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Archives for August 2016

Roster Crunch: Central Division

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Previously, we looked at some of the battles for the last few spots among Pacific Division teams, happening to focus mostly on the third pairing on many teams.  With the Anaheim Ducks leading the way with their glut of young defenders, we’ll head to the Central Division next where there are a few teams who might be contenders to scoop up one of extra Ducks pieces.

Dallas Stars –  It’s not often you see a team lose three of it’s top-four defenders in one offseason, but that’s what happened to the Stars this summer after Alex Goligoski, Jason Demers and Kris Russell all became unrestricted free agents. While Russell has yet to sign, he was probably miscast as the 24-minute-a-night player the Stars used him as down the stretch. They brought in Dan Hamhuis to fill one of the spots, but it’ll be a battle between Jamie Oleksiak, Stephen Johns, Patrik Nemeth, Jordie Benn and Esa Lindell for playing time this year. Because Johns is the only right-handed member of that group, perhaps Julius Honka, a former first-round pick, will make his NHL debut this season as well.

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Stars Notes: Oleksiak, Seguin, Nichushkin

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Athletic ability really is a family matter. Stars’ defenseman Jamie Oleksiak may be the highest paid member of his family after he inked a new deal that will pay him almost $1MM next season, but he’ll have to take a supporting role in the family newsletter this month.  Oleksiak’s 16-year old sister Penny won two Olympic medals over the weekend, capturing silver in the 100m butterfly and anchoring a team that was awarded bronze for their time in the 4x100m freestyle.

When Jamie was asked about his state of mind while watching Penny swim for their native Canada, sibling rivalry didn’t come into the equation:  “It’s just surreal. I feel like the biggest super fan right now watching her and I’m screaming and losing my voice. She’s done such a great job and we’re all so proud of her. We’re all so proud to watch her represent Canada.”

Oleksiak will try to get his hockey career back on track this season after playing in only 19 games last year. His waiver eligibility and the acquisition of Kris Russell mid-season played the biggest parts in his time in the press box, and the former first-round pick will have to prove he’s deserved of more playing time in 2016-17.

  • In a Q&A with media on Saturday afternoon, Tyler Seguin (via The Dallas News) answered questions about his injured Achilles tendon, but also shared some feelings on the Stars’ chances this season. “Our window really just opened and I think every team’s got kind of that window that opens where you can win a championship, and I think our time definitely has now, so that part’s exciting. Getting a veteran guy like Hamhuis, it makes you even more excited for the season to start here.”  Seguin is referring to Dan Hamhuis, who signed a two-year, $7.5MM deal on July 1st.
  • While the team quickly came to an agreement with Oleksiak for next season, Valeri Nichushkin remains unsigned. It was almost a month ago that GM Jim Nill reported that Nichushkin was training in North America and isn’t considering an exit to the KHL, but there has been no other news on the contract negotiations.  Nichushkin is coming off a promising season that saw him contribute 29 points in limited minutes.  Still just 21, the former 10th-overall pick will have to show some more goal scoring ability if he’s to cement his spot next to Jason Spezza on the second line.

Snapshots: Las Vegas, Perron, Bertuzzi,

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Steve Carp of the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports today on the process of naming the city’s new NHL expansion team, with owner Bill Foley saying that they’ve narrowed the list down to four possibilities. Foley originally submitted 18 names to the league for approval. The team is now in the process of discussing logos with Adidas, and their fit with any potential name. That said, you may be able to rule out the Las Vegas Knights playing in the NHL in 2017. That’s because the rights to the name “Knights” are owned by the OHL’s London Knights in Canada.

While noting that the name would be fine for use in the United States, Foley said that there would be trouble in Canada. Carp quotes Foley saying that “to acquire the name from London is not economically feasible.” The Review-Journal attempted to contact Knights owner and former NHL forward Dale Hunter, but were unable to.

