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New Jersey Devils Receiving Calls For First-Overall Pick

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After Dallas Stars GM Jim Nill announced that he was seriously considering trading the #3 pick in this year’s draft, much of the attention turned to who teams could potentially go after in that slot to warrant moving up. Now, in an interview with Pierre LeBrun of TSN, New Jersey Devils GM Ray Shero reveals that he’s already received calls on the first-overall pick as well. There’s no indication that the Devils would be willing to move it, but as with any asset there is always a chance (insert “Gretzky was traded” cliche here) should a team blow him away with an offer.

The Devils are in an interesting spot as they could likely get some strong additions to the NHL roster if they were to deal the pick, and with an aging core could use the help over the next few seasons. That would be taking a huge risk though, as we showed a month ago when we looked at previous trades involving the first-overall pick. Whether the Devils are eyeing Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier, moving down rarely results in more value than using the top pick in the long run.

It’s also interesting to ponder who may have asked about the pick as it would likely be a rebuilding club or perhaps someone that is afraid of losing a good young player in the expansion draft. Teams like Vancouver and Detroit who could both use the pick hardly have anything worth it on their current roster (unless you think Bo Horvat is going anywhere, which he’s not), while a club like Anaheim would likely want to add to their current roster with any expansion draft-fueled deals.

In all, Shero would be wise to hold onto the pick and start planning for several years from now when players like Michael McLeod and Pavel Zacha are established NHL forces. Adding a talent like Patrick or Hischier could open a new window for the Devils, one that isn’t hampered by the contracts of Mike Cammalleri or Andy Greene.

Columbus Blue Jackets Looking For A “Sniper”

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As the Columbus Blue Jackets reflect on their tremendous season and where to go from here, GM Jarmo Kekalainen told Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman that there is a clear need on his squad: “a sniper in the key moments.” While the Blue Jackets did have 35-goal man Cam Atkinson along with two other 20-goal scorers in Nick Foligno and Brandon Saad, Kekalainen will look at all options to try to give his team another scoring punch. Friedman says the conversation turned to shooting percentages, something that the Blue Jackets actually performed quite well in this season despite what the GM had to say. Cam Atkinson

Columbus finished with a team shooting percentage of 9.7%, good enough for seventh in the league. The leader, Washington, finished with a 10.5% rate. Atkinson led the team at 14.6%, several points higher than his career average up to this point, while Boone Jenner scored 18 goals with a 8.5% rate, nearly five points lower than the 13.3% that took him to 30 goals last season. Does Columbus really need a “sniper”? Or could a rebound from Jenner and William Karlsson, who shot just 6.3% help them cover any regression that may happen to Atkinson.

On the open market this summer, T.J. Oshie would seem to fit the category after an incredible 23.1% shooting percentage this season. Even before that he had an above-average rate of 12.2% for his career. Alexander Radulov has a near-elite number of 14.5% for his career even it did come down a bit this season. Either of these players would be considered huge (and unlikely) goal-scoring additions for the Blue Jackets, even though Radulov is more of a playmaker in style.

There is also Pierre-Luc Dubois, the 2016 third-overall pick who overcame a dreadful start to post a respectable season in the QMJHL. A mid-season trade from Cape Breton saw Dubois’ point production and shooting percentage skyrocket, scoring 15 goals in the final 28 games and adding another 9 in the playoffs for Blainville-Boisbriand. If Dubois makes the Blue Jackets out of camp, he has all the skills to be a goal-scoring threat at the next level. As does youngster Oliver Bjorkstrand, who Kekalainen mentioned by name to Friedman. The young forward scored six goals in his NHL stint this season, but has a proven track record of putting the puck in the net. Scoring 113 goals in his final two years of junior hockey, Bjorkstrand has put up 41 in 105 career AHL games to this point (including playoffs).

