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Archives for July 2017

Free Agent Profile: Johnny Oduya

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Johnny Oduya is a name that has fallen off most hockey fanatics’ radar this off-season, and perhaps there is good reason for that. Oduya is 35 years old and came off a brutal playoff performance in their sweep against Nashville. The league is certainly trending in the “what have you done for me lately” direction, so no one should be entirely shocked that he remains unclaimed this deep into July.

That said, it’s still conceivable that he has a bounce back year. For a bargain bin price, he’s worth taking a shot on. Although his dreadful 2016-17 outing had him finish with only 9 points and an uninspiring 46.8% Corsi For, he’d been above the 50% mark the prior 5 seasons. He can lo longer handle a ton of minutes, and he will need sheltering from top competition, as many bottom-pairing defensemen do. He only averaged 18:16 of ice-time through the year, but considering that 59.3% of his zone starts were in the defensive end, he managed to hold his own. As a veteran 6th or 7th defenseman, he may still have something to offer.

Potential Suitors

The Blackhawks are seemingly always looking to re-unite with names from their past glories, but the fit may not be one Stan Bowman is willing to try again. He looked sluggish and out of sorts, and got blown by on numerous occasion by the depth players of Nashville. That said, the team will likely need at least another defenseman on the roster, so it’s not impossible. But with Duncan Keith (34), Brent Seabrook (32), and Michal Rozsival (38) already making up half the defense, do they really want to get older still?

Oduya hasn’t been definitively linked to practically anyone. It’s quite possible he’s holding on to see what opens up as teams enter training camp. Teams like the Washington Capitals, Philadelphia Flyers, and Los Angeles Kings could use another 6/7, and would be on the hunt for a bargain. The New Jersey Devils of course completely lacking on the back-end, and might want a mentor for 22 year olds Mirco Mueller, Damon Severson, and Michael Kapla. In truth, a good 50% of the league that could afford to take a chance on him for a single season, but the question remains, who will?

Ultimately, we aren’t likely to hear much chatter on this front until the arbitration period has passed. Teams want to have their organizational contracts set in stone before offering a contract to what will ultimately amount to a stop-gap defender solution.

Projected Contract

Last month, we projected a one-year, $2.5MM deal for Oduya back with Chicago, but they certainly no longer have him in their plans. We had him ranked at a respectable 32nd in a weak UFA class, but even that may have been overestimating his remaining value around the league. Oduya will likely have to settle for a one-year deal to prove he still “has it”, and the monetary value of that contract will be far less. He could always decide to play in Europe, but at the bare minimum he’ll attract at PTO, much like Cody Franson. If he does sign before the end of summer, it will likely be for under $1 MM, quite the paycut from his 2016-17 AAV of $3.75 MM.

Free Agent Profile: The Goalie Market

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More than three weeks into free agency, there are still several big names available on the market. Among PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents, you can still find Thomas Vanek (#8), Jaromir Jagr (#13), Andrei Markov (#14), Drew Stafford (#21), Cody Franson (#22), and many more without NHL homes. What you can’t find is a single goalie on that list left unsigned. In fact, you would be hard pressed to find a single free agent goaltender that the casual hockey fan would recognize.

The following is list of available keepers who were on NHL contracts in 2016-17: Daniel Altshuller, Mantas Armalis, Sam Brittain, Mac Carruth, Ryan Faragher, Michael Garteig, Jonas Gunnarsson, Matt Hackett, Jake Paterson, Mackenzie Skapski, Colin Stevens, and Stephon Williams. Are none of those names standing out? They shouldn’t. Not one of those 13 players made a single NHL appearance last season and only Altshuller, Brittain, and Garteig even sat on an NHL bench. Of the group, only Hackett and Skapski have ever played in the NHL and neither one has suited up since 2014-15. The group leaves little to be desired.

