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No Deal In Place Between Ottawa, Vegas

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Both Pierre LeBrun of TSN and Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia believe as of the end of yesterday the Ottawa Senators did not have a deal in place with the Vegas Golden Knights. From Vegas GM George McPhee’s own mouth came the idea that they wouldn’t talk trade after last night, meaning Marc Methot and others will indeed be left exposed in the expansion draft.

In our recent mock expansion draft, our staff picked Methot from the Senators though not unanimously. Bobby Ryan received two votes and a lot more support from the PHR community, and the Senators would probably be happy if he was the selection over Methot. Ryan’s contract will pay him $7.25MM for the next five seasons, and similar to the situation with Dion Phaneuf, the Senators have to believe his price tag will be enough to keep him out of the Golden Knights dressing room. There are other options on defense, with Chris Wideman, Mark Borowiecki and Fredrik Claesson all going unprotected. While those three all have some value, Methot could move into a leadership role with the Golden Knights or could be a top trade candidate as his contract comes to an end in the summer of 2018.

If it is Methot that heads to the strip, the Senators will need to find another player to ride shotgun with Erik Karlsson for next season. Claesson seems to be the only real option for that for the time being, as Borowiecki plays a much different game and Phaneuf has found a chemistry with Cody Ceci on the second pair. Top prospect Thomas Chabot should make an impact eventually, but plays the same side as Karlsson.

Morning Notes: Dahlin, NWHL, Weal

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Rasmus Dahlin is the early favorite to go first-overall in the 2018 NHL Entry draft, and he’s about to skip another step in his outstanding young hockey career. According to Uffe Bodin of Hockeysverige, the 17-year old Swedish defenseman will skip the Ivan Hlinka U18 tournament and instead join team Sweden at the U20 tournament. Dahlin played last year in the Hlinka and the World Junior Championship, and will be all over the prospect circuit again this year as he tries to clinch that top spot.

A prototypical two-way defenseman, Dahlin has the size, physicality and offensive upside that makes him a dream for whichever team gets the chance to choose him next season. Likely battling with Andrei Svechnikov for the top spot, Dahlin should be seen with franchise-altering upside. He’ll be tracked carefully for the next year.

  • The NWHL has reached a streaming agreement with Twitter to show select games next season, bringing the women’s league to the forefront for the first time. Their games have previously been available to stream on the internet, but they’ll obviously be on a much bigger platform with Twitter for the next season. Last year the Buffalo Beauts took home the Isobel Cup, and just re-signed Corinne Buie the only woman to have won the Cup both years of the league’s existence. She seems to bring victory with her wherever she goes, winning a Clarkson Cup in her last season in the CWHL as well.
  • Tim Panaccio of CSN reports that agent J.P. Barry has spoken to Vegas about all the free agents he represents, mentioning Jordan Weal in particular. Weal is a Group VI unrestricted free agent this summer, and though there have been contract talks between his camp and the Flyers to try and keep him around, he’s unprotected and could easily be a target of the Golden Knights in the free agency period. After playing well down the stretch with the Flyers and putting up another outstanding AHL season, Weal is determined to make an impact at the NHL level next season.

Joel Vermin Signs In Switzerland

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Though it was unlikely he’d be brought back to the Tampa Bay Lightning, Joel Vermin has put the matter to bed by signing a five-year contract with Lausanne HC of the Swiss NLA. Vermin was set to become a Group VI unrestricted free agent this summer, due to playing just 24 NHL games over more than three professional seasons in North America.

Vermin, 25, was selected in the seventh round of the 2013 draft after a breakout campaign in Switzerland. Scoring 35 points in 47 games he would be selected as a 21-year old after passing through the draft several times. It would be tough for him to repeat that both in the NLA or the AHL after coming over to North America, until this year. In 46 games for the Syracuse Crunch, Vermin scored 32 games and would help them get all the way to the Calder Cup Final as one of their best forwards. In his 18 games with the Lightning, he’d contribute three points and generally be used as an insurance policy, bouncing up and down between leagues regularly.

