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Expiring NCAA Draft Rights

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Will Butcher and Alex Kerfoot have graced many headlines over the last few months, as players who will be heading to free agency next week when their exclusive draft rights expire. Since they finished their senior years without an NHL entry-level contract, they can test the market on August 16th and sign wherever they want.

They’re not the only two, and CapFriendly provides us with a full list of players whose rights will expire next week. Several of the names listed have already signed minor league contracts with various organizations for next year, and will be excluded from the list below. The remaining players are as follows:

Sam Kurker – St. Louis Blues (2nd round, 2012)
Taylor Cammarata – New York Islanders (3rd round, 2013)
Chris Calnan – Chicago Blackhawks (3rd round, 2013)
Rhett Holland – Arizona Coyotes (4th round, 2012)
Zach Nagelvoort – Edmonton Oilers  (4th round, 2014)
Will Butcher – Colorado Avalanche (5th round, 2013)
Doyle Somerby – New York Islanders (5th round, 2012)
Dominic Toninato – Toronto Maple Leafs (5th round, 2012)
Evan Campbell – Edmonton Oilers (5th round, 2013)
Connor Clifton – Arizona Coyotes (5th round, 2013)
Teemu Kivihalme – Nashville Predators (5th round, 2013)*
Grant Besse – Anaheim Ducks (5th round, 2013)
Alex Kerfoot – New Jersey Devils (5th round, 2012)
Ben Storm – Colorado Avalanche (6th round, 2013)
Tim Harrison – Calgary Flames (6th round, 2013)
Collin Olson – Carolina Hurricanes (6th round, 2012)
Chris Leblanc – Ottawa Senators (6th round, 2013)
Clifford Watson – San Jose Sharks (6th round, 2012)
James De Haas – Detroit Red Wings (6th round, 2012)
Blaine Byron – Pittsburgh Penguins (6th round, 2013)
Wade Murphy – Nashville Predators (7th round, 2013)
Brendan Collier – Carolina Hurricanes (7th round, 2012)
Jedd Soleway – Arizona Coyotes (7th round, 2013)
Nolan De Jong – Minnesota Wild (7th round, 2013)

*Has signed with Karpat of the Finnish Liiga.

Many of these players spent time in the minor leagues this past spring on amateur tryout contracts, but will become free agents if not signed by end of day on August 15th. That gives teams time to still get them into their system, but in cases like Toninato there may just not be enough room to fit him in on an entry-level contract. Even those on minor league deals will be free agents at the end of their contract, as those do not protect exclusive draft rights.

Summer Predictions: Atlantic Division

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The hockey world is at a standstill now that August has rolled around. With all of the arbitration cases now decided and just a few restricted free agents left to sign, players and fans alike are counting the days until training camp starts. While there are still several names in free agency that could still help an NHL club, it seems like many are destined either for professional tryouts or late-summer deals after injuries strike.

So now we’ll get into our summer predictions. Before the start of the year we’ll be releasing a full season preview with projections for each club and the expected playoff teams, but first we’ll ask you to give us your take on how you believe each division will end up. Yesterday we looked at the Metropolitan division, a poll that was handily won by the Pittsburgh Penguins despite them not coming first in the Metro since 2013-14 season. The back-to-back Stanley Cup champs are being chosen by many to three-peat, even after saying goodbye to some former playoff stars like Chris Kunitz and Nick Bonino.

Today, we’ll move to the other Eastern Conference division and take a look at the Atlantic. Choose who you think will win the division this season, and make sure to leave your full prediction for the division standings in the comments. As a proxy for the overall standings, we’ll be sure to publish these results alongside our own PHR rankings in September.

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Still Waiting For Nikita Zadorov Announcement

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Colorado Avalanche fans have been waiting patiently since the end of the season for news surrounding restricted free agent Nikita Zadorov. Back in July he told Sport-Express in Russia that he’d play for CSKA if he couldn’t come to an agreement with the Avalanche, as the KHL team had already offered him a lucrative contract. After a season which he flashed the potential that made him a first-round pick and centerpiece for Ryan O’Reilly, the Avalanche couldn’t accept his departure.

