault had a breakout year, netting 51 points in the first season of a two-year, $1.5MM deal. Rather than take advantage of one more $750K season for a 30-goal scorer, the Panthers allowed Marchessault to be selected in the Expansion Draft and Vegas surely hopes he continues to be one of the best values in hockey in 2017-18. The final contract in the top 20 not belonging to an entry-level player, and the only 35+ veteran contract in the top 50, belongs to Marchessault’s replacement in Florida, Radim Vrbata. Vrbata returned home to Arizona last season after a down year in Vancouver the season prior, and the swift 36-year old proceeded to score 55 points, more than double his previous year’s total. On a one-year deal with a $1MM base salary, that only cost the Coyotes $18,182/point last season. Now at a base salary of $2.5MM in Florida, the Panthers hope that Vrbata isn’t starting to slow down just yet. Other impressive value contracts included Patrick Eaves, whose breakout season in Dallas led to a trade and subsequent extension with the Anaheim Ducks, Derek Ryan, who shocked the hockey world with 29 points for the Carolina Hurricanes in his first full NHL season at age 30, and a quartet of recently re-signed RFAs in Richard Panik, Ryan Dzingel, Ryan Spooner, and Jordan Martinook.

With the good comes the bad, and there were certainly some poor value contracts in the NHL last year. Many of the worst belong to players who were injured or AHL depth players that saw only limited time. With zero points in 13 games with a $1.25MM cap hit, Tampa Bay Lightning winger Erik Condra’s value was not even quantifiable it was so bad, and at the highest salary of any player who went pointless last season. Limited to just 18 games with only four points, another Bolts forward, Ryan Callahan, was one of the worst values due to injury with $1.45MM per point on his $5.8MM cap hit. However, the truly worst contract in the NHL has to belong to a player that player a majority of the season. Sadly for a Detroit fan base that is already feeling pretty down-and-out, that designation belongs to Red Wings defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who began a six-year, $30MM extension by scoring about a third less points for the third season in a row. With 12 points in 82 games at $5MM, DeKeyser’s $416.7K/point is pretty ugly. The Buffalo Sabres struck out twice on the blue line, with both Dmitry Kulikov (five points in 47 games at $4.33MM) and Josh Gorges (six points in 66 games at $3.9MM) coming in at $866.7K/point and $650K/point respectively, though neither is known as a major point producer. The worst forward contract? Andrew Desjardins may not have been relied upon as a full-time player with much ice time last season with the Chicago Blackhawks, but with only one point in 46 games, $800K/point, it’s not difficult to see why he remains an unsigned free agent.

While statistics and analytics in hockey are normally geared toward displaying on-ice production, it is always interesting to look at the game from a business perspective. It is important for teams and fans alike to understand not just the absolute of how a player is producing, but the relative value of that production based on how much money that player is being paid. In a salary cap league, there is nothing more important that production value, and as the game grows the focus will only further tighten on scoring as a function of dollars and the cost per point metric.

Snapshots: Alexander Nylander, Jon Gillies, Max Talbot

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19-year old winger Alexander Nylander may get his shot in Buffalo this season, according to Ian McLaren of the Score, who spoke with Nylander’s Swedish coach. Nylander was selected 8th overall in last year’s draft, and had a strong season in the AHL with Rochester. He saw action in 4 games for the Sabres, but tallied only one assist. He theoretically has the option to return to the Swedish Hockey League, for AIK, but there has been no indication he will do so. Nylander will have his work cut out for him if he hopes to crack the roster, however. The Sabres filled out their forward depth relatively well this off-season, adding Jason Pominville (right-winger) via trade and Jacob Josefson (right-winger) via free agency. He could likely find a home on the fourth-line, but he would likely benefit from more seasoning if he can’t force a decision outright. His older brother, William Nylander, did need parts of two seasons with the Marlies before he stuck with the Leafs. Alex Nylander’s dynamic offensive skillset is badly needed in Buffalo this season, however, especially when one considers the lean defense they will be trotting out.