The undersized forward has a lot of offensive skill, but disappears at times on the ice. He did represent a depth option for an NHL team next year, but will instead sign the long-term deal in his home country and gain some sort of security. If his career progresses, perhaps we’ll be talking about him as a potential free agent at age-30, but that is still a long way away. Instead, we’ll likely see him as part of the Switzerland team at international events throughout the next few years.

Snapshots: Methot, Karlsson, Marchessault

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The Ottawa Senators were put in a rough predicament when Dion Phaneuf turned down the team’s request to waive his no-trade clause. The organization is very high on Cody Ceci, and considering the depth of forwards they needed to protect, they were forced to expose Marc Methot. Many mock drafts have the veteran defender headed to Vegas, including our own. Some have even contemplated whether Methot could find himself in a captaincy position in Nevada. Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun explains how difficult a decision that was for Pierre Dorion and his staff, and how they tried to trade Phaneuf up until the last minute. Ottawa could theoretically try to bribe Vegas with the #28 pick, but considering that the team only has 4 picks overall, that seems unlikely. The more probable scenario is that Ottawa merely takes the blow and moves on.

  • The Blue Jackets truly want to hang onto their youngest talents, according to Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch. They are supposedly surrendering their 1st round selection to Vegas in order to keep Josh Anderson and Joonas Korpisalo. What makes nearly no sense is the apparent fact that this deal also warns the Knights off of veteran defenseman Jack Johnson. Johnson is an average defender, and with the rise of Zach Werenski and others he doesn’t seem to be a pivotal piece any longer. Vegas will probably choose William Karlsson or Ryan Murray as low-risk claims and run away happy from this deal. The valuation of a first-rounder is probably the lowest in ages, and the anxiety surrounding the protection lists has seemingly reduced their value even further.
  • Harvey Fialkov of the Sun Sentinel has Jonathan Marchessault headed to Vegas, based on the reports he’s been hearing. Defenders Jason Demers and young forward Reilly Smith are also available as high-value options for the Knights. According to Marchessault himself in an interview on TVA Sports, Tallon wasn’t able to negotiate a protection deal with Vegas. He was certainly being shopped in the lead up to Sunday. The entire Florida protection list was confusing, but Marchessault’s exposure was a truly unforced error by GM Dale Tallon. The 30-goal scorer will almost certainly find a home in Vegas’ top six, and the loss of this quality of player for absolutely nothing is perplexing the entire league. It’s certainly possible Marchessault has a down year after a career one, but asset management was completely blown in this case, and Vegas looks to reap that reward.

Islanders Likely To Move Grabovski And 15th Overall To Vegas

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Arthur Staple of Newsday has had to deal with multiple changes in story for the Islanders in the wake of their bizarre protection scheme released yesterday. It seems as though the rationale behind that suspect arrangement might finally be coming to light.

According to Staple, there is a complicated arrangement between Vegas and the Islanders to move Mikhail Grabovski to the team as well as steer Vegas’ pick by enticing them with a 1st-round selection (#15). The 33 year-old Grabovski has had massive concussion issues which kept him sidelined all last season. There’s a very real possibility that Grabovski never fully recovers to full form, so this would be a pure cap dump from the perspective of Vegas. He hasn’t played over 60 games in a season since 2012, and although he has posted decent offensive numbers, he’s never broken 60 points. His contract is worth $5 MM and only runs for another season. It remains to be seen what enticement Vegas will need in order to take on that contract.

The 1st round pick will be offered to Vegas in exchange for their staying away from certain players. As of now, it seems probable that this means the protection of Brock Nelson and/or Calvin de Haan, as other names have been floated with little confirmation. Nikolai Kulemin could be a possible intriguing draft target for Vegas – it would help the cap situation of Garth Snow even further and he has a tight connection with Grabovski. Kulemin is also only under contract for another season, at $4.19 MM.

Even in light of this this information, the whole arrangement seems wildly unnecessary and convoluted. However, If Vegas is willing to take on injured players contracts and cap dumps, as this deal would imply, it may keep the doors open for players such as Toronto’s Joffrey Lupul.  If there are any further details that break before Vegas’ selections, we at PHR will be on top of the development.

