PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2021-22 season and beyond with contract statuses as of the beginning of the year.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Anaheim Ducks

Current Cap Hit: $70,352,981 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Simon Benoit ($809K this season)
D Jamie Drysdale ($925K through 2022-23)
F Trevor Zegras ($925K through 2022-23)

Potential Bonuses:
Benoit: $82.5K
Drysdale: $850K
Zegras: $850K
Total: $1.7825MM

Zegras has certainly outperformed his entry-level deal.  While they’re still sheltering him a little, he’s effectively Anaheim’s top offensive center now and a centerpiece to build around for the future.  We’ve seen teams move quickly to try to sign these players to max-term contracts and it stands to reason that new GM Pat Verbeek will be doing so here.  Montreal’s recent extension for Nick Suzuki (eight years at just under $8MM per season) is one that will inevitably come up in those discussions.  As for the incentives, he has a chance at reaching all four of his ‘A’ bonuses but other than time on ice, the other ones should come down to the wire.

Drysdale’s first full NHL season has had some ups and downs but more of the former than the latter which is good for a 19-year-old blueliner.  He’s another player Verbeek may want to sign to a long-term contract but unless Drysdale takes a big step forward next season, it may be difficult to find a price point where both sides are content with the risk (paying too much too soon for Anaheim and giving up on potentially higher earnings for Drysdale).  A short-term bridge deal could fall in the $4MM range while a long-term pact could be double that.  The youngster has a chance of getting two or three of his ‘A’ bonuses.  As for Benoit, he’s logging light minutes in a depth role and players like that often sign their second contract for a fairly low AAV in exchange for one-way money.  He’s a strong candidate for that type of deal.

Signed Through 2021-22, Non-Entry-Level

F Sam Carrick ($750K, UFA)
F Nicolas Deslauriers ($1MM, UFA)
F Ryan Getzlaf ($3MM, UFA)
F Ryan Kesler ($6.875MM, UFA)
D Jacob Larsson ($1.2MM, RFA)
D Hampus Lindholm ($5.206MM, UFA)
F Isac Lundestrom ($874K, RFA)
D Josh Manson ($4.1MM, UFA)
F Sonny Milano ($1.7MM, RFA)
F Rickard Rakell ($3.789MM, UFA)
F Buddy Robinson ($750K, UFA)
F Sam Steel ($874K, RFA)

Potential Bonuses:
Getzlaf: $1.5MM

Let’s get Kesler out of the way first.  He’s on injured reserve but is eligible for LTIR since he isn’t coming back and his playing days are over.  They don’t need to make that placement unless they’re in need of cap space and they’re not going to need that.  There has been some talk that a team already in LTIR may be interested in him to expand their LTIR pool so that’s something to keep an eye on.

Getzlaf has had a nice bounce-back season.  He still isn’t scoring much but his playmaking is still making him one of their better offensive contributors.  He’ll be 37 in the spring and will likely be going year-to-year from here on out which will keep him eligible for incentives as he has now.  A similar contract for him in the summer is certainly reasonable.  Rakell is an interesting pending UFA when it comes to the trade deadline.  He has two 30-goal seasons under his belt but 2017-18 was the last time he scored that many times; it’s also the last time he scored 20.  That makes his value a little difficult to pin down.  His career numbers say he’s a scoring winger that’s owed a nice raise but his more recent ones have him more of a second-line player in line for a smaller raise to around $4.5MM or so.

Despite suffering an upper-body injury that has kept him out for nearly a month, Milano already is having a career year despite his role not changing all that much.  He’s eligible for salary arbitration with a $1.8MM qualifying offer.  His track record isn’t the best which should limit an award but an extra million or so should be achievable.  Deslauriers is one of the last true enforcers in the league.  The need for them is dying down but he plays well enough to log a regular shift which should allow him to get a similar contract this summer.  Robinson and Carrick are serviceable role players but neither have done enough to command much more than the minimum at the NHL level.

Steel and Lundestrom both signed their qualifying offers as bridge contracts to try to prove themselves.  It has worked well for Lundestrom as he has become a regular in the middle six while playing full-time down the middle.  He isn’t producing a lot so he’s not going to want a long-term contract this summer but with arbitration eligibility, doubling his AAV is a realistic goal.  It hasn’t worked well for Steel, however.  He hasn’t produced enough to move into a more prominent role and he’s not the type of player that thrives in a limited role.  He’ll get a small raise but probably not much more than that.

Lindholm remains an under the radar number two defender.  His offensive numbers rarely stand out but he’s no slouch at that end while being very strong defensively.   At 28, he’s still young enough to command a max-term deal and with the role he plays, he can add a couple of million on his current price tag.  Manson is another significant rental on the back end.  However, he hasn’t been able to duplicate the offensive output he had in 2017-18; he basically has as many points in parts of four seasons combined since then.  That will limit his market somewhat.  He’s still physical, strong in his own end, and a right-shot defender so there will be plenty of interest but it would be surprising to see his price tag go much larger than $5MM.  Larsson has spent most of the season in the minors but gets a mention here as Anaheim can’t clear his full contract off the books when he’s with San Diego.  They may attempt to get him to sign for less than his qualifying offer to keep him around but otherwise, he’s a non-tender candidate.

Signed Through 2022-23

F Max Comtois ($2.0375MM, RFA)
F Derek Grant ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Josh Mahura ($750K, RFA)
D Kevin Shattenkirk ($3.9MM, UFA)
G Anthony Stolarz ($950K, UFA)
F Troy Terry ($1.45MM, RFA)

A year ago, Comtois was in the middle of a career year and led the Ducks in scoring.  It looked like he had established himself as a capable top-six power forward but the bridge deal showed some uncertainty as to whether he could play like that on a long-term basis.  That hesitance proved to be accurate as Comtois has struggled mightily this season and has gone back to more of a reserve role.  Lots can change but for now, a long-term contract in 2023 seems unlikely.  Instead, a one-year deal or a medium-term pact that buys out one or two UFA years may make more sense.  Grant is a serviceable depth center that’s making too much for the role he fills.  He should be able to get another contract after this one but it should be closer to the $1MM mark.  As for Terry, he has clearly impressed this season and is Anaheim’s leading scorer by a considerable margin.  All of a sudden, he has gone from a role player to a top liner and if he can keep this up, a long-term contract in the $6MM to $7MM range would become a serious option.

Shattenkirk has had a much better second season in Anaheim than his first, leading their defensemen in points while logging his usual 20 minutes per game.  He’ll be 34 at the end of this deal and will be able to sign a multi-year deal without any 35+ risk.  Another three-year pact could be done around this price point with the expectation that he will need to play a bit of a lesser role by the end of it.  Mahura is a low-cost depth piece and will need to play his way into a regular spot in the lineup to have a chance to earn a bigger deal even with salary arbitration rights at that time.