  • When Flames’ goalie Jon Gillies was signed to a two-way contract a few weeks ago, many wondered how much that would impact the team’s future plans in net. Gillies had a solid win in his first NHL start last season, but struggled slightly in Stockton. The 6’6 goalie is a third-round pick from 2012, but was solid in Providence and has shown flashes of brilliance at only 23. Gillies will need to string together a solid performance at the AHL level and hope for either Mike Smith or Eddie Lack to falter or fall to injury, as the two acquisitions by GM Brad Treliving put him in an unenviable position. The possibility of a goaltending carousel in Calgary seems more possible than many are willing to admit, especially if Gillies or Tyler Parsons push the issue from the minors with stellar performance. This will only be Gillies’ second pro season, after all, and he has the talent to make things interesting.
  • With the certainty of NHL non-participation in the 2018 Olympics, it opens quite a few doors for players who have left the league for Europe or elsewhere. “Busts” and “has-beens” could make up a large portion of the U.S. and Canadian rosters, it seems. Today in Sochi, numerous ex-NHLers displayed their skills in hopes of impressing those who will choose the 2018 Olympic roster. A miniature tournament is essentially the beginning of the audition to be considered for the selection process. Canada faced off against Russia, and the teams will have friendly contests against one another later in August. According to Tim Wharnsby of CBS Sports, some of those hopefuls for Canada include Max Talbot, Gilbert Brule, and Rob Klinkhammer. Talbot was a gritty winger who clutched two goals against Detroit in Game 7 of the 2009 Stanley Cup Finals for Pittsburgh. Brule is a former top pick of CBJ who floated from team to team without much success, and Klinkhammer was a fringe bottom-sixer who never truly found a home. Many players of this ilk could claim roster spots, and fans of the sport may have some names from the past resurface to prominence as we approach Pyeongchang.

Blue Jackets Look To Fill Center Hole

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When center William Karlsson was sacrificed to the Vegas Golden Knights, the Blue Jackets lost a potent two-way tool up the middle. For a team who scores as much by committee as Columbus did last season, the team was bound to lose a valuable roster player. Although he only scored 6 goals and 25 points, he logged tough minutes against tough competition. It should be noted that, for all his defensive starts (62%), his advanced stats have been persistently sub-par. While Karlsson easily passed the eye test, his Corsi For was a lousy 43% in 2016-17, and that isn’t far from his career average. It may be a situation where analytics don’t tell the entire story, but Karlsson was actually trending backwards last season when looking at relative possession. Regardless, someone will need to step up internally to fill that roster void at the the 3rd line center position, as noted in an article by Mark Scheig of the Hockey Writers.

Scheig of course notes the work of rookie Lukas Sedlak, who performed admirably in his fourth-line duties. Sedlak could be ready to step up, but a lot will depend on how he performs in camp. He showed a bit of offensive touch, with 7 goals in 62 NHL contests, and marginal point totals in his Junior days. However, Sedlak was injured down the stretch and will need to re-assert himself into the lineup. He won’t be nearly as sheltered as he was last season, either. Notably, he’ll be competing against Pierre-Luc Dubois, the #3 pick from last year’s draft. Dubois finished out his last year in the QJMHL with the Blanville-Boisbriand Armada after being traded min-season. In an injury shortened campaign, he only posted 55 points in 48 games, a sharp step down from his 99-point performance in 62 games during his draft year. Dubois arguably regressed more than any other 2016 top-10 pick, and it might be unreasonable to expect him to dominate in camp. Dubois still has a heavy shot, solid hockey IQ and uses his size effectively, but consistency at the NHL level may be a difficult ask from a 19 year old returning from a down year.

Internally, other players can slot to the position. Scheig mentions that Boone Jenner can fill in when needed, but it’s no permanent solution. Going the free agency route at this late stage seems rather unlikely, as well. That really leaves coach John Tortorella in a tough position if Dubois fails to make an impact and Sedlak remains what he is. The team does have a glut of defensive prospects, but considering that they went out of their way to protect them from Vegas’ expansion sights, they may not be willing to part with a major piece just yet. The Blue Jackets may simply need to ride out some of the season with a hole in their top-nine if training camp doesn’t crown a clear replacement for Karlsson. Unlike many of the Vegas selections, this one could impact a team’s makeup noticeably. In an incredibly competitive Metropolitan division, a solitary step back could mean the difference between eyeing a division title or fighting for a wild card berth. Still, after adding the dynamic Artemi Panarin this off-season and watching a talented young defense gain valuable playoff experience, Jackets’ fans will likely not be overly concerned just yet.