Here are some more links from around the league:

  • St. Louis Blues forward David Perron was interviewed for RDS today. The interview is in French, but according to a translation from Habs Eyes on the Prize, the Canadiens were the final team in the running for his services before he chose to return to the Blues. While mentioning the allure of playing in Montreal, Perron says he ultimately couldn’t leave the money offered by the Blues on the table. Perron was originally drafted by the Blues in 2007, before being traded to the Oilers in 2013.
  • Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press profiled Red Wings prospect Tyler Bertuzzi today. Full of quotes from his uncle, former Red Wings winger Todd Bertuzzi, St. James reports that Tyler is living in the elder Bertuzzi’s Michigan home as he prepares for the season. While there may be some bias in play, Todd sees potential, saying “I think there’s a good possibility that if he has a very good camp and keeps his head small, goes in there and works hard, there’s a good chance he shows them something.”

Week In Review: 8/1/16 – 8/7/16

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August is generally the quietest month of the entire calendar year for hockey news stories. The first week certainly reinforced that notion with little in the way of compelling story lines. Nonetheless, here’s your roundup of the week’s news.

Notable UFA Signings

Sam Gagner (Blue Jackets) – One year, $650K

Key Prospect Signings

Olli Juolevi (Canucks) – ELC – Three Years, $925K AAV with $850K in Schedule A bonuses available and $600K in Schedule B bonuses for the 2017-18 season.

Coaching/Management Hires

Former NHL players Jay Leach and Trent Whitfield were added to the coaching staff of the AHL Providence Bruins.

Las Vegas made a number of hires as they fill out their front office. Kelly McCrimmon becomes the team’s assistant GM, while Wil Nichol, formerly a scout in the Washington organization, was hired as the club’s director of player development.

Overseas Transactions

Marc-Andre Bergeron, who appeared in 490 NHL regular season games and tallied 253 points primarily filling the role of power play specialist for seven NHL clubs, was released from his contract with Zurich in the Swiss League.

Snapshots: Keith Gretzky, Quebec Expansion, Couture

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In an article appearing on Today’s Slapshot – a division of The FanRag Sports Network – Craig Morgan, who also covers Arizona for AZSports.com, discusses several topics that relate in some way to the Coyotes. Interestingly, Morgan writes about Keith Gretzky, who was recently hired as an assistant GM in Edmonton and who was the director of amateur scouting for the Coyotes from 2007 – 2011 and oversaw the team’s drafts during that time. Gretzky was hired by the Oilers in part due to his scouting experience and success running the drafts for Arizona and more recently Boston. But Morgan says Gretzky’s successes at the draft may be overstated.

Despite success in the first round, where the Coyotes selected the likes of Kyle Turris, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Mikkel Boedker and Connor Murphy, the team has struggled to find NHL talent in the lower rounds. According to Morgan, new Coyotes GM John Chayka has said a team’s ability to draft is measured in the later rounds. Clubs need to be able to identify and develop prospects outside of the draft’s first round in order to sustain on-ice success.

During his tenure with the Coyotes, the team selected 29 players in rounds two through seven, according to the article. Of that group, only four have made it to the NHL and just two are still in the Coyotes organization.

Teams typically need to draft and develop two or three NHL contributors every year in order to keep the pipeline of affordable young talent flowing. Even if your first-round pick pans out, clubs need at least one more of their selections to hit for the draft to be considered fruitful. If you aren’t hitting on your draft choices then it’s likely the team will have to go the free agent route to flesh out its roster and consequently put themselves in a salary cap bind. Teams like the Coyotes simply can’t afford to do that.

Now Morgan does go on to say Gretzky’s track record with Arizona does not necessarily have anything to do with the job he did in Boston. Nor is it an indicator of how he’ll perform as the assistant GM in Edmonton.