However they find it, and increase in goal production for one of the best teams in the NHL this year is a scary thought for the rest of the Eastern Conference. After putting up 249 tallies (good for sixth-most in the league), the team has one of the deepest forward groups in the league, but lacks any real superstar. If Atkinson or someone else can take that next step it might not be a first-round exit in 2017-18.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Craig Anderson Will Be Protected From Expansion Draft

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Though it doesn’t come as much of a surprise, Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion confirmed today that Craig Anderson will be the goalie protected for the team in the upcoming expansion draft. With Mike Condon set to become an unrestricted free agent, that means the Golden Knights will get a chance to negotiate with him prior to the draft, and also puts into question whether the Senators will look to retain him on a longer-term contract after the season. Anderson has just a single year left on his contract, but at 36 was one of the biggest reasons the Senators reached game 7 of the Eastern Conference final.

While protecting Anderson seems like the obvious choice after his excellent season—the veteran goaltender put up a .926 save percentage despite his personal issues—Condon looks more like the future in Ottawa should they be able to sign him. Dorion mentioned during his press conference that if they can’t sign Condon (which would confirm that they’re trying to) that Andrew Hammond could be in as the backup to Anderson, and though Hammond had a Cinderella-like run when his career started, he had a terrible season fighting injury and is already 29-years old. Dorion admits talks with Condon haven’t gone well so far, but that he will speak to his agent next week.

In terms of other players being protected, Dorion was less forthcoming. He put it simply:

We’re going to lose a player. That’s part of the deal. Las Vegas payed a lot of money to get in this league, and that’s part of the deal. Are you mad about it? No. That’s part of the deal. We’ve got enough depth that I don’t see any radical changes to this team.

There has been much speculation about the possibility of Bobby Ryan being exposed, though when Ian Mendes of TSN asked if Dorion had changed his mind during the playoffs about certain players, the GM said that they have to take everything into account. Ryan exploded in the playoffs after a dreadful season, turning into one of the team’s best forwards. After scoring just 25 points in the regular season, Ryan put up 15 in the Senators’ 19 playoff games and may have done enough to warrant protection once again. Supremely talented, Ryan has the biggest cap-hit on the team and is signed through the 2021-22 season.

2017 Offer Sheet Compensation

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Though it is almost never used in today’s NHL, the idea of an offer sheet still intrigues fans and media alike. Signing a restricted free agent out from under the nose of a rival, taking a superstar away in his prime. Brett Barrett broke it down for us earlier this month, when he took a look at some of the top available names on the RFA market this summer. We’ve seen examples of offer sheets in the past, with Shea Weber signing a 14-year contract with Philadelphia in 2012, only to have it matched by Nashville. The Predators would have received four first-round picks had they let the then-26-year old Norris runner-up walk away.

Offer sheet compensation is based on the average salary of the league, something that Elliotte Friedman reports has gone up to ~$3.01MM this season, a 4.55% bump from a year ago. Because of it, the compensation has been set and Friedman has provided a breakdown.

$1,295,571 or less No compensation
$1,295,571 to $1,962,968 Third-round pick
$1,962,968 to $3,925,975 Second-round pick
$3,925,975 to $5,888,960 First and third-round picks
$5,888,960 to $7,851,948 First, second and third-round picks
$7,851,948 to $9,814,935 Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $9,814,935 Four first-round picks

This season has an impressive group of RFAs headlined by players like Leon Draisaitl, David Pastrnak and Ryan Johansen (among many, many others). There will be much speculation over a possible offer sheet, but they’re used more as a negotiating tactic for the player than a real option for teams looking to acquire talent. Even if they are signed, the player is hardly ever allowed to leave.

It is important to note, that to sign a player to an offer sheet a team must still have their own original picks for the compensation. That means they can’t go out and deal for picks in order to sign a player. Compensation would begin from the 2018 draft, as none of the sheets could be signed until July 1st when these players become free agents. Another small note, is that if a team does decide to match an offer sheet to retain the player they cannot trade him for an entire year afterwards.