Winnipeg’s Forward Depth And Versatility Valuable In Trade Market

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The Winnipeg Jets finished just 7 points out of a playoff berth this season. Like the Islanders (41 wins) and Lightning (42 wins), the Jets (40 wins) were on the verge of making it to the show in the final weeks. As such, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff didn’t feel the necessity to spend large this off-season, nor make any substantial trades. Cheveldayoff shored up the goaltending position with Steve Mason on a two-year contract, and hopes that will be enough to push the team over the edge. Still, if management feels that improvements should be made, the team has the assets and the versatility up front to do so. It’s uncertain whether Dmitry Kulikov will be enough to shore up what was a poor-performing defensive group last year. A spare forward could be floated for more help in their own end, even though their 6 slots seem safely filled at the moment.

Particularly at the center position, the Jets have one of the more enviable situations league-wide. By my count, the Jets have 9 roster players who can theoretically slot in for center duties. Mark Scheifele, Bryan Little, Mathieu Perreault, Shawn Matthias, Adam Lowry, Michael Sgarbossa, Marko Dano and Brandon Tanev all can play up the middle. Scheifele is obviously the first line center, and Little is safely pegged at number two. After that, things get a bit interesting. Perreault finished the season while spending some time on the wing, and his goal scoring dried up – he only had 22 in the past two seasons. His point production is still locked in at 40+, but considering his $4.125 MM cap hit for the next four seasons, maybe now is the time to opt out. Matthias is interesting primarily because he only has one season remaining before he hits unrestricted free agency.  He can slot on the third or fourth lines and provide mediocre depth production, but his marginal worth wouldn’t be enough to land a difference maker in a trade.

Little also sees his current deal expire at the conclusion off 2017-18, and his new contract could be relatively hefty. With Blake Wheeler due another contract hike after 2018-19, and Jacob Trouba looking for a raise after this year, there is the possibility Little could be moved for the right package. Still, he’s one of the more consistent players on the Jets and has never known another franchise. If he were to be shopped, the return could be quite pricey for many competing teams. He’s perceived as a top-end #2 center and his internal value is quite steep. Following that, Lowry will continue to build on his progression last year, where he tallied 29 points. He’s yet to put it all together, but his size and still tender age of 24 wouldn’t make him the first target for movement. Dano is far more comfortable on the wing, and he’s likely going nowhere. Sgarbossa is essentially a non-factor, as is Tanev, in terms of drawing league interest.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Nicolas Petan should find himself a regular this season, and many expect him to push for that 3rd line center position. As with many of the other names, he can slot on the wing instead, but that might not be the best use of his talents long-term. If he forces Lowry down the depth chart further, does that make a player like Little more expendable for the right move? What would the interest be like for a player of Perreault’s caliber? Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that we’ll know until well into the season. Cheveldayoff has been firm in staying the course with the young and promising Jets, and he’s more likely to wait at least until the conclusion of training camp before making any major transaction.

Breaking Down John Tavares Standoff With Isles

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As reported by PHR’s Gavin Lee, New York Islanders’ star John Tavares was quiet when asked about his extension. The 26-year-old was eligible to sign an extension with the Islanders starting on July 1, but after five weeks still hasn’t done it. Speculation suggests that he is keeping a keen eye on two critical elements, including the team’s success as well as whether the team will find a home. He has said he would like to stay in New York and continue to play for the Islanders, but is keeping his thoughts internally.