This could explain why many other teams have decided to reach overseas for goalie depth this off-season, with the Nashville Predators bringing back Anders Lindback, the Minnesota Wild signing Niklas Svedberg, the Vegas Golden Knights signing Oscar Dansk, the Florida Panthers signing Harri Sateri and, most recently, the New York Rangers bringing in young Alexander Georgiev. Yet, even the foreign market is drying up. The top leagues in Sweden and Switzerland have nothing to offer net-needy NHL team, while the best remaining free agent goalies in the KHL and Finnish Liiga are 37-year-old Alexander Yeryomenko and 34-year-old Pekka Tuokkola respectively. Other KHL free agents like Riku Helenius, Drew MacIntyre, Justin Pogge, and Kevin Poulin are all former NHL wash-outs themselves who have done little to improve their stock overseas and don’t present much of an upgrade over many of the North American options.

So which keepers are the best of this rag-tag bunch? The short answer is that none are ready to make NHL starts any time soon. Every NHL free agent either spent time in the ECHL in 2016-17 or should have because of unsightly AHL numbers, whereas none of the KHL free agents were particularly impressive this past season either.

Poulin is the most likely of any to earn an NHL contract for next season, as he has more NHL experience than everyone else on this list put together – with just 50 appearances. The 27-year-old went back and forth between the New York Islanders, who drafted him in 2008, and their AHL affiliate, the Bridgeport Sound Tigers, from 2010 to 2015. In that time, Poulin had an 18-25-3 record with an .899 save percentage and 3.07 GAA. While it isn’t the best NHL stat line, it isn’t the worst either. Outside of the NHL, Poulin has always posted a save percentage of .909 or better, including a .909 exact and 2.66 GAA with Barys Astana of the KHL last year. For a team in need of a goalie, even just for AHL depth, Poulin isn’t a terrible option.

Hackett would be next on the list and also has the second-most NHL games played. Once considered the “goalie of the future” for the Minnesota Wild after a spectacular rookie season in 2011-12, the now 27-year-old’s career has gone in the opposite direction. Pedestrian play in the AHL and inconsistency in his NHL efforts took Hackett out of the running as an NHL starter, but he’s still been able to find work as a third-string backup after Minnesota with the Buffalo Sabres and Anaheim Ducks. Even after an AHL season where he was passed up on the depth chart, saw only seven games of action, and posted poor numbers, Hackett still seems like a safe bet to find a new deal somewhere.

Beyond Poulin and Hackett, a contract for any of the other free agent goalies would come as a surprise. At 23 years old, Paterson is the youngest of the free agents and has put up strong numbers in each of his first two pro seasons. However, those numbers have come in the ECHL rather than the AHL. Paterson’s junior numbers in the OHL aren’t spectacular, so the competition level of the ECHL may simply be where he’s best suited. Nevertheless, he has the most room to grow of anyone available. On the flip side, the 37-year-old Russian keeper Yeryomenko is by far the most talented goalie available statistically. The KHL veteran was arguably the best goalie in the league last year, posting a .950 save percentage and 1.29 GAA in 37 starts. There is no reason to think that Yeryomenko is eyeing a move overseas at this point in his career nor that he could adjust to the NHL’s pace of play at his age, but if he is open to it, he could be a low-risk gamble as a stop-gap veteran backup in the AHL for some team.

Potential Suitors

Luckily, most NHL teams are not in dire straits in net that they should have to be taking a long look at the current free agent market. Nearly every viable name has already been scooped up and few teams have a pressing need. However, it never hurts to have several fallback options in net, and even teams with three or four solid players can end up scooping up that one extra keeper as the off-season goes on.

The one team that really must make a move is the Columbus Blue Jackets. Yes, they have the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, Sergei Bobrovsky, and promising young backup Joonas Korpisalo, but after trading Anton Forsberg away this summer, the Blue Jackets are lacking in depth. The only other goalie under contract is Matiss Kivlenieks, who is entering his first pro season out of the USHL. Kivlenieks is probably not suited to even start at the AHL level yet, nevertheless be the next man up for Columbus. The Blue Jackets could stand to add two goalie even, though their need is great enough that they could be scouring the trade market instead for their third-stringer.