Stolarz had been more of a depth goalie in the past which made it understandable that he took a low-cost two-year deal to give him some stability.  However, he has done pretty well this season and should have himself positioned for a bigger deal in 2023.  His path is somewhat similar to Laurent Brossoit who inked a contract with a $2.325MM AAV last summer.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Adam Henrique ($5.85MM, UFA)
F Max Jones ($1.295MM, RFA)
F Jakob Silfverberg ($5.25MM, UFA)

Henrique has had a nice bounce-back year after clearing waivers at one point last season.  He has adapted well to playing on the wing and has become a quality part of Anaheim’s top six.  He’s still not providing a great return on his cap hit and his next contract will undoubtedly be considerably less than this one but compared to how things looked last season, this is a nice step in the right direction.  The same can’t be said for Silfverberg.  He’s struggling to score despite heavy minutes and even his possession numbers aren’t pretty.  The 31-year-old is better off as a bottom-six piece at this point and that’s a pretty high price tag for someone that is best suited now to be a checker.  Jones is in the first season of a three-year bridge deal but has played just twice due to a torn pectoral muscle.  That makes this season a write-off but there’s still enough time for him to outperform this deal.  He’ll be owed a $1.5MM qualifier in 2024.

Read more

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2021-22 season and beyond with contract statuses as of the beginning of the year.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Arizona Coyotes

Current Cap Hit: $74,484,534 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Barrett Hayton ($864K this season)
D Janis Moser ($887K through 2023-24)
G Karel Vejmelka ($842.5K this season)

Potential Bonuses:
Hayton: $2.15MM
Moser: $82.5K
Vejmelka: $82.5K
Total: $2.315MM

Hayton has not lived up to his draft billing, one that felt like an overdraft at the time when he went fifth overall on the back of being a center in a draft where there weren’t many centers ranked high.  He’s averaging nearly 17 minutes this season but hasn’t done much with them.  There’s no way a long-term contract will be on the table in the summer; he’ll be looking at a bridge deal and a one-year pact wouldn’t be surprising at a little over his current AAV.

Moser was somewhat of a surprise second-rounder in the last draft in his third year of eligibility but he is a quality late-bloomer as he has worked his way into a regular role on Arizona’s third pairing over the last couple of months.  It’s a role that shouldn’t make him overly pricey if he stays there over the next two seasons although with how quickly he has worked his way into the lineup, it’s certainly fair to think he could still have another level in him.

Vejmelka (who was once a Nashville prospect that went unsigned) went from a candidate to battle for the backup spot to their full-fledged starter fairly quickly.  His overall numbers aren’t great but he has shown enough to get a multi-year deal this summer to remain part of the tandem for the Coyotes for a little while yet.  At 25, he’s already arbitration-eligible although, with a limited track record, that won’t help a lot.  He should still be able to at least double his current AAV and if a third season is tacked on, a cap hit around the $2MM range is reasonable.

Signed Through 2021-22, Non-Entry-Level

F Jay Beagle ($3.2MM, UFA)
F Travis Boyd ($750K, UFA)
D Kyle Capobianco ($775K, RFA)
F Lawson Crouse ($1.533MM, RFA)
F Ryan Dzingel ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Loui Eriksson ($6MM, UFA)
F Christian Fischer ($1MM, RFA)
F Alex Galchenyuk ($750K, RFA)
G Carter Hutton ($750K, UFA)
F Dmitrij Jaskin ($3.2MM, UFA)
F Johan Larsson ($1.4MM, UFA)
D Ilya Lyubushkin ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Phil Kessel ($6.8MM, UFA)*
D Dysin Mayo ($750K, RFA)
F Riley Nash ($750K, UFA)
F Liam O’Brien ($750K, UFA)
F Antoine Roussel ($3MM, UFA)
D Anton Stralman ($5.5MM, UFA)
G Scott Wedgewood ($825K, UFA)

*-Toronto is retaining an additional $1.2MM of Kessel’s salary

Yes, the overwhelming majority of Arizona’s roster is only signed through this season and that’s by design.  There are some notable players among the long list of fillers though.

Kessel hasn’t been able to score much this season – few have for the Coyotes – but he has become a better playmaker along the way.  He’s a strong candidate to be moved at the deadline but with only a $1MM base salary, Arizona should be in no rush to move him as whatever contract they take to offset his AAV will undoubtedly cost more in salary dollars.  Kessel won’t be able to command anywhere near his $8MM price tag on the open market but as a serviceable secondary scorer, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him in the $5MM range when all is said and done.  Worth noting is that he turns 35 in October which means he isn’t subject to the 35-plus classification, giving interested teams a chance to work out a multi-year deal without any risk.

Among the RFA forwards, Crouse is heading for a nice pay raise.  He has been given a much bigger role this season and has made the most of it, scoring at close to a 20-goal pace.  As a power forward with a bit of offensive touch, there has been considerable trade interest in him but if he sticks around, he’s the type of player where it may not be surprising if GM Bill Armstrong tries to do a long-term deal in the high $4MM/low $5MM range.  Fischer has seen his production drop sharply from his rookie season to the point where he is more of a fourth liner instead of someone believed to be part of their long-term plans a few years ago.  His qualifying offer is just over $1.125MM but he has arbitration rights.  A non-tender isn’t a guarantee but it’s a possibility if they can’t work out a new deal around his current price tag.

Jaskin is an interesting case – his contract made little sense based on his previous NHL history and while he produced overseas, it didn’t translate to the type of top-six role anyone was hoping for.  Based on his history as an energy player, he could get a bit more than $1MM in free agency this summer but a trip back to the KHL where a bigger contract likely would be waiting for him is definitely an option as well.  Boyd hasn’t had much interest in free agency in the past but his numbers this season could boost his market to the point where he can land a bigger deal and a multi-year commitment.

Many of the other UFA forwards – including the high-priced ones – are depth pieces and role players that are likely looking at something around $1MM or less in free agency.  Several of them just went through the process last offseason with low levels of interest while some of their recently acquired players should have some interest at a much lower price tag (Roussel as an energy winger and Beagle as a faceoff specialist, for example).  Those players, meanwhile, will likely be either re-signed or replaced by others willing to play for a similar amount.

On the back end, Stralman was acquired in a salary dump from Florida and had a chance to play a bigger role to rebuild some value.  He has been decent for the Coyotes but nowhere near the level of a $5.5MM player.  He’ll be 36 before next season starts and is someone that may have to go year-to-year from here at a price tag closer to half of what he’s making now.  Lyubushkin continues to be a physical, stay-at-home defender and the fact he’s logging over 18 minutes a game will help his value.  A deal similar to Jani Hakanpaa’s with Dallas (three years, $1.5MM AAV) should be attainable; while the price would be only a small increase, the security would be nice for someone that has gone year-to-year since coming to North America.