Earlier this month it was reported that the two sides were closing in on a two-year deal, and Alexey Schevchenko—the same reporter who conducted the interview referenced above—even went so far as to say that a deal was done. The contract would reportedly pay Zadorov $2MM per season. That number has filtered throughout the rumor mill, but has still yet to be confirmed by a North American source or announced by the team.

It does sound like Zadorov will be returning, and for good reason. The Avalanche simply can’t be as historically bad as they were last season, and the big Russian defender can be a part of the turnaround. In 56 games last season he averaged more than 19 minutes a night, and established himself as one of the most devastating open-ice checkers in the league. Now 22, Zadorov could easily take another step forward this season and start to put himself on the map among up-and-coming defensemen in the league. For a team like Colorado who is committed to a rebuild, he’ll be positioned as a key cog going forward.

Early Notes: Gretzky, Heatley, Stanley

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Twenty-nine years ago today Wayne Gretzky was traded from the Edmonton Oilers to the Los Angeles Kings in a deal that would change the fate of hockey in Southern California. All of a sudden the greatest player of all time was playing in a non-traditional hockey market. NHL.com’s Lisa Dillman chronicles the trade, and how Gretzky was feeling at the time.

When looking back at the deal, many fans remember the $15MM price tag paid by the Kings and equate the deal to a purchase from the less-wealthy Oilers franchise. But there were other parts that should be remembered. Los Angeles also traded Jimmy Carson, a 20-year old former second-overall pick who was coming off a 55-goal, 107-point season, Martin Gelinas the seventh-overall pick from just a few months earlier, and three additional first-round picks. That’s in addition to the $15MM, while the Oilers also sent Marty McSorley and Mike Krushelnyski south along with Gretzky. It was lopsided for sure because of Gretzky’s greatness, but the return shouldn’t be minimized. It was likely the biggest trade that will ever happen in the NHL.

  • According to CTV News in Calgary, former NHL star Dany Heatley has won a court decision over his former agent for losing a large part of his career earnings, given a judgement of just over $6.5MM. Apparently Heatley won a similar court case in the past and was never paid, so it is still to be seen whether he actually gets it. Chris Phillips, Heatley’s former Ottawa Senators teammate who used the same agent also sued in the past and was given a judgement of over $7MM, though was only paid a fraction of the settlement.
  • Winnipeg Jets’ prospect Logan Stanley was traded from the Windsor Spitfires to the Kitchener Rangers yesterday for a package of picks. The huge defender was selected 18th-overall in 2016 and won a Memorial Cup after coming back from injury just in time to compete in the tournament this spring. Windsor, with the hosting duties behind them and several players graduating to the NHL will look to rebuild their franchise and try to time a championship winning group a few years down the line.
  • The Washington Capitals will be playing their home games in the Capital One Center this season, as Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post reports. The Verizon Center’s naming rights were up at the end of 2018, but will change a year early.

Snapshots: Olczyk, Giroux, Rielly

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The hockey world received sad news today, as long-time NBC broadcaster, former coach and player Eddie Olczyk was diagnosed with colon cancer. Olcyzk is perhaps best known for his even-handed color commentary and general good standing league wide. Olczyk played over 1000 NHL contests, splitting time between Chicago, Toronto, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg, and Los Angeles. His short foray into the coaching world for the Penguins in 2003-04 and 2005-06 was relatively unsuccessful, but Olczyk found a home as a broadcaster, first for his local Comcast SportsNet Chicago before taking on a more national role. His legacy within the Blackhawks fanbase is that of a fair, enthusiastic lover of the sport, who provides solid and humor-filled insight.

Olczyk had a tumor removed successfully but still needs to undergo chemotherapy. Olczyk stated that he hopes to return to the broadcast booth for the upcoming season, and hockey fans everywhere will be hoping and praying for his quick recovery.