Even after replacing Ryan Miller with Anders Nilsson in free agency, the Vancouver Canucks could still use another goalie. Thatcher Demko is a stud prospect and ready to carry the bulk of AHL starts, and Richard Bachman is a good veteran AHL option capable of making an NHL spot start too. However, should Jacob Markstrom or Nilsson, both injury-prone and relatively new to their 2017-18 roles, struggle or be sidelined, Demko or possibly Bachman will be ready to go, but without much reliable backup depth in Utica. Vancouver could simply re-sign Garteig, who was in the system last year, but may want to go with a superior talent given the unproven nature of their top three goalies at the NHL level.

Expected Contract

It might be a stretch to assume that any of the goalies remaining on the free agent market, NHL or international, will sign an NHL deal this summer. If they do, it will surely be a one-year, two-way deal worth the minimum $650K or simply a minor league AHL deal. There’s not much left to offer on the market, but with some holes still in need of filling across the league, understanding the strengths and many, many weaknesses of the goalie market could help to make sense of any upcoming deals.

Rangers, Zibanejad Exchange Arbitration Numbers

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With the arbitration hearing for New York Rangers center Mika Zibanejad coming up this Tuesday, July 25th, the two sides have exchanged salary figures. According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, Zibanejad’s side is asking for $5.35MM, while the team is offering $4.1MM.

While there’s been no word thus far on the term either side is requesting, it is reasonable to assume that Zibanejad would like just a one-year award if the negotiations go all the way through the arbitration process. The first year in New York did not go as planned for the 24-year-old pivot, as injury limited him to just 56 games. While the swift Swede was still able to put up 37 points, he snapped his 20-goal season streak and was unable to show off much of his physical game, playing a much more careful style. Nevertheless, Zibanejad still displayed his scoring ability, with a career-high 0.66 points per game and an 11.8% shooting percentage, as well as his two-way ability with a +9 rating and career-best 52% face-off winning percentage. He also skated in 12 playoff games and looked impressive, registering nine points and a +4 rating in nearly 18 minutes of ice time per game.

The Rangers may have expected more from Zibanejad in year one, but when he was healthy he was everything they could ask for. The last thing that New York wants is a short-term deal that exposes Zibanejad to unrestricted free agency anytime soon. Having traded Derick Brassard to acquire Zibanejad just around this time last year, they want to make that deal count. Expect the Rangers to do what they can to lessen the annual average value of the deal based on injury concerns in 2016-17, but in the end do what it takes to secure a long-term deal. New York will likely be the side to budge, despite a strange first season together, and this contract will likely end up as a five or six year pact (or longer) worth somewhere around $4.75MM+ per year, similar to the deal Brassard himself signed with the Rangers back in 2014.

Nashville Predators Next Goal Is Locking Up Johansen

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The Nashville Predators got a major roadblock out of the way yesterday when they signed 24-year-old wing Viktor Arvidsson to a seven-year deal. The $29.75MM signing locks up another franchise cornerstone at a reasonable price. General manager David Poile has successfully worked out similar deals in the past that have locked up others like Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis. In fact those five cornerstones on a Stanley Cup finalist team, will only cost them a $20.5MM cap hit combined next season, tweets LNH.com’s Arpon Basu.

However, the work doesn’t end there, according to NBC Sports Cam Tucker, who says the team now must turn their attention to No. 1 center Ryan Johansen. The 24-year-old center had a big year for Nashville, putting up 14 goals and 61 points. If it hadn’t been for a thigh injury in the playoffs, he could have shown his value to the team even more, although he still played in 14 playoff games, putting up 13 points. Despite that injury, Johansen should get quite a raise from a year ago.

Johansen, who was acquired from the Columbus Blue Jackets in early 2016 for Seth Jones, signed a three-year bridge deal at $4MM per season while with Columbus. Now, he should be up for an even bigger deal. The Predators should have more than $14.5MM to spend (according to CapFriendly), so money shouldn’t be an issue for Poile.

New Jersey Devils Must Focus On Defense

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The New Jersey Devils team struggled on all aspects last season, so general manager Ray Shero concentrated the offseason on upgrading its offense and they did that successfully. They selected Nico Hischier with the first-overall pick in this year’s draft and expect him immediately contribute as a center. They traded with the capped-out Washington Capitals to acquire 26-year-old winger Marcus Johansson for a couple of draft picks. They even signed veteran Brian Boyle to add a little scoring punch on the back lines. And with some of their young players slowly emerging, the Devils offense looks to be heading in the right direction.