In goal, Wedgewood has helped his value since Arizona claimed him off waivers.  He’s still in the lower end of backups and would be a third-string option on a lot of teams though so while he has earned a raise, it will probably be a small one.  Something around $1MM – an amount that can be buried in the minors without any residual cap charge – could be attainable and would be a nice raise for someone who has never had a one-way contract before.

Signed Through 2022-23

D Shayne Gostisbehere ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Andrew Ladd ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Conor Timmins ($850K, RFA)

Ladd was one of many salary dumps the Coyotes took on last offseason with Arizona getting three draft picks (including the one used on Moser) for their troubles.  He has been able to hold down a regular spot in the lineup but that’s about all.  At this point, it’s hard to see Ladd getting another contract when this one is up but if he does, it’ll be very close to the league minimum.

Gostisbehere has had quite a nice bounce-back season with the Coyotes.  After being more of a depth piece with the Flyers, he has again become one of the higher-scoring defensemen in the league, ranking in a tie for 16th overall.  If he can maintain that pace for the rest of this deal, he should have a sizable market in 2023 with a shot at a small raise, something that didn’t seem feasible last summer.  As for Timmins, he was a key part of the Darcy Kuemper trade but his season came to an end quite early due to a knee injury.  At this point, a one-year deal for 2023-24 seems probable unless he’s able to establish himself as a go-to defender next season but with just 39 games of NHL experience, that’s a tough ask.

Read more

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2021-22 season and beyond with contract statuses as of the beginning of the year.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Boston Bruins

Current Cap Hit: $80,505,704 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Oskar Steen (one year, $809K)
G Jeremy Swayman (two years, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Steen: $82.5K
Swayman: $125K
Total: $0.2075MM

Steen has spent a good chunk of the season in the minors but has earned a regular spot in the lineup in recent weeks.  It’s his first extended stint of NHL action and a half-season of playing time won’t be enough to yield a long-term deal.  A short-term pact that’s around this AAV but is a one-way deal instead of two-way would make a lot of sense for both sides.

Swayman is currently in the minors but played well in the first half of the season for the Bruins before being a roster casualty.  Depending on how his bonuses are structured, that may be a number that has to be kept in mind for deadline spending with an eye on trying to stay that far under the cap.  If he’s a regular next season in a similar platoon role that he had to start this one, he could push for a bridge contract that’s around double his current price tag.

Signed Through 2021-22, Non-Entry-Level

F Patrice Bergeron ($6.875MM, UFA)
F Anton Blidh ($750K, UFA)
F Jake DeBrusk ($3.675MM, RFA)
F Curtis Lazar ($800K, UFA)
G Tuukka Rask ($1MM, UFA)
D Jakub Zboril ($725K, RFA)

Bergeron’s contract is the big one for the Bruins and GM Don Sweeney to contend with in the coming months.  He’s not really slowing down offensively as he continues to produce at a top-line rate.  He’s still one of the top defensive centers in the league.  He’s still well-respected as their captain.  Generally, this combination can result in a contract that could push upwards of $10MM.  No one really expects that to be the case here.  Boston has had an ability to get several of their core veterans to take a little below market value to stick around and there’s little reason to think they won’t try that here.  Accordingly, it makes Bergeron’s next deal a little tricky to peg – he could easily get considerably more on the open market and it wouldn’t be entirely shocking if he took a little less, especially if he can get an extra year or two tacked on.

DeBrusk is someone who has seen his value drop substantially over the last year and a half.  His qualifying offer is $4.41MM and no one is going to pay that which means he’ll be non-tendered and looking for something around the $2MM mark on a one-year deal in the hopes of rebuilding his value.  Lazar won’t ever live up to his draft billing but he has established himself as a reliable fourth liner that can play center and the wing.  His market shouldn’t be huge but a contract closer to the $1MM mark is doable.  Blidh should be able to get a one-way contract over the summer but with him being more of a role player than someone who’s going to play every night, his cap hit should still remain near the minimum.

Zboril’s injury trouble isn’t helping his case and at this point, he’s likely looking at another deal at or close to the minimum.  He could still become a regular on the third pairing but until that happens, the seven-figure contracts are going to be hard to come by.

Rask was true to his word, signing for just above the minimum to work within Boston’s cap structure.  Is he willing to do that again?  It can’t be ruled out and considering he wasn’t interested in going elsewhere this season, it’s fair to surmise it once again will be Boston or nothing.

Signed Through 2022-23

D Connor Clifton ($1MM, UFA)
F Nick Foligno ($3.8MM, UFA)
F Trent Frederic ($1.05MM, RFA)
F Erik Haula ($2.375MM, UFA)
D John Moore ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Tomas Nosek ($1.75MM, UFA)
F David Pastrnak ($6.67MM, UFA)
F Craig Smith ($3.1MM, UFA)
F Chris Wagner ($1.35MM, UFA)

Sweeney’s ability to get veterans to take below-market contracts is really going to get tested with Pastrnak.  At the time he signed his current deal, he wasn’t yet the high-scoring star he has become now.  Top-end wingers can still command significant money on the open market and it’s not crazy to think Pastrnak could land another couple million or more per season on a max-term contract; he’ll hit the open market at 27 in the prime of his career.

Fortunately for the Bruins, they have enough veterans on expiring contracts to help offset any increase to Pastrnak.  Foligno has had a tough season that certainly hasn’t helped his value and if that continues, he’ll be closer to half of what he’s making now.  Smith hasn’t been able to be the consistent secondary scorer they hoped he’d be based on his time with Nashville so it’s hard to forecast a bump in salary for him.  At the rate he’s going, he could still get close to his current price tag though.  Haula’s contract seemed a little lower than expected and he has played at a similar rate compared to his last couple of seasons.  Centers are always in demand and as long as he can do well on the third line, he should generate enough interest for a small increase.  Nosek is who he is at this point, a lower-scoring third liner that does enough defensively and at the faceoff dot to make him a quality depth player.  Another contract in this range is achievable for him.  Wagner has spent the entire season in the minors but still carries a lingering $225K charge which will also be the case next year if he is waived and clears again.  Frederic has been able to hold down a spot on the fourth line but unless he can play his way into a bigger role by the end of next season, he won’t be able to get much more than his $1.15MM qualifying offer.

Moore’s contract hasn’t worked out, plain and simple, as he has struggled to stay healthy and has had his struggles in Boston’s lineup when he has had the chance to play.  At this point, he’s a possible buyout candidate.  Clifton is a capable depth defender that can hold his own on the third pairing when called upon.  Those types of players are rarely in high demand but as long as he’s willing to sign for a similar price, he should have a few suitors from teams looking to shore up their depth.