For more from Morgan and elsewhere in the NHL:

  • Even though they were not awarded an expansion franchise for 2017-18, the group behind the Quebec bid is not giving up on bringing an NHL franchise to Quebec City. Quebec likely will eventually get a franchise, though it may not be via expansion. I believe the league wants to also place a team in Seattle and that would probably be through expansion. Quebec would then be in a position to take in a club looking to relocate. Most of the teams that have been recently linked to relocation currently reside in the East. In order to gain balance between the two conferences, expanding from 15 – 16 clubs in the West is the simplest solution, while keeping Quebec as a fallback in the event of relocation.
  • In a piece for The Players Tribune, San Jose forward Logan Couture lists the six defensive players he considers the toughest to match-up against. Not surprisingly, all of his choices reside with him in the Western Conference, including one who also suits up for the Sharks. It’s hard to argue with any of his choices and it’s easy to understand the apparent western bias since he sees the guys in his own conference at least two times more often during the regular season, to say nothing of the playoffs. Brent Burns and Duncan Keith are elite players who impact the game in all three zones. Roman Josi is rapidly developing into one of the top blue liners in the NHL. Mark Giordano – Couture has a funny story about the Flames standout – might be a late-bloomer but he is undoubtedly a quality player. Finally, Anze Kopitar and Jonathan Toews may well be the best two-way pivots in the game today.

A Few Of 2015’s Best Free Agent Signings

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While we might have ideas about which of this summer’s free agent signings were reasonable and which will eventually look like overpays, nothing is absolutely certain until those players finally take the ice for the 2016-17 season. A year later we can begin to determine which of last year’s free agent signings have worked out best.

It’s important to realize free agency, in practice, typically rewards players for past performances and not for what the player is likely going to contribute during the term of their new contract. Under the current CBA, most players do not reach unrestricted free agency until their late 20’s, after eight NHL seasons. Even players who make their NHL debuts immediately after being drafted are already 26 or 27 before accruing eight seasons in the league. At that age, most players are near the tail end of their prime or already beginning to enter the decline phase of their career. But with every team in the league usually willing to spend in free agency, bidding wars often break out and drive up the prices for those players available on the open market.

While every team looks for bargains in free agency, the reality is they are content to actually get their money’s worth as opposed to paying too much for too little. The following list comprises some – not all – of the best free agent deals signed last summer; the bargains as well as the deals where teams realized full value for their investments in year one. Granted, this is only after one year so some of the players on this list in the midst of multiyear contracts might not look so good down the road.

  • Paul Martin – San Jose (four years, $4.85MM AAV) – Martin might have been considered among the riskiest signings last summer. Already 34-years-old, it didn’t seem prudent giving the veteran blue liner a four-year deal. But Martin was everything the Sharks hoped for and needed in 2015-16. He may have only tallied 20 points in 78 games but he finished 3rd on the Sharks averaging 20:44 in ice time per game and was a steadying influence in San Jose’s top-four. His $4.85MM cap charge ranks 47th in the NHL among defensemen suggesting he’s being paid as a top-pair defender but with 79 blue liners set to account for $4MM annually against the cap, Martin’s charge isn’t out of line. This deal might not look so rosy as Martin ages but at least for season one its among the best signed in the summer of 2015.
  • Lee Stempniak – New Jersey (one year, $850K) – Stempniak is widely considered the steal of free agency last year. He went to camp with the Devils earning a job and a one-year deal worth just $850K. For their investment, New Jersey got 41 points in 63 games and subsequently flipped the veteran forward to Boston at the trade deadline for second (2017) and fourth-round (2016) picks. Yes, he benefited from receiving top-line minutes in New Jersey which may have partially inflated his offensive numbers, but he still did rank in the top-100 in Pts/60 averaging 1.76 at five-on-five. Stempniak was able to parlay his quality performance into a two-year deal with Carolina with a $2.5MM AAV.
  • Justin Williams – Washingtom (two years, $3.25MM AAV) – Williams, a three-time Stanley Cup winner, was imported in large part due to his track record as a proven and clutch playoff performer. Even though the Capitals bowed out in the second-round of the postseason, Williams still showed a penchant for coming up big when it mattered most. In games five and six of their second-round playoff series and with Washington on the verge of being oustered, Williams tallied two goals and three points. He wasn’t too shabby in the regular season either. Not only did he bring his usually stellar possession game – 53.1 CF% – but he also netted 22 goals and 52 points in 82 games. That’s excellent production for the 160th ranked salary cap hit among forwards.
  • Matt Cullen  – Pittsburgh (one year, $800K) – Cullen went the same route as Stempniak, going unsigned through the summer and eventually accepting a PTO with Pittsburgh. After making the roster out of camp, Cullen signed an $800K deal and rewarded the Penguins with terrific production in the team’s bottom-six. Cullen averaged 1.65 Pts/60 at even-strength, finishing with 16 goals and 32 points. Cullen played a key role in the Penguins Cup championship run, averaging the eight-most ice time among forwards and tallying four goals.