Playoff Notes: Neal, Hornqvist, Fisher, Smith

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There is always talk about who came out on the better side of any trade. Who got the best player? Who got ripped off? Well, in the case of the 2014 trade between the two current Stanley Cup participants, it looks like an even trade. Adam Vingan of the Tennessean looks at the trade that sent James Neal from Pittsburgh to the Nashville Predators for Patric Hornqvist and the impact they have had on their respective clubs.

Neal, who was a winger for many top-line centers including Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, went from being a sidekick to a sniper wing. His 90 goals in three seasons (playoff goals included) has been a key to the Predators’ offensive success as they allowed him to be a focal point to their offense. This year, he has put up 23 goals and 18 assists, including another five playoff goals. The Penguins had enough scorers, according to general manager Jim Rutherford. What they wanted was a passionate team leader. Hornqvist turned out to be that guy. He still provides plenty of offense (83 goals in three seasons – playoffs included) and has made an impact on the locker room.

  • Nashville’s Mike Fisher has been cleared to play and is expected to play in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals against the Pittsburgh Penguins after suffering from a head injury, according to Adam Vingan of the Tennessean. Fisher, the team’s captain, sat out for the final two games against the Anaheim Ducks since he was inadvertently kneed in the head by Ducks’ defenseman Josh Manson during Game 4 on March 18. The 36-year-old center has been the team’s emotional leader since acquired in 2011 from the Ottawa Senators. His 18 goals and 24 assists continue to be solid, although he has not tallied a point in 14 playoff games so far.
  • Vingan also says that forward Craig Smith is cleared to play in tomorrow’s Game 1 against the Penguins. Smith, who played in just one game in the second and third series due to a lower-body injury, could get into the lineup Monday. The 27-year-old center has scored 12 goals and 17 assists this season.

The Pros And Cons Of Trading Jonathan Drouin

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Due to their tight cap space both now and in the near future, the Tampa Bay Lightning and general manager Steve Yzerman will have to make a big decision soon about the future of young 22-year-old rising star Jonathan Drouin. There has been talk for much of the offseason already that the team might look to trade the young scorer for a top-four defenseman, which has created some outrage about the team trading a player of Drouin’s potential.

Drouin had a breakout year in 2016-17, scoring 21 goals and adding 32 assists for a 53 point season. And he’s likely to have just scratched the surface of his potential. Yes, Drouin chose to sit out games in 2015-16 and both looked selfish for demanding a trade and caused problems for the Lightning, but Drouin and the organization has moved past that, according to Tampa Bay Times writer Martin Fennelly. The scribe writes that under no circumstances do you trade away a top-talent like Drouin. The former third-overall pick in the 2013 draft has the potential to be one of the best players in the NHL if he plays to his potential.

Many people believe that Drouin could be a point-a-game player. Hall of Famer Phil Esposito, the franchise’s founder, compared Drouin to Wayne Gretzky. And that’s why, according to Fennelly, that you don’t trade a potential star. You don’t have to. The scribe suggests trading Tyler Johnson instead. The 26-year-old scored 19 goals last year and should be able to bring in a solid defenseman – perhaps not a star – but a blueliner that can still improve that defense.

However, there are others factors to consider, writes Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times, as the two writers wrote opposing columns. When the team’s disappointing season ended, without a playoff berth, Yzerman didn’t blame all the team’s injuries, but the Lightning’s lack of defense and that is the key to the team’s future success. The team allowed opposing teams too many scoring opportunities due to a weak defense. It’s not like the Lightning can just go out and sign the top free agent defenseman on the market. The team couldn’t afford Kevin Shattenkirk, let alone Karl Alzner. Cap space is the problem.

Smith says the idea of trading Drouin is crazy, but you have to look at all the factors, which includes the defensive problems as well as the cap ramifications. The team must lock up three restricted free agents this year, including Drouin, Ondrej Palat and Johnson (as well as add a back-up goalie) with just $18MM in cap space. That would be a major challenge. The team must also factor in that they must give a big contract to Nikita Kucherov in two years as well.