Signed Through 2023-24

D Derek Forbort ($3MM, UFA)
D Matt Grzelcyk ($3.688MM, UFA)
D Mike Reilly ($3MM, UFA)

Grzelcyk hasn’t been able to the big step forward that the Bruins were hoping for when they signed him to this contract but he remains a capable part of their second pairing.  He chips in enough at the offensive end to still provide a good return on this contract and he should be in line for a small raise for his first test of the open market.  Forbort isn’t too far removed from being a 20-minute player, a mark he has hit four times which helped him earn this contract.  With Boston, he has been a bit more of a role player so far but as a fourth or fifth defender most nights, he has provided reasonable value so far.  He’ll be 32 when he gets back to free agency and if he’s on the third pairing more consistently, his next contract should come in a little lower than this one.  The same could be said for Reilly who hasn’t been quite as impactful as he was when he joined Boston in a late-season trade a year ago.  His production has gone closer to normal levels although his positive possession stats help offset that a little bit.  He’ll need to be more like the player he was in 2020-21 to have a chance at getting a similar contract in 2024.

Read more

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2021-22 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Buffalo Sabres

Current Cap Hit: $69,244,521 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Dylan Cozens (two years, $894K)
F Peyton Krebs (three years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Cozens: $850K
Krebs: $412.5K
Total: $1.2625MM

While Cozens hasn’t been lighting it up in his sophomore season, he has taken some positive strides and has played his way into a bigger role.  That said, it’s not the type of performance that is going to set him up for a long-term second contract and he’ll have some work to do in the second half if he wants a shot at hitting any of his ‘A’ bonuses.  A bridge deal in the $3MM range looks like a possibility if his slow but steady development continues.  Krebs was a key part of the Jack Eichel trade and his first handful of NHL games haven’t been great.  That said, he still figures to be a key part of their long-term plans and with such a limited sample size to judge off of, it’s way too early to be able to reasonably forecast his next contract.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Craig Anderson ($750K, UFA)
D Johnny Boychuk ($6MM, UFA)
D Jacob Bryson ($889K, RFA)
D Will Butcher ($2.823MM, UFA)*
F Drake Caggiula ($750K, UFA)
F Cody Eakin ($2.25MM, UFA)
D Robert Hagg ($1.6MM, UFA)
F John Hayden ($750K, UFA)
F Vinnie Hinostroza ($1.05MM, UFA)
D Colin Miller ($3.875MM, UFA)
F Victor Olofsson ($3.05MM, RFA)
D/F Mark Pysyk ($900K, UFA)
G Malcolm Subban ($850K, UFA)
G Dustin Tokarski ($725K, UFA)

*-New Jersey is retaining another $910K of Butcher’s contract.

Following Olofsson’s somewhat surprising rookie season two years ago, they opted for a bridge contract to see if it was a sign of things to come or just him getting hit at the right time.  Today, there’s still some question about what he’ll be worth.  He’s doing well enough to be qualified at $3.25MM which would be a small jump on his $3.05MM AAV but at the same time, GM Kevyn Adams may not be ready to commit to a long-term deal yet.  As a result, a second bridge contract makes sense but with him being two years away from UFA eligibility, it’ll have to just be a one-year deal.  He’s eligible for arbitration and if they were to look at a long-term pact that bought out some UFA years, something in the $5MM range may be required.

Eakin’s contract from a year ago came as a bit of a surprise after a quiet 2019-20 season and his value certainly hasn’t improved since then.  He can still kill penalties and win faceoffs but the role he has is usually valued at closer to $1MM than $2MM.  Hinostroza is getting a bigger opportunity with Buffalo than he had over the last few years and it was a wise decision as he’s hovering near the half-a-point-per-game mark, his best average since 2018-19.  Has he done enough to show he’s worthy of a middle-six role on a better team, however?  If yes, he could come close to doubling his price tag.  If not, his raise for next season may be minimal.  Hayden and Caggiula are low-cost role players and are likely to stay at or close to the league minimum on their next deals.

Boychuk was traded to Buffalo just before the Eichel trade to allow the Sabres to stay above the cap floor but his playing days are done.  The addition of Butcher was an interesting one as it gave him a chance to rebuild his value.  That hasn’t happened as he has largely been limited to a role on the third pairing when he has played.  Still, his rookie season should give him a reasonable market as some will view him as a bounce-back candidate so he could come in around half of his $3.733MM AAV on his next contract.

Hagg is one of Buffalo’s more intriguing rental trade candidates over the next couple of months as a physical, stay-at-home defender that can upgrade a third pairing.  There’s still a good market for those players so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him surpass the $2MM mark in the summer.  Bryson isn’t putting up many points but the fact he’s averaging nearly 20 minutes a game will help since he’s arbitration-eligible this summer.  A one-year deal should earn him somewhere around $1.5MM but a multi-year deal could be an option here around the $2MM AAV range.  Pysyk has had to settle for one-year contracts the last two seasons and that will likely happen again although he, too, isn’t far off from 20 minutes a night which could push his value past the $1MM mark which would be an improvement on his last two deals.

None of Buffalo’s goaltenders are in a position to command much of a raise.  Subban cleared waivers in training camp and has struggled in limited action this season which will have teams viewing him as a third-stringer over an NHL backup and will price him accordingly.  Anderson settled for the minimum for this season and while he played well early, his injury situation offsets that.  As for Tokarski, his AAV will go up by default since it’s below the minimum salary but he’s another goalie that’s more viewed as organizational depth than a full-fledged NHL regular.  That will keep him around the minimum as well.

Two Years Remaining

F Rasmus Asplund ($825K, RFA)
F Anders Bjork ($1.6MM, RFA)
F Kyle Okposo ($6MM, UFA)
F Tage Thompson ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Zemgus Girgensons ($2.2MM, UFA)

Okposo is part of that ill-fated 2016 UFA class and he hasn’t lived up to that contract.  That said, he’s very quietly having a pretty good season and has produced at a pace that would be close to his best year with Buffalo.  It doesn’t mean he’s going to get a lot of interest two summers from now though.  He’ll be looking at something closer to a quarter of his current rate unless this production sustains itself for the next season and a half.  Girgensons just hasn’t been able to produce with enough consistency to justify an above-average contract for someone whose best suited to play on the fourth line.  There was some hope of late-blooming upside before but he’ll be 29 at the end of this deal.  If the improvement hasn’t come by then, it’s probably not coming at all.

As for the restricted free agents, Bjork wasn’t able to sustain his late-season uptick in points after being acquired from Boston.  At this point, with a $1.8MM qualifying offer needed, he looks like a non-tender candidate with his UFA market value being around half of that number.  Thompson, on the other hand, is on an upward trajectory.  His offensive production has finally come around and his combination of size and skill make him a candidate for a long-term deal with how much teams are willing to spend in the hopes of keeping a power forward in the fold.  As long as his scoring burst isn’t just a short-term thing, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he triples his $1.6MM qualifying offer.  As for Asplund, he has provided a decent return on close to a league minimum salary this season.  A similar showing in the second half of this season and next could put him in the $2MM range on his next deal.  All three of these players are arbitration-eligible in 2023.