  • Claude Giroux reached out to Sporting News Canada’s Pam Murray, revealing in an article his thoughts going forward as captain of the Flyers. Essentially, the team couldn’t find a proper groove and “lots of things didn’t go (their) way”. The Flyers had a massive win-streak that was rendered irrelevant by long stretches of non-productivity and defensive inconsistency. Giroux mentioned how excited he is to work with the young prospects making the leap this season, not least among them Nolan Patrick. Philadelphia is a difficult city to play hockey in, and missing the playoffs can apply pressure to even the most savvy of veteran leaders. Giroux, especially with his massive caphit, will be under the limelight if things start to go sour again.
  •  Although it may go as no surprise, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ off-season acquisition of Ron Hainsey was apparently to help guide along Morgan Rielly. Talking to NHL.com’s Dave McCarthy, coach Mike Babcock stated that “finding a partner” for Rielly was always the team’s intention this summer. Hainsey is no doubt a useful veteran player, but taking top minutes may be more than he can handle at this stage of his career. His skating has noticeably slowed and his mediocre puck-moving ability was exploited often in Pittsburgh. A restful off-season may go a long way toward allowing him to handle the load of 20+ minutes once again, but his 39.7% Corsi For in the Penguins’ run certainly didn’t inspire many onlookers. He’ll need to clean up the turnovers and simplify his game a great deal, which, with Rielly on his left, might be feasible.

Mutual Terminations And Their Value To Players

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Over the last three seasons in particular, we’ve seen a number of so-called “mutual terminations”. In fact, we’ve seen more mutual terminations over this period than buyouts. They are just as they sound – when a player and team decide their prior arrangement is no longer agreeable, the teams cut ties entirely. The benefit for the team is that the cap hit of the player is cancelled out entirely. The benefit for the player is that they then have the opportunity to seek employment with a different franchise or a different league. Unfortunately for players, such an agreement may not be totally in their favor.

In the 2016-17 season, there were exactly 10 mutual terminations. Most of them flew under the radar, even for the most avid of hockey fans. The players concerned were David Rundblad (Chicago), Ben Johnson (New Jersey), Mason Raymond (Anaheim), Calle Andersson (New York Rangers), Nicklas Grossmann (Calgary), Axel Blomqvist (Winnipeg), Matt Carle (Nashville), Matia Marcantuoni (Arizona), Gregory Campbell (Columbus), and Jonathan-Ismael Diaby (Nashville). Not a single one of these players competed in another NHL game last season. That’s a success rate of exactly 0% on the player end. Regardless of one’s opinions of these particular players’ hockey abilities, the likelihood of them seeing game action prior to termination was much higher. (It should be noted that Carle announced his retirement, while Johnson was incarcerated, so it’s more like 0-for-8)

Rundblad was forced to return to the Swiss-A League, where he found moderate success with Zurich HC. Andersson also made a return appearance in the Swiss League, playing 26 games as a depth forward. Grossman played 28 games in the Swedish Hockey League with the lowly Orebro, while Blomqvist played only 7 contests for the SHL’s Sodertalje. Campbell, luckily, was employed by the Jackets as a player development coach. Raymond was an interesting case, as he refused to report to the San Diego Gulls due to family issues, which made the arrangement less “mutual” than the others. He signed a contract with SC Bern in June.

Each of these players struggled to find meaningful employment elsewhere while two didn’t find any whatsoever (Marcantuoni & Diaby). It’s understandable as to why a player would want to stay in game action, considering that every player subject to mutual termination is necessarily under the age of 35. Maintaining the physical standards of a pro hockey player is difficult, and being benched for the majority of a season can be crippling to future success. Still, there are solid hockey players on this list who saw marginal benefits from negating the remainder of their contracts. Seven contests for Sodertalje doesn’t really qualify as meaningful. And the story from past seasons is much the same. If you look through the 2015-16 list, most are essentially out of hockey at this point. None have played over 40 contests in a season for a serious foreign league outside of Petr Zamorsky for the SHL. Most terminated players don’t even see over 20 games total after this arrangement.

In the negotiations for a new CBA, this sort of maneuvering might become an issue of contention. Management loves this loophole, as it allows cap and total contract space with no repercussions to the organization. Still, there is an element of strong-arming to this arrangement, one in which the player rarely, if ever, comes out on top. Unless the player has a prior arrangement already in place, it’s a risky proposition. It will be interesting to see how often this strategy will be utilized in 2017-18.