Not so much on defense. Their defense, which struggled on giving up shots last year, hasn’t changed at all. The team still has Andy Greene, Ben Lovejoy, Damon Severson and John Moore as their top-four defenders — the same guys who tied for sixth in most goals allowed (2.94) and finished 10th in shots allowed (31.4). With no changes on defense, don’t be shocked if those numbers don’t improve too much. To make matters worse, there is expected to be little improvement among these regulars as most of them are getting old. Greene is turning 34 and starting to slow down. Lovejoy, 33, struggled last year and was demoted off the top line. Moore had a career-high 12 goals, but struggles on defense. Only the 22-year-old Severson has future promise.

However, what options remain? According to CBS New York’s Steve Lichtenstein, Shero is “keenly aware” that the team needs to upgrade their blueline. With all their promising youth and development on offense, the team seems to have few defensive prospects at all.

Despite the team’s $19.4MM in available cap space, via CapFriendly, there isn’t much available on the free agent market. The team failed to bring over Kevin Shattenkirk at the onset of free agency. Their attempt failed as he instead inked a long-term deal with the rival Rangers. The best possibility remaining at this point would be Cody Franson, but according to Lichtenstein, he is not on Shero’s radar. Perhaps a trade can fix their defense. Vegas has too many defenders and one might be able to be had for cheap. One of them is former Devil Jonathon Merrill, who they lost to Vegas in the expansion draft, but how much of an improvement would he be if he was part of the problem in New Jersey last year. Hopefully, New Jersey has a plan.

Bruins Notes: Spooner, Possible FA Targets

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Although many arbitration cases have been settled early to avoid the hearings this offseason, the Boston Globe’s Fluto Shinzawa reports that it is unlikely that you’ll see the same in the case between restricted free agent Ryan Spooner and the Boston Bruins. While the two team’s numbers that were submitted to the arbitrator are not known, it is believed that the two sides are far apart. While Boston has a history of settling with their restricted free agents in advance of their arbitration hearings (they haven’t had one since Blake Wheeler in 2010) Shinzawa writes the Bruins will likely have to let the arbitrator come to a decision for them.

Spooner has been one of the team’s most valuable assets for the money he made. He signed a two-year, $1.9MM in 2015 and is now looking for a significant raise. Certainly the Bruins can argue his output decreased in the last year. In 2015-16, Spooner put up 13 goals and 36 assists for 49 points. However, those numbers went down last year as he finished with 11 goals and 28 assists. He was heavily shopped during the season this past year and had been under fire by previous coach Claude Julien. While he played somewhat better under interim and now current coach Bruce Cassidy, he disappeared in the playoffs. After four playoff games, Spooner was injured, but was still considered to be healthy enough to play. However, he was still replaced by Sean Kuraly and never got back into the lineup.

However, Spooner has numbers that go in his favor as well, according to Shinzawa. The 25-year-old center can argue that he is a valuable member of the power play, and had the second-most power play assists on the team. He produces 2.18 points in 60 minutes of all-situations play, which was higher than both David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron and the five-year veteran has spent very little time in the penalty box.

However, the advantage could easily end up in Spooner’s favor regardless if the arbitrator looks mainly at the numbers. The arbritrator will likely look at comparisons and it might be hard to ignore the two-year, $6.85MM extension the team gave to former Bruin, Reilly Smith, before the end of the 2014-15 season. Smith put up 33 goals and 58 assists for 91 points in those two years. That’s just three more points than Spooner, who had 88 points over the past two years. So, he could easily ask for $3MM per year. No matter what, that’s a substantial raise for a player who only made $950,000 last season.

  • Joe Haggerty of CSNNE listed several free agent options for the Bruins, who have been quiet this offseason. While the team likely hasn’t made a move since the team is loaded with a combination of veteran and young talent, he suggests a quiet pickup could be key for the Bruins. Among the top on his list are: former Colorado defenseman Eric Gelinas, 40-year-old veteran Jarome Iginla who bought a house in the Boston area, 45-year-old Jaromir Jagr, former Sabres captain Brian Gionta and goal-scoring veteran Thomas Vanek.