Three Years Remaining

D Rasmus Dahlin ($6MM, RFA)
D Henri Jokiharju ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Casey Mittelstadt ($2.5MM, RFA)

Mittelstadt hasn’t been able to stay healthy this season which makes it hard to make any early forecast on this contract.  If he can secure a regular top-six role by then, that should at least have him in line to push beyond his $2.6MM qualifying offer in his final year of RFA eligibility.  A long-term contract that buys out some UFA time could push him past the $4MM mark, more if his production is strong over the next two seasons.

The decision to bridge Dahlin made sense as the 2018 top pick hasn’t been able to become that elite number one defender just yet but was still showing some positive development signs.  If he can get to that level by the end of this deal, he’d earn well beyond his $7.2MM qualifying offer and he’ll only have one RFA season remaining in 2024.  The bridge buys them some time but at some point, a long-term pact will need to be worked out.  Jokiharju has turned into a capable second-pairing player in Buffalo and should be a useful secondary piece of their long-term future core.  That should have him pushing for more than $4MM on his next contract if he can pick up his production as this deal goes on.  Again, he’ll only have the one RFA year left at this time.

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PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2021-22 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Calgary Flames

Current Cap Hit: $79,991,525 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

No regulars in Calgary’s lineup are on entry-level deals.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Johnny Gaudreau ($6.75MM, UFA)
D Erik Gudbranson ($1.95MM, UFA)
F Trevor Lewis ($800K, UFA)
D Oliver Kylington ($750K, RFA)
F Andrew Mangiapane ($2.325MM, RFA)
F Tyler Pitlick ($1.75MM, UFA)
F Brad Richardson ($800K, UFA)
F Brett Ritchie ($900K, UFA)
D Michael Stone ($750K, UFA)
F Matthew Tkachuk ($7MM, RFA)
D Nikita Zadorov ($3.75MM, UFA)

Gaudreau is obviously the UFA to watch for here.  After a couple of quieter years, he has bounced back somewhat this season and is averaging just over a point per game, a mark he has only reached twice in his career.  That will certainly give his value a boost at the right time.  There are two big questions here – what is he worth and is it worth it for Calgary to pay that?  He’ll be 29 to start next season so a max-term contract isn’t out of the question (eight years for the Flames, seven for everyone else) with the last couple being a little cheaper in salary to lower the AAV.  Still, it’s quite possible that Gaudreau pushes past the $8MM range and since he is part of a core group that has largely underachieved, should Calgary willingly pay a fair bit more to keep it together?  If Gaudreau wants top dollar, I’m not sure it comes from the Flames.

The other big one to watch for obviously is Tkachuk.  He’s subject to the old qualifying offer rule which means a $9MM offer needs to be tendered to retain his rights.  It’s hard to see him willingly taking a long-term deal at that price point so GM Brad Treliving will need to go higher than that to stop the 24-year-old from taking the offer and heading straight to UFA eligibility in 2023.  Another RFA in line for a significant raise is Mangiapane, their top goal-getter this season.  With arbitration eligibility and potentially a 30-goal year under his belt (he’s more than halfway there at 18), it’s not unrealistic to think he has a shot at doubling his current price tag.  If Calgary pays all three of those, they could be looking at adding $7MM or more just to retain their current forwards let alone add to the group.

As for the other forwards, Pitlick hasn’t had a good season and has struggled since coming over from Seattle.  He’ll likely have to settle for something closer to the $1MM range next year as a result.  Ritchie, Lewis, and Richardson have all recently gone through the UFA market and deals at just above the minimum were all they were able to get.  None have done enough to drastically improve their fortunes much beyond what they’re making now.

On the back end, Zadorov hasn’t quite fit in as well as Calgary hoped as he has been scratched at times and on the third pairing for most of the year.  That’s only going to hurt his value instead of the change of scenery from Chicago helping it.  His value is tough to peg as someone in his role should be making less than half of what he currently is but it still wouldn’t be surprising if he wound up with a deal in the $2.75MM or more range in the summer.  Gudbranson continues to be a physical player on the third pairing and after taking a cut last summer, another small dip is likely.  Kylington will be in a much different situation as he has been one of Calgary’s best offensive blueliners this season and will have arbitration eligibility this time around.  Some sheltered minutes could play a factor in a hearing but him landing something around $2MM is probably doable.  Stone is a depth player and has been for a few years now and he’ll either re-sign for the minimum or they’ll find another depth player willing to play for that salary.

Two Years Remaining

F Milan Lucic ($5.25MM, UFA)*
D Connor Mackey ($913K, RFA)
F Sean Monahan ($6.375MM, UFA)
D Juuso Valimaki ($1.55MM, RFA)
G Daniel Vladar ($750K, RFA)

*-Edmonton is retaining another $750K on Lucic’s deal

Monahan has seen his value dip in recent years and this season hasn’t gone particularly well either.  He’s not the number one center they hoped he’d be but lately, he hasn’t even been a second-line pivot.  If Monahan can get back to that level, a contract that’s only a bit below his current AAV is still manageable.  However, if his current trend continues, something in the $3.5MM to $4MM range becomes more realistic.  Lucic is nowhere near the player he once was and is now more of a role player (although with eight goals this season, he’s still contributing a bit offensively).  If he gets another contract beyond this one, it will be more commensurate with a fourth liner.

Valimaki’s bridge deal seemed reasonable at the time but after hardly playing in the first two months of the year, he’s in the minors.  Waivers will take that option off the table next season but if he’s still barely playing at that time, his $1.86MM qualifying offer could be an issue.  Mackey is on a one-way deal which warrants at least a mention here although he has been in AHL Stockton all season.  Again, that won’t be an option next year without waivers which could earn him a spot and if he can do that, he could be kept around the $1MM mark.

Vladar has impressed in his first full-time NHL role, albeit in sporadic minutes as the backup goaltender.  With how head coach Darryl Sutter is using Vladar, it’s going to be hard for him to command high-end backup money two years from now although something beyond the $2MM mark is certainly a possibility.

Three Years Remaining

F Mikael Backlund ($5.35MM, UFA)
F Dillon Dube ($2.3MM, RFA)
D Noah Hanifin ($4.95MM, UFA)
F Elias Lindholm ($4.85MM, UFA)
D Chris Tanev ($4.5MM, UFA)

Backlund has been a reliable secondary scorer for Calgary while being a key piece defensively for most of the contract.  The scoring part hasn’t been there this season, however, and with Monahan and Lindholm also in the fold, he looks like a possible candidate to be moved if Treliving wants to shake things up.  Given the demand for centers, there will still be a good market for him.  Lindholm has become quite the bargain since coming over from Carolina as he has become the consistent scoring threat that he wasn’t able to be with the Hurricanes while transitioning to playing back down the middle full-time.  Assuming he can continue on that trajectory for the next few years, he could land a few extra million per year in 2024.  Dube had gradually taken some steps forward over the last couple of seasons, convincing Calgary to give him this three-year deal last offseason.  The early returns haven’t been great as he has been more of an energy player than a secondary producer but there’s still time for him to turn it around.