Entry Draft Notes: Avalanche, Stars, Flyers

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The Colorado Avalanche seem to be at least entertaining the possibility of moving down in the draft. According to Mike Chambers of the Denver Post, the team is split internally over whether to select the best player available or to draft a dynamic defenseman, which is their biggest organizational need at the moment. Finding the proper balance between these two philosophies is always difficult, and ultimately, the scouts are the ones who need to believe in a particular player. It is interesting to note that Chambers doesn’t see defender Cale Makar being taken that early in the draft, and that the Avalanche might be “stuck” selecting another forward. Makar actually got votes for the top pick from one of TSN’s analysts, and there are many who believe he will hop into the top-5. Bob McKenzie actually had him slotted in at that #4 spot, so it’s a bit difficult to determine what the Avalanche are thinking here.

If the organization did decide to trade to a lower pick, as director of amateur scouting Alan Hepple says is “a scenario…that they’re ready for”, it would likely include a piece that will provide more immediate help for the team. After a 48 point season, that could mean plugging a hole at practically any position. It’s a lot to consider, especially in light of the Matt Duchene trade rumors which haven’t stopped swirling since they began halfway through the season. This article will only keep more eyes peeled on the team from Denver headed into Friday’s draft.

  • The Flyers don’t seem to have the blinders on regarding their #2 selection, according to Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  They are spending most of their time and energy focusing on the later rounds. This makes sense for any team with a top selection, but especially for Philadelphia who will almost certainly draft whichever of Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier remains. The team is heavily invested in looking to load up on offensive talent, and with 11 picks in this year’s draft, they’ve set themselves up very well. One of the major criticisms for the team in recent drafting has been the over-emphasis on physicality and intangibles, while ignoring more dynamic offensive players. We’ll see if they can avoid that pitfall this weekend.
  • The Stars look to be leaning away from the big Windsor forward Gabriel Vilardi, according to Sean Shapiro of NHL.com. He also speculates that Dallas is particularly high on the aforementioned Makar and HIFK’s shifty Miro Heiskanen. They look to be focusing on defense for another draft, and with their top-end offense it’s no wonder why. They just exposed Cody Eakin to Vegas because of their glut of center-men, and even though Vilardi is an exceptional, versatile forward – he’s not a need. Both Makar and Heiskanen were ranked in the top-5 final rankings by McKenzie, so it’s difficult to see Dallas moving from their #3 position.

Should Vegas Corner Goalie Market?

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With the recent trade of Mike Smith to Calgary, the market for starting goaltenders is dwindling even further. An interesting dynamic for the Vegas Golden Knights as they choose their team will be whether they opt to select every quality goalie out there in order to flip them to other teams. There are quite a few available – Marc-Andre Fleury of Pittsburgh, Eddie Lack (and Cam Ward) of Carolina, Calvin Pickard of Colorado, Antti Raanta of New York, Petr Mrazek of Detroit, Roberto Luongo of Florida, Jaroslav Halak of the Islanders, Michal Neuvirth of Philadelphia, Peter Budaj of Tampa Bay, and Philipp Grubauer of Washington, with a few interesting prospects also exposed.  As we’ve seen in the past few seasons, dealing a goaltender for anything remotely resembling fair value can be an enormous challenge. The salary cap has really warped the value of a solid starting goaltender in a way that has not been totally beneficial to the players.

One down season and a tender’s value goes down quite heavily. The top ten goalies in the league always seem to find a home on the rare occasion they hit unrestricted free agency, but that has been a rare occurrence. Many might point to the 2010 Stanley Cup Final when they isolate a particular moment that the highly-paid goaltender became an oddity. In that Final, Michael Leighton, third-string for Philadelphia, faced off against the very pedestrian Antti Niemi, who was then  sacrificed for cap reasons. With the whole league watching, these teams ascended to hockey’s main stage with relative no names in the crease. While that moment may have been particularly damaging, the moment for me was the fiasco that was the Luongo and Cory Schneider trade saga in Vancouver, which lasted parts of 2 seasons. Then Canucks GM Mike Gillis had a terrible time finding a suitor for Luongo before finally being forced to ship Schneider off in the 2013 offseason for a 9th round pick. This too, was terrible value, considering that Schneider was one of the best young goalies in the league and coming off a scorching season where he had a .937 save percentage. This ordeal took place less than two years after Luongo had taken the team to its first Final since 1994. Granted, Luongo’s contract was considered a bit of an albatross, but it very publicly cemented the value of goaltenders on the trade market as minimal.