Too Many Defenders Will Force New York Rangers Into A Move

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The New York Rangers’ main goal this offseason was to bulk up its defense, which failed them late last season, but the team may have gone too far. After signing Kevin Shattenkirk, re-signing Brendan Smith and trading for youngster Anthony DeAngelo, suddenly the team is overloaded with blueliners. While a team may envision six full-time defenders and a seventh for depth purposes on the team, the Rangers currently have nine legitimate players who belong on their roster and someone has to go.

According to New York Posts’ Larry Brooks, the team’s starting four consists of Ryan McDonagh and Brady Skjei on the left side and Shattenkirk and Smith on the right side. That leaves five players for the final three spots on the NHL roster, including veterans Marc Staal and Nick Holden, DeAngelo, KHL import Alexei Bereglazov and University of Minnesota-Duluth signee Neal Pionk. Brooks admits the team could potentially keep eight defensemen to start the season as forward Jesper Fast is expected to begin the season on injured reserve, but that wouldn’t last long. In the end, two players would have to find themselves with the Hartford Wolf Pack in the AHL or the team must get rid of someone.

The most obvious solution to the problem would be to have Staal and Holden man the third defensive line, despite the fact that those two played together on the second line and struggled mightily last season. If the team did that, nonetheless, the team could keep one of the remaining three as the seventh defenseman and send the other two to the AHL. The only problem is who? Brooks writes that Bereglazov has an out-clause that would allow him to go back to the KHL if he is sent to the AHL, so he is a likely candidate to remain with the Rangers as the seventh man at minimum. However, the team gave up a lot to get DeAngelo and they would likely prefer not to have him sit on the bench in New York or play meaningless minutes in Hartford. Pionk, is also believed to be NHL ready.

So, the most likely scenario would be to look into trading Holden or buying out the contract of Staal. Would the Rangers want to do that? They already bought out fellow veteran Dan Girardi earlier this year. Staal, unfortunately, still has $17.2MM remaining on his contract over the next four years. Although they would open up $3.57MM to their cap this year in a buyout, the team would have to spread it over the next eight years like they did for Girardi. That’s a long time to pay two players who will never play for your team. The Rangers might want to wait one more year before buying out Staal. Regardless, that decision is expected to be made before the end of this week.

That leaves Holden, who has been previously mentioned in trade rumors, but little has come out of them. He is the best candidate to be moved. The 30-year-old, who came over from the Colorado Avalanche for a fourth-round pick, had a great first half last year and is on a cheap deal with just one year remaining. However, it seems that the market has temporarily dried up as many teams want to wait and see what they have before making a deal, so any move is likely not to be made before the start of training camp.

Snapshots: Schmidt, Saad, Hossa

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The Vegas Golden Knights have had a busy off-season in the lead-up to their first NHL season, and Gary Lawless laid out some of what still lies ahead for the fledgling franchise. Most notably, the team has to sign RFA Nate Schmidt, the former Washington defenseman who showed great promise as a productive player. PHR’s Gavin Lee touched on the reportedly productive manner of the talks a few days back, but he is one of the more intriguing names left on the arbitration docket. Schmidt will likely be a pivotal piece of their defense for years, as the team resisted trading him away to teams desperate for defensive help, opting instead to move older names.

Schmidt shouldn’t be too expensive in arbitration, as he only has 43 points through 200 career games. Still, Vegas seems intent to lock him up on a longer deal, and considering that they’ve cleared their focus of other distractions, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a deal get done soon. If the parties come to an agreement, it would likely be above the $3 MM mark.