Hanifin isn’t a top-pairing defender as his draft stock suggested he would be when he went fifth overall in 2015 but he’s a quality top-four player who can log some heavy minutes.  He’ll hit the open market at 27 in the prime of his career and should be able to command close to a max-term contract with a fairly significant bump in pay at that time.  Tanev, on the other hand, is in the back end of his career.  While he remains a quality defender, his injury history and a lack of production make this a contract that might not age well over the last few seasons.

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PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2021-22 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Carolina Hurricanes

Current Cap Hit: $83,873,123 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Seth Jarvis (three years, $894K)
F Martin Necas (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses:
Jarvis: $500K
Necas: $537.5K
Total: $1.0375MM

Jarvis was in a bit of a tough spot to start the season – he couldn’t be sent to the minors but he wasn’t seeing regular action with Carolina either.  However, he has worked his way into more of a regular role with the team happily going past the nine-game plateau to burn the first year of his deal.  It’s hard to forecast his next deal with him just starting out and from a bonus perspective, it’s unlikely he reaches any of his incentives.

Necas has seen his production tick back a little this year although with 19 points in 31 games, he’s still doing well.  He’s the type of player that Carolina may want to try to sign to a deal that buys out a couple of years of UFA eligibility but the quieter platform year may actually make that tougher as it should make Necas be more agreeable to a bridge deal, allowing him to boost his value before locking in a long-term pact.  He has three ‘A’ bonuses in his deal and is on pace to hit one of those right now although a few others are within reach as well.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Ethan Bear ($2MM, RFA)
D Ian Cole ($2.9MM, UFA)
D Anthony DeAngelo ($1MM, RFA)
F Jesperi Kotkaniemi ($6.1MM, RFA)
F Steven Lorentz ($725K, RFA)
F Nino Niederreiter ($5.25MM, UFA)
D/F Brendan Smith ($800K, UFA)
F Derek Stepan ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Vincent Trocheck ($4.75MM, UFA)

Kotkaniemi’s offer sheet was one of the headlines of the offseason as it’s rare that one is tendered and rarer that it isn’t matched.  However, it was enough of an overpayment for Montreal to accept the draft pick compensation instead.  The key word is overpayment though.  The 21-year-old hasn’t produced at a level that would warrant a $6.1MM qualifying offer and while there is a window to take a player to arbitration at a lower rate (85%), that’s still a particularly high salary.  Accordingly, it stands to reason that Carolina will try to sign Kotkaniemi to a long-term deal in the coming weeks and months, one that may come in a little lower than his current price tag with an argument that it would be better than running the risk of a non-tender in the summer.

Niederreiter has shown flashes of being a top offensive player over the past few years but hasn’t been able to sustain it.  This season, he has been on the third line at times and that’s not going to help his market value.  A small decrease on his current AAV is a likelier outcome than a small raise at this point.  That shouldn’t be the case for Trocheck who stands to be one of the top centers to hit the open market if he’s still unsigned by July.  There is always a premium paid for those players and it wouldn’t be too surprising to see him at $6.5MM or more on a long-term deal.  Stepan is still a capable fourth liner but won’t be able to use his prior reputation to boost his value and it’s unlikely he’ll wind up with more money on his next deal although he should be able to come close.  Lorentz will get a small raise on his AAV by default but this is a spot Carolina will need to keep close to the minimum – a one-way deal is doable but it should still be around the $750K mark.

Cole has been a quality veteran shutdown defender for several years although he’s starting to slow down.  He’ll have no problems finding another contract but after taking a pay cut last summer, he may need to do so again this coming summer.  Bear has been decent with his new team but hasn’t been able to move into the top four like they’d have hoped.  He’s owed a $2.4MM qualifying offer and he should get it but he’ll have a hard time making a case that he’s worth substantially more.  Smith has carved out a niche as a depth defender that can play up front as well and that will keep him in the league for a few years but they will be seasons where he’s near the league minimum as he is now.

DeAngelo is going to be one of the more interesting RFA cases to watch for.  As much as he had to sign for cheap on the open market in the summer, he’s two years removed from a 53-point campaign and is producing close to a point per game level this season.  Those are numbers that will carry a lot of weight if he makes it to an arbitration hearing which is the probable outcome if Carolina tenders him a qualifying offer.  Is that a risk they want to take knowing that there are several other core players that need to be re-signed or replaced?  If not, they’ll have to make a big push to try to sign him before the tender deadline and with all of the off-ice factors to consider, there’s a very wide range of what he could sign for.

Two Years Remaining

G Frederik Andersen ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Jesper Fast ($2MM, UFA)
D Jake Gardiner ($4.05MM, UFA)
G Antti Raanta ($2MM, UFA)
F Jordan Staal ($6MM, UFA)

Staal has always been a quality two-way center and while he may not have always produced at a top-six level, he has done well living up to the price tag of this contract over time.  Things haven’t gone too well this season, however, as he has slowed down and his production has tailed off.  He won’t have any problems getting another contract two years from now but at that time, it’ll be more commensurate with third-line production which could result in his salary being nearly cut in half.  Fast’s contract seemed cheap at the time and still is now for someone that’s a decent secondary scorer in the middle six.  I’d predict that he could land a contract that’s higher than that two years from now but I’d have said that two years ago as well when he opted to take this deal.

Gardiner is out for the season with hip and back trouble and is on LTIR.  At this point, it wouldn’t be surprising to see that be the case next year as well.

It took more than a decade for Andersen to play for the team that originally drafted him but he has been worth the wait as he has been one of the top goalies in the league so far this season.  Carolina’s playing style is a goalie-friendly one but his level of play has been better than most starters at a lower cost.  Two years of that could give him one more shot at a bigger payday somewhere.  Raanta, though often injured, signed for less than what most top backups make which limits the risk involved in signing him.  When he’s healthy, he’s a capable second-stringer but until he can stay in the lineup for an extended period of time, these are the types of contracts he’ll be limited to.

Three Years Remaining

F Sebastian Aho ($8.46MM, UFA)
F Jordan Martinook ($1.8MM, UFA)
F Teuvo Teravainen ($5.4MM, UFA)
D Brett Pesce ($4.025MM, UFA)
D Brady Skjei ($5.25MM, UFA)

Aho, as you may recall, had been the last player to receive an offer sheet before Kotkaniemi with Carolina ultimately matching.  The deal has been a below-market one for a top center although the term of the contract allows Aho to reach the open market while still in the prime of his career.  A jump past the $10MM mark appears to be a certainty if he continues at this level of play.  Teravainen has turned into quite the prize for taking on Bryan Bickell’s contract back in 2016 (the Hurricanes dealt a pair of draft picks but neither were worth Teravainen) as he has worked his way into being a top-line winger who is making second line money on a team-friendly deal.  He’s in line for another $2MM or so on his next contract.  Martinook was once a third liner for Carolina but has dropped to the fourth line lately, making this deal a bit of an overpayment in terms of value.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him shopped at some point for someone a bit cheaper to get a bit of cap flexibility.