However, the New York Posts’ Larry Brooks writes that history suggests that what a player says during negotiations doesn’t mean anything. He cites former New York Rangers’ captain Ryan Callahan in 2014 as having said the same thing, only to be traded to the Tampa Bay Lightning after negotiations broke down over a no-trade clause the Rangers didn’t want to include. The scribe writes, however, that these negotiations have little to do with a no-trade clause or even money. The Islanders are willing to offer it all.

Brooks believes that the Islanders’ struggles, despite picking up Jordan Eberle this offseason, might count against the New York team. Tavares has played eight seasons in the NHL and has only made three trips to the playoffs, and only ies. Maybe, he wants more success. On top of that, the team still is having trouble finding a new home for the franchise. Is Belmont Park the answer? Possibly, but it’s not perfect and nothing is cemented in stone. Maybe he wants to wait until that is resolved. Many people compare Tavares to the Steven Stamkos standoff last year, but Tampa Bay had been to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2015 and to a Game 7 in the conference finals in 2016. They were a successful franchise.

While the eight-year contract they can offer to Tavares (as opposed to seven years for any other team) is critical to the Islanders, Brooks questions that advantage as well. Citing the belief that the Tampa Bay Lightning will make a play for the forward, he writes that Florida’s lack of a state tax would save Tavares quite a bit of cash. He writes that if the Islanders offer him an eight year, $80MM contract ($10MM per year), that would leave him with $41.81MM after taxes, according to Brooks. If Tampa Bay offers him a seven-year, $59.5MM deal ($8.5MM per year), Tavares would get to keep $36.28MM after taxes, which is only $5MM less overall. So that eighth year isn’t as big of a factor when dealing with teams that have no state income tax.

There are a lot of maybes, but there is a good chance the Islanders will be forced to trade Tavares if they want to keep their franchise afloat.

 

Blues Snapshots: Steen, Parayko, AHL, Fabbri

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Don’t be surprised if the St. Louis Blues move on from Alex Steen, eventually. While St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Jim Rutherford answered questions on the newspaper’s website, he added that while he’d be surprised to see Steen moved at this point in the offseason, he wouldn’t be shocked if the Blues were to look into trading him at the trade deadline next year or in the offseason.

The 33-year-old Steen’s new contract that he signed last offseason will be kicking in this year. He signed a four-year, $23MM contract and while his production has been consistently solid over the last couple of years (33 goals and 70 assists combined in last two years), the veteran is suddenly beginning to get in the way of the Blues massing core of young wingers, including Vladimir Tarasenko (25), Jaden Schwartz (25), Dmitrij Jaskin (24), Robby Fabbri (21 — although he could move to center next season — see below), Oskar Sundqvist (23) and Beau Bennett (25).

Rutherford adds the team still needs a veteran like Steen to provide the leadership to the youth, but there will be a point in which the team will be confident in its young wingers that it’s unlikely he’ll finish out his contract in St. Louis.

  • In the same piece, Rutherford writes that he expects young defenseman Colton Parayko to step up this season for the Blues and become the star defenseman they were hoping for. While his goals scored dropped from nine to four last year, his points still went up, finishing with 35 points compared to 33 two years ago. The scribe writes that with Kevin Shattenkirk finally gone, Parayko should be able to raise his scoring numbers and develop into a No. 1 defenseman.
  • Rutherford also writes that with the team agreeing to AHL agreements with the Chicago Wolves (Vegas’ affiliate) and the San Antonio Rampage (Colorado’s affiliate), the team will send prospects to either team, but are likely to have little say about playing time for their prospects. Both Vegas and Colorado will be putting a priority on their own prospects, leaving any Blues prospects to force their way into playing time.
  • Former 2014 first-rounder Fabbri is currently penciled in as the team’s third-line center behind Paul Stastny and new acquisition Brayden Schenn. However, if they feel he is ready to put up a big season, Rutherford writes that it is likely he’ll be moved up to be a wing on the second line and force Steen to move to the right side.

 

Free Agent Profile: Brian Gionta

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Finding consistent secondary scoring is a challenge for most teams.  UFA winger Brian Gionta has been quietly consistent in recent years but remains on the open market through the first month of free agency.