Senators Passed Up Chance To Unload Ryan

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One of the few players who was heavily anticipated to become a Vegas Golden Knight did not – Bobby Ryan. Despite an above-average playoff performance in the Senators’ heartbreaking Conference Final run, Ryan has vastly under-performed relative to his contract. Instead of coordinating a deal to unload that contract to Vegas, they instead lost Marc Methot, perhaps the second best defenseman on the team in that Cinderella story. Methot’s contract was not perfect, to be sure, but Ryan’s deal still looms large over the team for years.

It should be noted that Ryan has been a consistent 50+ point producer prior to this season, where he tallied only 25 through 62 contests. He’s been on pace for over 50 every year since he was a rookie. That said, his fall from grace in 2016-17was concerning and dramatic. His puck control seriously declined, his decision making faltered, and his production took a nosedive. With only 12 goals, and coming off a hot post-season, the time was ripe for GM Pierre Dorion to take advantage of Vegas’ unique situation and rid himself of a bad contract. Earning $7.25 MM AAV for the next five seasons, Ryan is the 36th highest paid forward in the league, and second-highest on the payroll behind Erik Karlsson.

For those who believe such an arrangement could not have been worked out, merely look at some of the contracts Vegas did take on. The essentially retired David Clarkson’s $5.25 MM for the next 3 seasons was shipped out at the price of a first and a 2020 second. The perennially concussed Mikhail Grabovski was dealt for a similar package, which also protected some of the Islanders’ players. Vegas also didn’t shy away from taking veteran players with value – they selected James Neal (29 years old) from Nashville as well as David Perron from the Blues (29 years old). Certainly, with a little encouragement, George McPhee might have entertained the possibility of Ryan as a Knight. The price may have been steep, but Karlsson is in the prime of his career, while many players are looking for raises in the immediate future. Clearing Ryan’s albatross off the books may have gone a long way towards building toward a consistent contender.

Ultimately, Dorion decided against unloading a bloated contract in hopes that Ryan’s post-season revival was no mirage. With the UFA crop available, it’s difficult to blame the management for doubling down on the struggling winger. Five roster players will be UFA after this season, including Craig Anderson and Kyle Turris, while Mark Stone (RFA) has earned a raise. Karlsson will then be due a raise for 2019-20, as will five other forwards. The team will need to rely upon cost-effective ELC players and bargain contracts to continue holding pace with the rest of the Atlantic division. Only time will tell whether the Ryan decision was the correct one.

Oft-Injured Teams Likely To Rebound In 2017-18

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Every year, some teams invariably get the short straw when it comes to injury. The Washington Capitals, notably, were the healthiest team in the league, and ended up winning the Presidents’ Trophy. That said, organizational depth is absolutely vital, as the Penguins survived well enough to repeat championships, even though they were bottom-5 in man games lost. Ultimately, there are a few franchises that are merely anticipating a restart in 2017-18, in hopes of entirely forgetting the abuses of last season. These three teams are those which suffered the worst, and have a solid chance to rebound in the upcoming campaign.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning lost Steven Stamkos for the majority of the season after he was diagnosed with a torn meniscus in November. He missed an astounding total of 65 games. Ryan Callahan was also lost for the majority of the year, losing 64 games of action to a lower-body injury. After that, the onslaught of injuries kept hammering away. Nikita Kucherov only lost 8 games, but was felled on three separate occasions. Ondrej Palat missed only 9 games as well, but his presence was sorely missed when absent. Cedric Paquette lost 23 games, while Tyler Johnson missed 16. It seemed that no one was safe on Tampa’s squad more man-games than an other teams when you factor in essentially retired players.

Tampa will look to remain healthy this season, after an incredibly unlucky venture in 2016-17. They have the depth to endure losses, but the sheer carnage last season was too catastrophic to overcome. Still, they finished only one point out of the final wild card spot. They could easily have squeaked into the playoffs and inflicted serious damage. This year, as long as the fates turn their way, they should be right back in the competitive mix.