Skjei hasn’t been quite as impactful for Carolina compared to his time with the Rangers although he hadn’t exactly had the same role either.  They’re deploying him as a steadying presence on the second pairing, a role that he’s a bit overpriced for but the fact he can move up when needed makes it a worthwhile luxury to have.  Pesce, meanwhile, has blossomed from someone who was previously playing Skjei’s role into a top-pairing player while making considerably less than others in that spot on other teams.  He’s looking at a nice raise three years from now whether it’s from Carolina or someone else.

Read more

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2021-22 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Chicago Blackhawks

Current Cap Hit: $84,388,897 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Kirby Dach (one year, $925K)
F Reese Johnson (one year, $881K)
F Philipp Kurashev (one year, $843K)

Potential Bonuses
Dach: $2.5MM
Entwistle: $32.5K
Kurashev: $32.5K
Total: $2.565MM

Dach hasn’t progressed as much as anyone in the Chicago organization had hoped.  At 20, he’s still certainly young enough to be a long-term fixture for them but he’s not there yet.  As a result, a bridge deal is quite likely and he’ll have to pick up his play to have a shot at any of his four ‘A’ bonuses worth $212.5K each.  Kurashev has been a useful player that has moved up and down the lineup but his production has been limited each season.  He should be able to get a small raise but it won’t be on a long-term deal.  Johnson has spent most of the season on the big club in a limited role and seems like a good candidate to take a minimum NHL salary next summer in exchange for a higher AHL salary.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Ryan Carpenter ($1MM, UFA)
G Marc-Andre Fleury ($7MM, UFA)
D Calvin de Haan ($4.55MM, UFA)
F Kurtis Gabriel ($750K, UFA)
D Erik Gustafsson ($850K, UFA)
D Caleb Jones ($850K, RFA)
F Dominik Kubalik ($3.7MM, RFA)
G Kevin Lankinen ($800K, UFA)
F Andrew Shaw ($3.9MM, UFA)
F Dylan Strome ($3MM, RFA)

Shaw has been on LTIR all season and won’t return but his cap relief will keep Chicago in compliance to the salary cap.  Kubalik’s third NHL campaign hasn’t gone anywhere as well as his first two as he has been more of a depth scorer this season.  He’s owed a $4MM qualifying offer in the summer and that might be too pricey for the Blackhawks to afford which would put him on the open market in a spot to take a pay cut.  They’re in a similar situation with Strome who has struggled to even crack the lineup this season.  A $3.6MM qualifier is what is required and it seems quite unlikely that will be tendered.  Instead, something closer to $2MM on the open market may be doable.  Carpenter is a capable checker but as someone that’s best suited for the fourth line, he’ll be hard-pressed to get much more than that on the open market.  Gabriel was just acquired from Toronto and after clearing waivers at the start of the season, it’s safe to suggest he’ll be capped at a minimum deal next year.

In his prime, de Haan was a quality shutdown defender but he hasn’t been that player for the last few seasons.  He can still kill penalties and play on the third pairing but with no offense to speak of, he’s someone that should be landing closer to $1MM on the open market in the summer.  Jones has been limited due to injury this season which doesn’t help his free agent case.  A small raise beyond the required 5% in his qualifying offer is reasonable but he’s not going to break the bank and a long-term contract makes no sense for him.  Gustafsson caught on with Chicago late in training camp and has been better in his own end although that has coincided with a drop-off in production.  For a player known for his production, that’s not ideal.  It’s hard to see him doing better in free agency in July as a result.

Now 37, Fleury is clearly nearing the end of his career.  He’s having an okay season but he’s going to have a hard time selling himself as a sure-fire starter in the summer.  A one-year deal around half of his current price tag – still in that higher tier for a platoon goalie – may be a more reasonable target if he wants to play another year.  Lankinen is having a tough year compared to his rookie season which isn’t going to help his case in free agency.  He’ll be able to land a raise based on that first year but he looks likelier to settle for something in the lower end of the backup market in the $1.25MM to $1.75MM range.

Two Years Remaining

F Henrik Borgstrom ($1MM, RFA)
F Brett Connolly ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Alex DeBrincat ($6.4MM, RFA)
F Patrick Kane ($10.5MM, UFA)
F Jujhar Khaira ($975K, UFA)
F Jonathan Toews ($10.5MM, UFA)

Kane and Toews have been linked together for well over a decade now and are on their second set of identical contracts.  That won’t happen again two years from now, however.  Kane continues to produce at a top-line rate and while that could change between now and then, there still should be enough interest in him on a medium-term deal for him to remain one of the higher-paid wingers in the league.  That shouldn’t be the case for Toews.  He has struggled considerably this season after missing all of last year due to illness.  Aside from an outlier in 2018-19, he hasn’t produced at a top center level in a while.  If he can turn it around and still produce like a second liner, he could land a deal around half of his current price tag.  But if his current struggles are a sign of things to come, that price tag will be going down even further.

DeBrincat is a particularly interesting RFA case in 2023.  His contract, although it kicked in after the rule change for the qualifying offer, still goes by the old rules since it was signed early.  That means his qualifying offer is $9MM instead of 120% of his AAV.  Right now, there are 19 forwards in the league at that price tag or more and quite a few are centers.  DeBrincat is scoring like a high-end winger but his size is always going to give some teams pause.  It’d be difficult to envision Chicago non-tendering him unless his production falls off a cliff next season but will they be ready to hand him a Kane-like contract to buy out the remaining prime years of his career?  The Blackhawks can offer less but with DeBrincat being a year away from UFA eligibility, he could simply accept the qualifier.  Whoever is at the helm next summer – either interim GM Kyle Davidson or someone else – this is a file that they’ll want to try to address.

Borgstrom’s return to North America hasn’t gone well as he has had a limited role when he has been in the lineup and hasn’t done much with it.  If that continues, he’ll be a non-tender candidate even at a $1.1MM qualifying offer due to his arbitration eligibility.  Connolly is who they took on to add Borgstrom plus some other pieces.  He’s an NHL-caliber player but is making much more than he should.  He’s someone that should be closer to $1MM on the open market and he could get there this summer if Chicago needs to free up some short-term cap room.  Khaira is a capable checker but nothing much has changed for him since he hit the market last summer after being non-tendered.  Accordingly, it’s reasonable to project his next contract should check in close to this one.