Feel free to chime in on the comments section if you feel we’ve omitted someone from this list. It wasn’t intended to necessarily be a full, comprehensive list but we wanted to point out some of 2015’s best signings.

Revisiting Vancouver’s Search For Scoring Line Wing

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With franchise cornerstones Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin each nearing the end of their great careers and after missing the postseason by a whopping 12 points, it would appear the Vancouver Canucks should strongly consider tearing down then rebuilding their roster. Instead, Vancouver seems to be trying to walk the fine line between being competitive today while still trying to add youth to the organization to make them better tomorrow. The signing of Loui Eriksson and the trade for Erik Gudbranson – a deal that cost Vancouver young forward Jared McCann and a second-round pick – reinforces the idea the Canucks want to try to compete for a playoff berth this year, even if they sacrifice young talent to do so.

Along those lines, GM Jim Benning has been open about his efforts to add a scoring line winger, whether by trade or by signing one of the few remaining quality free agent forwards on the market, in an attempt to further improve his club’s chances at the postseason. The club has been linked to potential trade target Evander Kane, among others, this summer but James O’Brien, writing for NBC Sports, argues that Vancouver should steer clear of the trade market in their search for an “experienced 15-20 goal-scorer,” and instead add one of the skilled forwards left in free agency.

Vancouver likely has little chance to make the postseason in a division that includes three, near-certain playoff teams and three others who may have made enough roster improvements this summer to realistically challenge. Defending Western Conference champion San Jose should be a near lock for the playoffs, as should Los Angeles and Anaheim. Arizona, Calgary and Edmonton each made major moves that could result in postseason contention. With the playoffs unlikely, Vancouver shouldn’t give up any of the few valuable assets they have in exchange for a marginal increase in their postseason odds this year.

Considering a reunion with UFA Radim Vrbata is unlikely, signing one of Brandon Pirri or Jiri Hudler – two of PHR’s five top remaining UFA’s – would improve the Canucks on the ice for the 2016-17 campaign and won’t cost the team anything other than cash. Additionally, if either player has a productive season for Vancouver, the Canucks could move them at the deadline for future assets. Remember that Hudler, a pending free agent at the time, was dealt from Calgary to the Panthers for second and fourth-round draft choices. That’s exactly the type of move a club like Vancouver should make as opposed to dealing for a veteran player under contract long term.

Hudler, a three-time 20-goal-scorer, had a down season in 2015-16 but is just one year removed from a 31-goal campaign with the Flames. He still tallied 16 goals last year in 72 games, splitting the season with Calgary and Florida. But even in a “down” year, his goal-scoring rate was still comfortably that of a top-six winger. Hudler averaged 0.79 G/60 this past season, a total which ranked 91st overall among forwards who saw at least 500 minutes of even strength ice time. With 30 teams in the league, each with three top-line players, Hudler’s goal production ranks just outside what you would expect from a first-liner.

Pirri averaged 0.74 G/60 last season, good for the 105th best rate among forwards who played 500 minutes at even strength. As with Hudler, in terms of goal scoring alone Pirri is comfortably a second-line player. His career rate of 0.91 G/60 suggests that given more ice time, Pirri would easily exceed 20 goals in a full season.