Winnipeg Jets

Tyler Myers lost out on the bulk of the season, only playing in 11 contests. As a big component of the team’s defense, he will need to be back to peak performance if the Jets hope to stop some of the bleeding in their own end of the ice. Center Bryan Little lost 23 games to a lower-body injury, while Shawn Matthias missed 37 contests to an upper-body ailment. Not a single player survived the entire year without succumbing to some sort of injury or sickness, and the team as a whole struggled to find a consistent groove with so many bodies filling in and falling out.

The Jets need consistent goaltending and less obnoxiously aggressive defense if they hope to reach the post-season again. That said, simply remaining healthy will go a long way in transforming Winnipeg into a dangerous team. Mark Scheifele was absolutely dominant last season, and with reliable depth behind him, only good results lie ahead. The Central is also slightly less intimidating this year, even with Dallas making as many transactions as they did. Nashville and Chicago both took steps backward, the Blues remained relatively the same, while the Wild made lateral moves.

Vancouver Canucks

Vancouver will have a tough time entering the playoff conversation. In the relatively weak Pacific however, anything can happen. The Sedin twins are another year older, and GM Jim Benning hasn’t acquired any game-breakers in the off-season (Michael Del Zotto doesn’t count). Still, when a team loses over 300 man-games to injury in a year, things should theoretically improve the following year. Admittedly, some of their most heavily injured players were nominal players, like Derek Dorsett (68 lost) and Anton Rodin (79 lost). Still, they missed the presence of multiple depth players at a time and ultimately relied too heavily upon call-ups to crawl through the year. Jannik Hansen (39 lost), Chris Tanev (29 lost), and Erik Gudbranson (52 lost) are far from world-beaters, but on a team as thin at both offense and defense as the Canucks, their losses were unsustainable.

It remains to be seen how much of an impact general health will play for the Canucks. They still need their top players to find consistent production, and their younger players (Bo Horvat, Sven Baertschi) must continue to progress. That said, with a little luck, they might find themselves somewhere near the mix yet again. With new coach Travis Green and a fresh beginning, perhaps there is one more Wild Card berth left in a team that has been prolonging their inevitable full-on rebuild.

Third-Year Breakout Candidates

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In the NFL, there is a prevailing theory that it takes wide receivers a few years to really establish themselves as forces in the league. Their third year is pointed at as a potential “breakout” period, when they can take a substantial step forward after learning how to better control their bodies and become accustomed to the league. While every year there are impact rookies in the NHL, there are still those that follow this same path. Despite getting plenty of playing time, they just don’t seem to put it together until that third season.

David PastrnakIn 2016-17 we had plenty of examples of a player taking a huge step forward in his third NHL season. Many follow a normal development path like Leon Draisaitl, jumping from nine points in limited action, to 51 in his sophomore year and 77 in his third and best season so far. David Pastrnak—who remains unsigned by the Boston Bruins—on the other hand may be the best example of a third-year breakout. He registered 27 and 26 points in his first two seasons before finding another level last year to score 70 points. His jump of 54 points was one of the biggest in the league, and it came in just 75 games.

Jonathan Drouin came back from his troubled 2014-15 season to post a career-high 53 points last year in his third go-round, finally coming through on his drool-worthy offensive potential with some real production. Viktor Arvidsson was finally given a full-time opportunity in his third season and jumped from 22 career points to 61 in a single season (though it’s hard to even call his first year a real season since he only got into six games).

This year there are plenty of candidates for a breakout. Players who though performing admirably haven’t quite reached their potential during the first two seasons of their NHL careers, and could take a considerable step forward this season.

Colton Parayko – St. Louis Blues

Normally a defenseman who has started his career with 68 points in 160 games would be seen as a glowing success and not a breakout candidate, but that’s just how high the ceiling is for Parayko. With Kevin Shattenkirk moved on to greener pastures, Parayko should have even more opportunity to prove himself as one of the league’s young superstars. There is ample room to improve on his career-high of 35 points, and it’s not out of the question that he will receive Norris trophy votes as soon as this season.