Looking forward to the present day, and the last two goaltenders have been traded for rather uninspiring returns. Arizona’s Smith only fetched a 3rd rounder, and Ben Bishop only netted a 4th from Dallas. GM George McPhee could end up hosting a goaltender buffet, with few paying customers. He would be wise to gauge the interest of other teams before deciding on their selections in net. They obviously want to draft a solid starter and a few young goaltenders as future cornerstones. They need to draft 3, and it’s difficult to envision them drafting less than 4 with the enticing names available out there. But if they decide to go into 5 or 6 goaltender territory, McPhee could manufacture a logjam that could be difficult to sort out. After all, only the WInnipeg Jets are truly desperate for a starting goaltender, and that’s assuming they don’t want one of Brian Elliott, Mike Condon, or another UFA to be their partner for Connor Hellebuyck. Philadelphia could be interested in a younger asset, and there are always teams who will desperately seek a starter mid-season when a keeper inevitably goes down to injury. That said, the market simply doesn’t favor the strategy of going all-in in net.

Snapshots: Schedule, Rapid City, Samsonov

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The full 2017-18 NHL schedule will be released on a special television production on the NHL Network on Thursday at 2pm CDT, and with it will likely come the end of any last hope for the league to go to the 2018 Winter Olympics. Anyone holding out hope that the league would change their staunch position and find common ground with the IIHF should drop it when the schedule is finalized and released.

Already, the league has announced that the All-Star game will be in Tampa Bay, and there will be regular season games played in Stockholm, Sweden. With several outdoor games also on the docket and the Vegas Golden Knights entering the league, it should be an interesting season to be sure.

  • The Rapid City Rush have come to an agreement with the Minnesota Wild to be their new ECHL affiliate, after the Quad City Mallards left the Minnesota organization to partner with the Golden Knights. The Rush were previously the affiliate of the Arizona Coyotes, but are much closer geographically to both St. Paul and Des Moines, where the Minnesota and Iowa Wild respectively play. Though there is (very) rarely movement from the ECHL to the NHL, Iowa and Rapid City will be working closely together to develop the young Wild prospects.
  • In speaking with Tarik El-Bashir of CSN, Washington Capitals Assistant General Manager Ross Mahoney said that he thinks prospect Ilya Samsonov is still a year away from coming to North America, and that they’re happy to wait for him. Samsonov was the first goalie off the board in 2014, and had an outstanding season with Magnitogorsk this year, registering a .936 save percentage in 27 games. It’s tough to find a better goaltending prospect than Samsonov, who has the size and mobility to be a starter in the NHL should he keep developing.

Arizona Coyotes Will Not Re-Sign Shane Doan

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Though Shane Doan still has some hope to play again next season, it won’t be for the only club he’s ever known. The long-time Coyotes captain who actually played one season for the Winnipeg Jets before they moved to the desert, will not be re-signed by the team. Pierre LeBrun of TSN reports that the Coyotes informed him of that decision over the weekend. "<strong

Doan has played parts of 21 seasons in the NHL, all for the same organization. In 1,540 games he registered 402 goals and 972 points while serving as captain for the last 13 seasons. In all that time, he only played in 55 playoff contests making it past the first round just once. He ranks in the top-100 all-time in goals, assists and points, but will have to finish his career somewhere else if he should want to play in 2017-18 or beyond.

LeBrun believes there are other teams with interest in the 40-year old winger, but it would be tough to pull on the sweater of another franchise after so many years. Doan has helped hockey in Arizona tremendously over the years, with players like Auston Matthews now showing the impact he had when he came here two decades ago. When the two met earlier this year in Arizona, Matthews had this to say about one of his childhood idols:

He’s been such an amazing not only hockey player for this team, but in the community. Obviously you see in the intermission breaks the people he touches and affects. It just shows you how much more it is to him not only to be a hockey player, but just an amazing person in the community.

Even if Doan does play a year or two somewhere else, he’ll be a part of the Coyotes franchise forever. The team issued this statement on the decision not to offer him a contract:

After serious consideration, we have decided to not offer Shane Doan a contract for the upcoming season. The time has come for us to move on and to focus on our young, talented group of players and our very bright future.