If Vancouver is simply looking for a player who can put the puck in the net, signing Hudler or Pirri to a one-year deal makes far more sense than giving up assets to acquire a goal-scorer via trade. Considering how late in the summer we are and after seeing how much of a pay cut Sam Gagner took after a lackluster season, it’s likely Hudler is only worth around $2MM per at this point. Pirri probably would sign for less than that figure. Additionally, assuming the club signs one of those free agent wingers and they go on to produce solid numbers, the value Vancouver could extract from a contender at the deadline makes this route far and away the better option for a team that should be focusing more on the future than the present.

 

 

 

Top Five Remaining Unrestricted Free Agents

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Back in June, we posted our Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents. Since then, we’ve seen 38 of our top 50 have signed in the NHL, Brad Richards and Dan Boyle retired, and Kris Versteeg signed in Europe. There are nine players from our list still unsigned.

Let’s take a look at the Top Five UFAs still unsigned:

1. Jiri Hudler (18) – PHR originally predicted a four-year, $16MM contract with New Jersey. While 46 points is still solid for a 32-year-old, Hudler is two years removed from a 76-point, Lady Byng-winning campaign, so the perception is that he’s on the decline. Meanwhile, the Devils traded for Taylor Hall and therefore weren’t looking for another scoring winger. Hudler still offers value for teams looking for a possession positive, offensive winger. Teams have to decide if they’re acquiring the 46-point Hudler, or the 76-point one. Look for a one-year contract in the range of $1MM.

2. James Wisniewski (NR) – Back on June 21 when we posted the original Top 50, Wisniewski was still a member of the Carolina Hurricanes. He was bought out by the Hurricanes on June 30 after playing just 0:47 seconds with them after tearing his ACL on his first shift. We profiled Wisniewski further here. He’s an offensively skilled, right-handed defenseman which has value, but teams will be wary of giving him anything more than a tryout at training camp or one year for cheap.

3. Brandon Pirri (NR) – Similar to Wisniewski, Pirri was not on our original list because he was property of the Anaheim Ducks. However, the Ducks chose not to offer Pirri a qualifying offer, despite him being an offensively talented winger; the budget Ducks likely wanted to avoid heading to arbitration. Pirri is an interesting player, and two years removed from a Cy Young caliber season with 22 goals and 2 assists. He could be an option for teams like the Oilers to upgrade on Nail Yakupov. Look for him to get a one or two year deal in the $1-2MM range, depending on the situation.

4 . Radim Vrbata (27) – Vrbata is coming off a terrible season with just 27 points in 63 games. However, like Hudler, he’s two years removed from a tremendous season, putting up 31 goals and 63 points. Some talk was made around the trade deadline about the Canucks not getting a single concrete trade offer for Vrbata. We originally predicted a one-year, $3.7MM contract with the Avalanche. At this point, if Vrbata is going to get any offers, look for similar terms as Wisniewski: PTO or cheap one-year contract in the Sam Gagner range.

5. Alex Tanguay (33) – We predicted Tanguay signing a one-year, $2.5MM contract with Arizona, where he finished last season. Tanguay is getting up there in age (he’ll turn 37 in November), but has shown the ability to perform in a scoring role. He’s not particularly skilled on the defensive or physical sides of the game, but Tanguay would be a decent fit for a team looking for either a short-term upgrade or a bridge player until a prospect is ready. At this point, expect him to attend a training camp on a PTO.

Snapshots: Blues, Hall, Seguin

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The St. Louis Blues will have a vastly different look this season after a summer of big changes. In an online chat on the St. Louis Post-Dispatch website, Jeremy Rutherford chatted about some of the differences Blues fans can expect this coming season.

Regarding the Brian Elliott trade, Rutherford believed Blues GM Doug Armstrong made the trade to avoid losing him for nothing next summer when Elliott is a UFA. While the trade could go wrong if Jake Allen struggles or gets hurt, the trade makes sense, asset-management wise.