On top of that, Drouin’s value is at an all-time high. Every team would want to put a package together to get the young scorer. His value would be able to net multiple assets with a top-two or top-four defenseman just the beginning of an offer. The team could net other assets of young talent and/or picks, which could keep Tampa Bay on top for years to come from a trade like this. There are rumors about packages ranging from Los Angeles Kings defenseman Jake Muzzin or Minnesota Wild’s Matt Dumba and Marco Scandella as potential starting points in trades. And if Yzerman waits until just before the expansion protection roster deadline, he may be able to get an even greater package.

However, Fennelly points out that Tampa Bay should be reminded of a similar situation several years ago when the Boston Bruins traded Tyler Seguin to the Dallas Stars in 2013 for a package of players because the Bruins thought Seguin was a problem-child. Seguin now is one of the best scorers in the league. You don’t want to be the team that traded away a star player.

Rangers Ready To Make Major Moves On Defense

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The New York Rangers biggest need might just be acquiring a top defenseman and the Rangers are going to give a long, hard look at Washington Capitals’ blueliner Kevin Shattenkirk. The 28-year old veteran is coming off his best offensive season yet, scoring 13 goals and 43 assists for 56 points for the Capitals and Blues combined. Pro Hockey Rumors reporter Gavin Lee recently said in his PHR Chat on Thursday that he believes that Shattenkirk will end up with the Rangers.

The Rangers need a new presence on defense. They especially need a top-four defenseman who they can pair up with captain Ryan McDonough. Veteran Dan Girardi has struggled mightily of late and at age 33, isn’t likely to have a comeback year. Girardi is more likely to find himself taking a reduced role next season, which means they must acquire a top blueliner. Enter Shattenkirk, who immediately would help the Blueshirt’s power play as the veteran is second only to Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson in power play points by a defenseman.

The only question is can they afford the defenseman? Sean Hartnett of CBS New York writes that he believes that Shattenkirk will cost the team a seven-year deal of at least 6.5MM annually. The team would have trouble fitting that type of contract under their salary cap unless they looked into relieving themselves of a bloated contract, such as Girardi. The defenseman has been with the Rangers for 12 years, but has struggled lately, especially showing his shortcomings in the playoffs against the Ottawa Senators as he showed he could not keep up with their speedy forwards. His four goals and 11 assists was one of his worst seasons yet on offense. Hartnett suggests the team may look into a buyout of Girardi to free up enough money to make a run at Shattenkirk. Unfortunatey, Girardi has three years left at 5.5MM each year. However, if New York wanted to buy out Girardi, they could spread his salary out over the next six years.

The scribe also suggested the team could consider buying out 30-year-old Marc Staal instead, who could have his contract spread out over eight years as he has four years left at $5.7MM. Staal also struggled at the blueline this year and only was able to put up 10 points this season. One final suggestion to fix their aging defensive corps would be to try and trade for Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba, but that would require a large and impressive package of talent they would have to return, so Shattenkirk might make for a better fit in New York. Either way, it looks like the Rangers will have to do something to fix up that defense.

Fleury’s Tenure In Pittsburgh Almost Over

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With the Stanley Cup about to begin on Monday, it was backup Marc-Andre Fleury who got quite a bit of attention at media day today. The backup goalie, who stepped up in the first two rounds of the playoffs and led the team to victories over the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Washington Capitals before giving way to starter Matt Murray, will almost guaranteed be in a Pittsburgh Penguins’ uniform for the last time after spending the last 13 years with the franchise.

“I try not to,” said Fleury, when asked whether he thinks about the upcoming offseason. “I try to live, day-by-day, go like that. We will see what happens at the end of the season.” The veteran goalie added, via NBCSports, that winning a Stanley Cup again would be one lasting memory he’d like to take away from this final season in Pittsburgh.