Shane deserves an enormous amount of credit for keeping the Coyotes in the Valley and for growing the game of hockey in Arizona. He is beloved by our fans, corporate partners and the media and has been a tremendous leader for us in the community, and a great role model for kids. We wish him and his family all the best in the future. He will be a member of our Pack forever.

According to Craig Morgan of AZ Sports, Oliver Ekman-Larsson will take over as captain of the Coyotes next season. Ekman-Larsson has been the best player on Arizona for a while now, and has two years left on his current contract. He will be just the fourth captain since becoming the Coyotes, following Doan (2003-17), Teppo Numminen (2001-03) and Keith Tkachuk (1996-2001).

PHR Mock Expansion Roster

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The protection lists are in, and the Vegas Golden Knights are on the clock to determine who will be selected in the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Each team will lose one player off their roster, either through an expansion selection or the Golden Knights signing a free agent.

Vegas must select at least 20 players who are under contract for the 2017-18 season and a minimum of 14 forwards, 9 defensemen and 3 goaltenders. The contracts of the selected players must fall between 60% ($43.8MM) and 100% ($73MM) of the 2016-17 salary cap. The entire rules for the selection process can be found here.

Here at PHR  Zach Leach, Brian La Rose, Mike Furlano, Nate Brown, Seth Lawrence, Holger Stolzenberg and I all submitted what we thought the Vegas expansion selections would look like, and below is the projected roster based on those predictions. This made for a pretty interesting lineup, selecting a surplus of NHL defensemen and goaltenders in order to collect assets for the summer.

Forwards (15):

James Neal (NSH)
Cody Eakin (DAL)
David Perron (STL)
Jamie McGinn (ARZ)
Brock Nelson (NYI)
William Karlsson (CBJ)
Hunter Shinkaruk (CGY)
Kerby Rychel (TOR)
Marko Dano (WPG)
Jon Marchessault (FLA)
Charles Hudon (MTL)
Nicolas Kerdiles (ANA)
Beau Bennett (NJD)
Brendan Gaunce (VAN)
Taylor Leier (PHI)

Defensemen (10):

Marc Methot (OTT)
Brenden Dillon (SJS)
Mathew Dumba (MIN)
Brayden McNabb (LAK)
Colin Miller (BOS)
Klas Dahlbeck (CAR)
Trevor van Riemsdyk (CHI)
Griffin Reinhart (EDM)
Jake Dotchin (TB)
Nate Schmidt (WSH)

Goaltenders (5):

Marc-Andre Fleury (PIT)
Petr Mrazek (DET)
Antti Raanta (NYR)
Calvin Pickard (COL)
Linus Ullmark (BUF)

Obviously, some of the expected side deals were taken into account with Anaheim being the clearest example. Both Sami Vatanen and Josh Manson were not selected, as it is almost a given that Anaheim has some sort of a protection deal with the Golden Knights. That said, as GM George McPhee said today, nothing is final until it’s final.

Here are the honorable mentions, made up of players that received more than one vote but were still not the majority choice:

Sami Vatanen (ANA), Josh Manson (ANA), Alexander Burmistrov (ARZ), Malcolm Subban (BOS), William Carrier (BUF), Eddie Lack (CAR), Mikhail Grigorenko (COL), Jack Johnson (CBJ), Dan Hamhuis (DAL), Iiro Pakarinen (EDM), Christian Folin (MIN), Ryan Strome (NYI), Thomas Hickey (NYI), Michael Grabner (NYR), Bobby Ryan (OTT), Paul Martin (SJ) Nail Yakupov (STL), Dmitrij Jaskin (STL), Cedric Paquette (TB), Andrey Pedan (VAN), Philipp Grubauer (WSH).

We came to a unanimous decision on only three players, with Trevor van Riemsdyk, Marc-Andre Fleury and Marko Dano receiving votes from all seven writers. That uncertainty will make the next few days even more interesting, as surprises and closed-door dealings will be sure to make June 21st a wild night. Make sure to leave your choices in the comments, and what you think the chances of this team would be next season.

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