Feb 4, 2017; Buffalo, NY, USA; Buffalo Sabres right wing Brian Gionta (12) during the second period against the Ottawa Senators at KeyBank Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY SportsGionta, who captained the Sabres the past three seasons, had his highest goal output (15) with Buffalo while matching his highest point total (35) in 2016-17.  While he is no longer the consistent 25+ goal scorer he was with New Jersey in his prime, he has tallied at least 12 times in each of the last five years while notching at least 33 points in four of those.  (The year he didn’t was the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season where he had 26 in 48 games, a 44 point pace.)

So why does he remain unsigned so far?  He has a few things working against him.  For starters, he’s 38 years old and there are quite a few other older players still unsigned so far (including Jaromir Jagr, Jarome Iginla, and Shane Doan, who all also play the right wing).  It’s hardly a booming market for the long-term veterans.

Gionta’s smaller stature (5’7) will also scare some teams off.  He’s not a bad skater by any stretch but he has lost some of his speed in recent years which doesn’t help either as the pace of play continues to quicken.  Nonetheless, with scoring at a premium, his consistent level of production should still have at least a few teams interested at the right price.

Potential Suitors

At this stage of his career, it doesn’t seem likely that Gionta, a Rochester native, will want to move his family too far from the New York area.  That will limit his options considerably.  He’d best fit in on a team that rolls three offensive lines where he could start on the third unit and move up from time to time when needed.

His most recent team in Buffalo still makes some sense.  They have the cap room this season to work with and Gionta won’t need a multi-year deal while there could be a spot in their top nine wings for him to start.  New Jersey, where Gionta spent his prime, would also be a fit.  Their winger depth isn’t the strongest as things stand and it would allow him to potentially wrap up his career where it all started.  If Boston wants to have a capable veteran around in case their prospects aren’t ready, they would make sense as a landing spot as well.

Projected Contract

Six weeks ago, Gionta slotted in 39th on our Top 50 Free Agents list with a projected one-year, $2MM contract.  For someone who can somewhat safely be penciled in for 30+ points, that’s still pretty good value but given the number of veteran secondary scorers that are still out there, it doesn’t seem likely he’ll be able to get that unless he’s willing to have some of that in potential performance bonuses.  At this point, something closer to $1.25MM may be more of a realistic target if the veteran of over 1,000 games decides he’d like to play for another year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: Zadorov, Duchene, Somerby

at CDT | by 2 Comments

While there has been some speculation that Avalanche defenseman Nikita Zadorov might consider signing in the KHL for next season, BSN Denver’s Adrian Dater reports that progress has been made on a deal that would keep the blueliner with Colorado.  Dater adds that Zadorov’s asking price on a shorter-term bridge contract is between $2.75MM – $3MM while the Avs have come in closer to the $2MM range.

The 22-year-old averaged a career high 19:02 per game last season but, like many others with the Avalanche, struggled at times in his own end.  Still, while his offensive game hasn’t amounted to much yet, his combination of size and physicality continues to make Zadorov an intriguing project as Colorado continues their rebuild.

Other notes from around the league:

  • The Penguins have been a team that has been surprisingly linked to Avalanche center Matt Duchene this summer. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette notes that Colorado was seeking defenseman Olli Maatta as well as prospect winger Daniel Sprong and a first round pick in order to part with Duchene, a price that GM Jim Rutherford hasn’t been willing to pay just yet.  While Pittsburgh has a vacancy at their third line center spot, it would be hard to imagine they’d use Duchene in that role if they were able to land him.  Instead, it would likely make more sense to use him on the left wing.
  • Add Islanders defensive prospect Doyle Somerby to the list of college prospects that intend to test the open market past August 15th. His agent, Brent Peterson, told Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe that there could be as many as five other teams could be interested in Somerby’s services.  The 23-year-old stay-at-home rearguard has spent the past four years at Boston University and captained the team in his senior season.  Peterson didn’t rule out the possibility of Somerby, ultimately signing with the Isles (who drafted him in the fifth round in 2012) but given how close he is to becoming an unrestricted free agent, the blueliner has decided to see what other opportunities may be out there as well.

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