Because of the expansion draft, Fleury’s tenure in Pittsburgh is likely over. To begin with, the veteran has a No Movement Clause, which will ironically force the team to move him or buy him out rather than lose Murray, who is younger, cheaper and better. Fortunately for Fleury, his playoff success which included nine wins, a 2.56 GAA and a .924 save percentage in 15 playoff games, makes it easier to trade him as the 32-year-old will still be in high demand. Fleury does have a limited no-trade clause, which allows him to be traded to 18 teams of his choosing. While we have no idea who the 18 teams are, there is a good chance that he might agree to go to the Calgary Flames.

The Flames are coming off a strong season in which they reached the playoffs, but were swept out of the playoffs with much of the blame directed at their goaltending tandem of Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson. Both are free agents on July 1 and the team will be desperate for a starter.

While the Flames would have several options to choose from including Fleury, a veteran might be exactly what Calgary needs as their top two prospects are goaltenders in Jon Gillies and Tyler Parsons. Gillies, 23, just finished up his first full season for the AHL’s Stockton Heat. The former star goaltender from Providence College, finished the season with a 2.93 GAA, but the 2012 third-round pick did make his NHL debut this year. He might be a good backup for next year, but without a doubt isn’t ready for the starting job. Parsons, on the other hand, was a second-rounder in 2016 and isn’t ready for the NHL club yet. So, a veteran like Fleury would be a good fixture in net for the next two years as that’s what’s left of his contract.

Other teams like the Winnipeg Jets may be good fits as well, but there is no guarantee that the Jets are on Fleury’s 18-team list of teams. We’ll know soon enough.

 

Edmonton Oilers Notes: Nugent-Hopkins, Sekera, Bear

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The Edmonton Oilers, coming off a successful season in which they improved by 16 victories, and reached the second round of the playoffs (losing to the Anaheim Ducks in seven games), feel that some of their young players have more to learn and improve on as they look towards the 2017-18 season. Oilers head coach Todd McLellan was quoted recently on NHL.com that he feels that center Ryan Nugent-Hopkins must continue to improve, especially on the offensive end.

The former No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 draft has already played six full seasons with Edmonton and yet is still only 24 years old. The defensive center, needs to take more chances, according to McLellan and, while the coach praised the young forward for his all-around game, he must learn that it’s OK to take risks, especially now that he has a very talented team around him.

Nugent Hopkins finished with 18 goals and 25 assists for 43 points in 82 games this past season, which was his one his least productive seasons, offensively. He produced 19 goals in 2013-14 and then 24 goals in 2014-15 before only scoring 12 in 2015-16 in 55 games. He was not able to take his game to a new level as he told his coach that he was more focused on his defensive play. His playoff performance this was also disappointing as he didn’t score in 13 games and only finished with four assists.

“… we need him to be a little more productive so we’re going to encourage him to take a little more risk to try and be a little more productive offensively,” McLellan said. “Not at the cost of losing a game or anything like that, but mistakes are going to happen and you have teammates that have to cover for you sometimes.”

  • McLellan also tried to look on the bright side of the loss of their top defenseman Andrej Sekera, who will be out six to nine months after tearing his ACL in Game 5 of the second-round series against the Ducks. The coach said that while the loss is tragic and the team will miss his veteran presence over the first half (or more) of the season, this might allow some young defensemen to get a chance they otherwise would never have gotten. Matt Benning is one name that came up in the interview. Benning, 23, who played in his first season with the Oilers after suiting up for Northeastern University for three years, got increased playoff time after Sekera went down and showed his is up for the challenge. Darnell Nurse, 22, also could see increased playing time as well in the first half of the season.
  • Speaking of young defensive players, Oilers’ defensive prospect Ethan Bear’s season came to an end after his Seattle Thunderbirds were eliminated from the Memorial Cup. The former 2015 fifth-round pick had a breakout year in the WHL, finishing with 28 regular season goals. If you add his 17 playoff games to his totals, Bear finished his season with 34 goals and 62 assists for 96 points. The 20-year-old will now focus on NHL training camp with the hope of sticking with the Oilers. If not, he will be expected to join the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL.