Remember Parayko was drafted back in 2012, and ended up going to the University of Alaska for three seasons before entering professional hockey. He’s now 24, armed with a huge contract extension and ready to make it clear that he should be considered among the top tier of defensemen.

Noah HanifinNoah Hanifin – Carolina Hurricanes

Hanifin has done everything the Hurricanes have asked of him, but still hasn’t come close to the rock solid top-pairing player that he flashed as a freshman in Boston College. Hanifin took over games in the college ranks, but has settled into a good-but-not-great role in Carolina. Sitting behind Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce and Justin Faulk on the depth chart, Hanifin could experience a similar breakout to Jacob Trouba if an injury forces him into a bigger role.

It’s interesting that fans have speculated on Hanifin being the odd man out in Carolina in trade scenarios for an upgrade at forward, even though his draft pedigree and early results should make him almost untouchable. He won’t turn 21 until January of next year and could easily find himself in the conversation as the Hurricanes’ best defenseman should he reach his immense ceiling.

Robby Fabbri – St. Louis Blues

Fabbri was well on his way to having a breakout season in his second year, playing at a near-50 point pace through 51 games. His season would be cut short in February when he suffered a knee injury, making 2017-18 one to watch for the young forward. In what should be an exceptional St. Louis offense, Fabbri is still sort of a wild card. Right now it looks like he may get to play with newcomer Brayden Schenn on the team’s second line, and in that spot he’ll hardly ever face the opponent’s best defensive group (they’ll be reserved for Vladimir Tarasenko and company).

Fabbri could easily find himself with a 60-point season this year, as long as the knee is back to 100% by the start of the year. Playing with offensive players like Schenn and Alex Steen will only help him work his magic in the attacking zone.

Nick Ritchie – Anaheim Ducks

Nick RitchiePower forwards often take a little more time to develop, and the Ducks are still waiting on Ritchie to take the next step. In 77 games last year he put up 28 points, which while respectable isn’t the top-end goal scoring numbers they’d hoped for when they drafted him 10th overall. That production though came in limited minutes, and if he’s given the opportunity the numbers are sure to follow.

Ritchie played just under 13 minutes a night last season, but saw that number drop even further after Anaheim acquired Patrick Eaves at the deadline. Eaves is back, but he’s also now 33-years old and could take a big step back next season. If powerplay time becomes available, Ritchie could have a breakout season on his hands.

Oliver Bjorkstrand – Columbus Blue Jackets

Like Arvidsson, you can barely call Bjorkstrand’s first two years with Columbus seasons. He’s played in 38 games over the past two years, spending most of the time in the AHL instead. Still, he has provided tantalizing results in the minor leagues and has 21 points in his limited NHL sample. Even if that rate continued it would be a 45 point season for the third-round pick, good enough to constitute a breakout in his third season. But with Bjorkstrand there is even more upside.

In the WHL, the Danish forward dominated the competition scoring 144 goals in 193 games and has elite hockey sense with the puck. His nose for the net and ability to slide into undefended areas would allow him to be a consistent NHL scoring threat if given the chance. There are a ton of weapons in the Blue Jackets forward group, but if he were to find some early camp chemistry with one of the stars Bjorkstrand could easily slide into a top-six option without much resistance.

(*There are many other players who could experience a third-year breakout, and some will be discussed in future articles. This is not meant to be a ranking of any kind.)

NHL Announces Preseason Schedule

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Hockey will return in just over a month. The NHL today announced their preseason schedule which starts with a game between the Vancouver Canucks and Los Angeles Kings on September 16th. That same match-up will play again in China just five days later, for the first NHL game ever played in the country.

The schedule includes 109 games overall, spread out over 16 days. The Canucks seem to be at the center of everything, as they’ll also host the Vegas Golden Knights’ first ever preseason game on September 17th. Vegas will also be part of the last game before the regular season, hosting the San Jose Sharks on October 1st.

The regular season kicks off three days later on October 4th, with four games including the Stanley Cup banner being raised in Pittsburgh when the Penguins take on the St. Louis Blues.

The full preseason schedule can be found below (all times EST):

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