Former captain David Backes left town for a bigger contract in Boston; while Backes claimed Bruins forwards Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand convinced him to sign in Boston, Rutherford shut down that idea saying players will sign wherever is best for them and that if the Blues had offered Backes a fifth year, then it wouldn’t have mattered what Bergeron and Marchand said. As far as replacing Backes as captain, Rutherford felt it was safe to assume one of the remaining assistant captains (Alex Pietrangelo and Alex Steen) would be the new captain. The new assistant would likely be one of Paul Stastny, Jaden Schwartz, and Vladimir Tarasenko – who Rutherford believed was “pretty disappointed to not get an A last year”.

Here are some other notes from around the hockey world:

  • It’s New Jersey Devils day on Pro Hockey Talk, and they have named Taylor Hall as their player under pressure this season. Adam Gretz justified the choice by saying while he knows Hall will produce, he’ll be under scrutiny because of the perception that he’s at fault for the Oilers misfortunes over the last six years and the high price that the Devils parted with to acquire him. Oscar Klefbom’s comments about Hall and Ben Scrivens subsequent agreement will also be weighing on Hall as he looks to prove his former team and teammates wrong.
  • Speaking of top picks from the 2010 NHL Draft that Peter Chiarelli has traded, Dallas Stars center Tyler Seguin says he’s ready to go for the upcoming World Cup in September. Seguin missed all but one of the Stars playoff games with Achilles and calf injuries. Seguin told Steve Hunt of NHL.com it’s been “a bit of a different summer as far as training-wise just coming off an injury, but feeling great and looking forward to the World Cup”.

Restricted Free Agent Contract Projections: Kucherov, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Trouba

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Late in restricted free agency, there are still a number of highly skilled players who remain unsigned. These players generally lack leverage, because other teams behave cautiously given the compensation rules. Then consider that this late in the summer, most teams have their budgets set. If a restricted free agent is paid, it’s often to buy years of unrestricted free agency.

Even into August, there are still candidates to have those years controlled. Here’s a look at what kind of deals four of them may be pursuing.

  • Nikita Kucherov – Having just turned 23, Kucherov is coming off a 30 goal, 36 assist season, leading the Lightning with 66 points. In 2015, his season was nearly identical, with one fewer goal, and the same number of assists. Filip Forsberg is a year younger, but put up very similar offensive numbers for Nashville this year. Forsberg just signed a six year contract worth $6MM per year. Look for Kucherov to get a similar deal. Projection: 6 years, $36MM
  • Johnny Gaudreau – Just shy of 23, Gaudreau has 55 goals, 143 points, in 160 NHL games. This year, Gaudreau hit career highs of 30 goals and 48 points in 79 games. There has been talk of the Flames and Gaudreau pushing for a deal since February, with nothing to show for it. As Eric Francis notes in that link, the closest comparable is Vladimir Tarasenko, who is signed to an eight-year, $60MM contract. Still, there’s a case Gaudreau has actually shown more in the NHL than Tarasenko had before signing. The Flames are also more dependent on him, at least until someone like Sam Bennett breaks out. Projection: 8 years, $64MM
  • Hampus Lindholm – At 22, Lindholm led defensemen in Corsi Relative. That is, he increased his team’s share of the game’s shot attempts more than any defenseman to play 750 minutes. Lindholm’s problem is that NHL teams are often skeptical of these numbers. This leaves defensemen of similar ages and with similar scoring numbers as the most likely comparisons. Calgary’s Dougie Hamilton got $5.75MM per season last year, but he also plays the much scarcer right side, and Calgary traded assets for him. It would have been fairly embarrassing had he not been signed quickly. The Ducks will play hardball, but if they get Lindholm at under that price, it’ll be well worth it. Projection: 5 years, $25MM
  • Jacob Trouba – Trouba is 22 and well regarded around the league, but the reported debate over role will hurt him. As mentioned before, restricted free agents are paid usually when teams want to buy years of unrestricted free agency. If the Jets don’t believe that Trouba is ready for an increased role, it’s unlikely they’re in a rush to pay him for it. This has the looks of something bitter developing, but it’s most likely  he’ll get some sort of bridge deal. Projection: 2 years, $8MM

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