Expansion Primer: Florida Panthers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After cracking 100 points and winning the Atlantic Division in 2015-16, injuries and overall under-performance sent the Panthers tumbling back to Earth in 2016-17. Florida finished with over 20 points less, at 81, good enough for sixth in the division and a top-ten draft slot. Yet, hopes remain high in Sunrise, FL as the Panthers are still a team built around young stars that has just begun to reach its potential. With Huberdeau, Trochek, Barkov, Bjugstad, Ekblad, and Matheson forming a core group under 25 with top prospects like forwards Henrik Borgstrom and Adam Mascherin and goalie Sam Montembeault still on the way, Florida only has to worry about adding complementary pieces to a talented young group.

Yet, the shadow of the Expansion Draft still looms large over the Panthers. With so many good, young players under contract, the expansion process will not be easy for the Cats. They may be able to protect their best young players, but they are nearly guaranteed to lose a solid complementary veteran.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad, Jussi Jokinen, Derek MacKenzie, Colton Sceviour, Jonathan Marchessault, Steven Hodges, Michael Sgarbossa, Graham Black

Defense
Keith Yandle (NMC), Aaron Ekblad, Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, Mark Pysyk, MacKenzie Weegar, Reece Scarlett

Goaltender
Roberto Luongo, James Reimer

Notable Exemptions

Jared McCann, Denis Malgin, Michael Matheson, Ian McCoshen

Key Decisions

The Panthers don’t have an easy decision to make at any position group. They face the risk of losing a prominent forward, defenseman, or goalie if they don’t read the Vegas Golden Knights correctly. Perhaps the biggest name who may be left unprotected in net: potential future Hall of Fame goalie Roberto Luongo. Many were surprised when the Panthers brought back Luongo, and with him the remainder of a 12-year, $64MM contract, in 2014. Even more were surprised when, nonetheless, Florida signed James Reimer to a five-year, $17MM contract on July 1st of last year. That move seems like it has partly been leading up to this point. While Luongo and Reimer each started 39 games in 2016-17 with very similar records, Reimer had the edge on Luongo in performance statistics. While this was their first season sharing the net, it is now the second season in a row in which Reimer has outplayed Luongo. It seems very unlikely that Florida will choose to protect the 38-year-old Luongo, who is under contract at $5.33MM per year until the age of 43, over the 29-year-old Reimer, with a more reasonable $3.4MM cap hit over that same span of time. Luongo will thus likely be one of the biggest names under contract and available to Vegas, but don’t expect a new team to take on that contract. Should they expose Reimer instead, the chances are much higher that the Knights will select a Panther goalie, but chances are both keepers are back in Florida next year regardless.