  • Sports Illustrated ran an interesting piece highlighting the Blackhawks’ strategy of re-acquiring old players. Brandon Saad in particular sounds thrilled to be back in Chicago with Coach Joel Quenneville. Saad had two 53-point seasons in Columbus, but at only 24, he still has room to improve. It sounds like the plan is to re-unite him with captain Jonathan Toews, to try to spark the captain with a familiar linemate. Toews ended the season with a respectable 21 goals and 58 points, but struggled mightily to score for long stretches of time before a stellar home stretch. Saad will have big shoes to fill to replace the incredibly dynamic Artemi Panarin, however, and Patrick Kane’s line will likely see a huge hit in production in order to achieve greater balance in the lineup.
  • After the announcement that Marian Hossa is indefinitely sidelined due to a degenerate skin disorder, Blackhawks players unsurprisingly see the situation as “heartbreaking”. Hossa will not skate in 2017-18 due his medical need to discontinue NHL play. Hossa has a solid case for the Hall of Fame when he decides to retire, and being an important part of three Cup-winning teams, his loss is hard to calculate prior to the start of the season. Saad’s return may help fill some of that void, especially with Toews, but his production still will be near impossible to replace internally. More than that, however, he was arguably Blackhawks’ best defensive forward, backchecking consistently and with purpose. It will be interesting to see how the stretched-thin defense, minus Niklas Hjalmarsson, copes with one less Selke-caliber forward assisting their efforts.

Arbitration Breakdown: Brian Dumoulin

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With the reports of a huge financial gap between the two parties, it seems quite likely that Brian Dumoulin will reach his arbitration date. Whether the team can hammer out a deal before needing to accept that decision remains to be seen. They are still far apart in terms of value according to Elliotte Friedman, as the team only offered $1.95 MM compared to his agent’s number of $4.35 MM. Dumoulin has been a mainstay in Pittsburgh for their two Stanley Cup runs, but he has a difficult quantitative case to make to earn the money he is seeking.

The Numbers

Dumoulin was huge in the absence of Kris Letang. When the Penguins’ top defender was again sidelined to injury, Dumoulin’s ice-time skyrocketed to first-pairing usage. He finished the season with an average ice time of 20:33, but often saw far more down the stretch. In the playoffs, he averaged 21:59. Those are the numbers of an upper echelon second-pairing defenseman, but when you consider that he almost never sees powerplay time, and the defensive situations he is trusted in, he’s a borderline top-pairing player.

Dumoulin isn’t an offensive force in any regard. He’s only tallied 33 points through his 163 regular season games played, and 3 of his 5 career goals come from post-season action. Still, he can move the puck with relative efficiency and can be relied on to tally a little under 20 assists a season.

Dumoulin faces tough quality-of-competition, and that will be his biggest argument for the compensation he is seeking. However, his Corsi and Fenwick, the most utilized advanced statistics, don’t show improvement for the player last year. When these stats are taken without context, Dumoulin’s 2016-17 playoffs was his worst outing to date. He had a brutal 41.2% Corsi For through 25 post-season contests, down from his 2015-16 run’s 52.8%. His regular season totals showed a less drastic ’decline’, but the tougher minutes and far greater shots allowed team-wide brought his advanced statistics back down to merely average. He has shots blocked (99) and penalty killing prowess to turn to, but those are difficult figures to primarily base a case for a raise upon.

Potential Comparables

Here are some comparable players and their contracts.

Travis Hamonic (Calgary) – Although it may seem an odd comparison to some, the underlying numbers for these players aren’t dissimilar. Both have never broken 5 goals in a season and neither scores a particularly impressive amount of points. They are physical without being intimaditing and can skate well enough to survive in today’s NHL. They both block shots with consistency and contribute over 20 minutes of icetime a night. Hamonic signed his long-term deal worth $3.86 MM all the way back in 2013, which was a bit of an overpayment at the time in hopes of keeping the AAV down as he progressed. This seems a little under what most players with the skillset are looking for in 2017, but it’s an interesting parallel.

Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders) – Dumoulin’s contract will be a bit of a barometer for the Isles’ de Haan, as it will show the direction the arbiters are leaning on not-so-flashy defenders. As the only other RFA defenseman other than Vegas’ Nate Schmidt likely to earn more than $2 MM, de Haan and the Islanders will be watching the outcome of this case to determine who has greater leverage. De Haan still has great upside, but has played in a far more sheltered role on a deep defense.