Among the forward corps, there is a lot to sort out. To get the easy ones out of the way, young scorers Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov, and Nick Bjugstad are almost surely safe. Assuming the Panthers go with the 7/3 scheme, that leaves them with three forwards left to protect. If they do go 8-skaters, then those four would represent all the protected forwards. After a breakout campaign in which he led the Panthers with 30 goals, 26-year-old Jonathan Marchessault is also highly likely to be protected. This leaves just two spots left for four valuable veteran forwards: Reilly Smith, Jussi Jokinen, Colton Sceviour, and captain Derek MacKenzie. Luckily for the Panthers, all four meet the qualifications (having played 70 games over the last two seasons or 40 games last season and be under contract) to meet the two-forward quota, so whoever the GM Dale Tallon wants he can have without having to consider other expansion criteria. With the free agent status of Jaromir Jagr up in the air, the leadership value of Jokinen and MacKenzie must be considered by a young Florida team. However, MacKenzie has not scored more than 20 points in a season since 2010-11 and is likely not of interest to Vegas and can be left unprotected. So who of Jokinen, Smith, and Sceviour will join him in the Draft? The 25-year-old Smith has the best chance to be the best producer for the longest amount of time in Florida. This also could be a way for the Panthers to dump the five-year, $25MM extension they signed him to last summer before it even begins. As he did with the Boston Bruins, Smith had a great first season with Florida in 2015-16, but just as he did in Boston, Smith fell off significantly in year two. The Panthers will have to re-sign Bjugstad and Marchessault and give non-entry level deals to Denis Malgin, Jared McCann, and others before that contract expires. Can they afford the weight of a $5MM annual cap hit for an average player? If Smith has scared them off, expect them to expose him and hope Vegas takes the risk. If not, it comes down to Jokinen and Sceviour. Again, the 33-year-old Jokinen has the leadership and experience and is just one year removed from a 60-point season. Sceviour can’t boast that kind of career production, but at $950K to Jokinen’s $4MM and Smith’s $5MM, he gets the Panthers more bang for their buck.

Defense is the real nightmare for Florida. Keith Yandle’s No-Movement Clause makes him automatically protected, though he would be protected regardless after signing a seven-year deal last year that began with a nice 41-point season. Aaron Ekblad is also as close to a sure thing as their is in the Expansion Draft as far as protection. The 2015 Calder Trophy-winner struggled a bit last season, but is still a top pair defenseman at just 21 years old. That leaves defensive spot left in the 7/3 scheme and three stalwart defeseman to choose from: Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, and Mark Pysyk. Unfortunately, unless circumstance change, Demers is out of the equation. With Yandle and Ekblad protected and Petrovic and Pysyk as restricted free agents, Demers is the only defenseman on the roster who can meet the 70-40 quota. It is possible for Florida to re-sign and expose Petrovic, Pysyk, or impending unrestricted free agent Jakub Kindl and then protect Demers, but their hesitation to do so yet seems to imply that they won’t be. Thus, Demers will be exposed and stands a very high chance of playing in Vegas next season. As for Petrovic verus Pysyk, both are similar in age and have great ability, but little to show for it on the score sheet early in their careers. The Panthers brass know best which 25-year-old fits best on the team, and likely both will remain in Florida, but don’t be surprised if they give the homegrown talent Petrovic the nod.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Jonathan Huberdeau
Vincent Trocheck
Aleksander Barkov
Nick Bjugstad
Jonathan Marchessault
Jussi Jokinen
Colton Sceviour

Defensemen

Keith Yandle (NMC)
Aaron Ekblad
Alex Petrovic

Goalie

James Reimer

Every team has a few risks that they must take in the Expansion Draft. As extraordinarily unlikely as it is, losing Luongo would be a blow and would cause the Panthers to have to change their off-season priorities to focus on helping Reimer in net. Smith being selected could come back to bite them if his $25MM deal pays off in Vegas. Being stripped of their captain would be rough on the locker room and they will likely hold out hope that there is no interest in MacKenzie. Having Pysyk taken from them after he was the centerpiece of last summer’s Dmitry Kulikov trade would feel like a waste.

So what sets Florida apart? Exposing Demers barely qualifies as a risk. The 28-year-old was one of the prizes of free agency last summer and just finished the first season of a relatively affordable five-year, $22.5MM deal. He scored 28 points this season, the second best campaign of his career and a level of production closer to that of his time back with the San Jose Sharks. He also has seen a steady climb in shooting percentage as the years have gone on and could easily break double digits next season, regardless of where he plays. However, the best thing about Demers for the Golden Knights is that he is a safe pick. He can lead their defense, can easily play 20+ minutes per night, can hit and block shots, and is signed long-term, meaning he can become a franchise player and potentially the team’s first captain. Unless the Panthers go 8-skaters or extend a current qualifying defenseman to then protect Demers, they face a real risk of losing a very solid player for nothing after just one year.

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