Cody Ceci (Ottawa) – Ceci is not considered to be quite the asset that Dumoulin is, but seeing as his contract was awarded merely a year ago, this sort of bargain is what the Penguins are likely aiming toward. Ceci signed a two-year deal worth only $2.8 MM a season, after a 10 goal, 26 point season where he averaged nearly 19 minutes a night. Dumoulin has never seen that kind of production, but up until last season comparatively played against greater competition. Ceci is due for another arbitration hearing at the conclusion of the 2017-18 campaign, as his past contract was a sort of bridge deal.

Jacob Trouba (Winnipeg) – Again, another bargain for a defenseman that was handed out last season. Trouba’s negotiations dragged on into the regular season, before he finally accepted a two-year agreement, with the first year at $3.31 MM and the second year at $2.81 MM. Trouba is much more offensive than Dumoulin, but has generally seen more icetime and a similar difficulty of competition. Just like the Penguins, there was a large degree of disagreement in the financial value of the player between the organization and the agent. Dumoulin has championship pedigree to tout at his hearing, however, whereas Trouba was largely banking on his potential as a former first-rounder.

Projection

Dumoulin is an interesting case because he is undoubtedly an integral piece of the Pittsburgh blueline, but has little outside of truly advanced statistics to prove his case. How much will their championship runs inflate his value? How much is a stay-at-home defender worth, especially when his possession numbers have taken a hit?

Ultimately, if Dumoulin were a UFA rather than a RFA, he’d easily attract contract offers around $5 MM. As an RFA however, his predecessors haven’t seen a whole lot of success in proving their case. Shots blocked and plus minus are nice, but considering the trend of the league, they are not going to benefit his standing all that much. A lot of Dumoulin’s value is hard to quantify, and there’s the very real possibility that his bargaining position suffers as a result. Ultimately, his exposure in two long playoff runs will bring his value back to a fairer mark, and he will earn far more than the team’s ask of $1.9 MM. Somewhere in the range of $3 MM seems the likely award if the arbitration decision is actually needed. However, it’s unlikely that the parties don’t come to a longer-term agreement before that time. The Penguins need to lock him down as part of their defense, and a multi-year contract at around $4 MM is probable. GM Jim Rutherford will likely posture til the last conceivable minute, but his internal value is far too great to risk him walking in summer free agency in the next two years.

Viktor Arvidsson Signs 7-Year Extension With Nashville

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First reported byElliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, and then confirmed by Adam Vingan of the Tenessean, Nashville has secured a long-term deal to lock up their restricted free agent Viktor Arvidsson, forgoing the need for an arbitrator’s ruling. The crafty forward’s contract is good for 7 seasons, at an AAV of only $4.25 MM.

Arvidsson’s arbitration hearing took place earlier today, and the figures that were being thrown out earlier nearly assured that Nashville was bound to get a solid deal. Arvidsson asked for only one year at $4.5 MM whereas the team opted for two years at a mere $2.75 MM. Arvidsson was the team’s leading goal scorer, and one of the biggest surprises of the season. His offensive explosion helped carry the team to the Stanley Cup Final, and at only 24 should be a huge part of the team’s future for a long time. His advanced statistics, in addition to his 30+ goal season, really make the player attractive league-wide. His 55 % Corsi For puts him in elite company among  top-six wingers facing similar level of competition.

Getting a 61-point winger on a cost-controlled contract for the next 7 years is truly impressive work for GM David Poile. It should be kept in mind that there is a small element of risk here, as this was a total breakout season after a mediocre first pro year which saw him score only 16 points through 56 games. if Arvidsson can maintain anywhere near last season’s level of productivity, though, he will be incredibly cost-effective. His remarkable progression basically made James Neal expendable in the expansion draft, and now it seems that Poile is confident enough to lock the player down for the foreseeable future. At only 5’9, the player has faced doubters who question his long-term value, but he is now unquestionably a core piece in Tennessee.

When taken in reference another of this year’s RFAs, Tomas Tatar was awarded earlier today with a deal worth $5.3 MM AAV. Granted, Tatar had three consecutive 50+ point seasons which led to that figure. Arvidsson may only continue to progress, securing himself as a truly elite winger. By extending Arvidsson for such a long period, Nashville managed to bring a potentially more productive player than Tatar in at a figure far less cumbersome.

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