Three Years Remaining

F Mackenzie Entwistle ($812K this season, $800K through 2023-24, RFA)
F Brandon Hagel ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Mike Hardman ($913K this season, $800K through 2023-24, RFA)
D Riley Stillman ($1.35MM, RFA)
F Tyler Johnson ($5MM, UFA)

Johnson was acquired from Tampa Bay over the summer to give them some extra center depth while adding a second-round pick in exchange for a player who won’t play again (Brent Seabrook).  There’s some value in what they got but it remains an above-market contract and as tight as they are to the cap ceiling, it’s fair to wonder if that was the best utilization of that money.  Hagel has turned into a reliable secondary scorer and was a good undrafted free agent pickup.  As long as he can even hold his own on the third line (and he’s doing better than that now), they’ll get a nice return on their deals.  Entwistle and Hardman are currently on entry-level deals but signed cheap one-way extensions that can be cleared off the cap entirely if they lose their spot.  Otherwise, they’re decent depth pieces for just above the league minimum.

Stillman was the other player of note brought on when they took on Connolly’s contract.  He’s not playing heavy minutes but he’s a regular part of Chicago’s back end.  Assuming he can hold down that sixth spot moving forward, they’ll get okay value at least on this contract but they’re certainly hoping he’ll be able to take on a bigger role down the road.

Read more

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2021-22 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Colorado Avalanche

Current Cap Hit: $81,972,800 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Bowen Byram (two years, $894K)
F Alex Newhook (two years, $908K)

Potential Bonuses
Byram: $2.5MM
Newhook: $850K
Total: $3.35MM

Newhook got a taste of NHL action last season in a limited role but spent most of the early part of this year back in the minors.  However, he has been quite productive since being recalled and is staking a claim to a full-time spot which would give him a chance of hitting at least a couple of his ‘A’ bonuses at just over $212K apiece.  Even with that, however, a bridge contract seems likely in order to preserve some space for the bigger ticket expiring deals at that time.

The same reasoning is likely to be applied to Byram as well.  He is a bit more established than Newhook but his concussion trouble is going to create some hesitance on GM Joe Sakic’s part to commit to a big-money, long-term contract.  If he can stay healthy for a few years, such a move would be more likely but they’re not going to get to that point in 2023.  As for his bonus situation, if he’s able to get cleared to return and can stay in the lineup for a while, he has a chance of meeting the four ‘A’ bonuses, earning $850K of his potential bonuses; the rest are unlikely.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Nicolas Aube-Kubel ($1.075MM, RFA)
F Andre Burakovsky ($4.9MM, UFA)
G Pavel Francouz ($2MM, UFA)
F Darren Helm ($1MM, UFA)
D Jack Johnson ($750K, UFA)
F Nazem Kadri ($4.5MM, UFA)
G Darcy Kuemper ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Kurtis MacDermid ($875K, UFA)
D Ryan Murray ($2MM, UFA)
F Valeri Nichushkin ($2.5MM, UFA)

When Colorado acquired Burakovsky, he had shown flashes of top-six ability but he was also quite inconsistent.  The flashes are still there and they are much more frequent now as his production has risen significantly.  He isn’t at a level where he can necessarily command top dollar for wingers but he could jump past the $6MM mark.  Kadri is having quite the contract year and is in the top five in league scoring.  That won’t set him up to get elite center money on the open market – especially with his past – but good centers are always in high demand and short supply.  If he continues at this pace, surpassing $7MM on a long-term deal is a definite possibility.

Nichushkin has been particularly strong in limited action this season but his history since being with the Avs is that he works as a middle-six winger.  The market was a lot better for those players over the summer so a raise into the mid-to-high $3MM range should be doable for him.  Aube-Kubel and Helm could feel the squeeze of a tight cap situation as those spots will probably need to go to players making closer to the minimum next season.  Both could have a case for receiving similar money to what they’re getting now but they may have to go elsewhere to do so; arbitration eligibility could make Aube-Kubel a non-tender candidate.

Murray’s market didn’t really materialize so he opted for a bit of a pillow situation to try to showcase his value on a good team.  It hasn’t gone quite as planned as he has had a limited role when he’s in the lineup and as has been the case for most of his career, staying healthy has been a challenge.  On reputation alone, he could still land somewhere near this price on a one-year deal next summer but it’s hard to see a multi-year commitment heading his way unless the second half goes a lot better than the first.  MacDermid brings plenty of physicality but is best utilized in a depth role which will cap his earnings upside at a level not much higher than it is now.  As for Johnson, he has been a nice bargain pickup for the Avs.  Given his past, however, it’s hard to see him going more than year-to-year at this point although he could land a small raise next summer.

The Avs paid a high price tag to get the final year of Kuemper’s deal and the results have been mixed so far.  Based on his numbers with Arizona, he’s someone worthy of passing $5MM per season.  With Colorado?  Not so much.  A big second half and playoff run can change things but as of right now, he’s someone who could land about $1MM more with teams being hesitant to go past that with him only passing the 30-game mark twice in his career.  Francouz has yet to play an NHL game on this contract which started last season due to injury.  That doesn’t bode well for his future earnings and a cheap one-year deal may be all he can manage.

Two Years Remaining

F J.T. Compher ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Erik Johnson ($6MM, UFA)
F Tyson Jost ($2MM, RFA)
F Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3MM, UFA)

It’s MacKinnon’s contract situation that will make long-term commitments hard to hand out between now and then.  Over the past five years, two players have recorded more points than he has (and they both play for Edmonton).  If there’s anyone that can challenge Connor McDavid for the highest AAV in NHL history, it may very well be MacKinnon.  He’ll hit the open market at 28 so a max-term contract is all but a given (eight years from Colorado, seven from anyone else).  Even if he doesn’t pass the $12.5MM mark, he should come close which would add upwards of $6MM to their payroll.  Until they have a sense of what they can do with their star center, Sakic should be looking at short-term options to ensure they have the flexibility to keep MacKinnon in the fold.

Compher did well in MacKinnon’s absence earlier this season which bolsters his case that he’s capable of being a regular top-six player.  When everyone is healthy for the Avs, however, he isn’t in that situation.  Unless something changes (such as Kadri moving on and Compher moving up a notch on the depth chart), he’ll be hard-pressed to get much more than what he’s making now.  Jost has been a little better this season but is still underwhelming relative to his draft stock.  He’s not consistent enough to be a top-six player and pure bottom-six players without a particular specialty don’t often get big deals.  He’s owed a $2.25MM qualifying offer in 2023 and depending on what happens with MacKinnon, that may be too rich for them.

A few years ago at the start of this contract, Johnson was seeing plenty of time on the top pairing and playing a prominent role.  Now he’s 33 and missed almost all of last season due to injury.  His days of being a fixture on the top pair are over and he’s more of a role player.  He’s actually off to a nice start to his season, showing he has something left in the tank, albeit not at a $6MM level.  If he stays healthy, he could drop to the high-$3MM range or perhaps a bit less if someone wants to give him a longer-term contract, a risk as he’ll be subject to 35+ rules (unless the contract is structured uniformly).

Three Years Remaining

D Devon Toews ($4.1MM, UFA)

A tough cap situation for the Islanders was great news for Colorado as they were able to add Toews for a pair of second-round picks and sign him to a deal that he is outperforming significantly.  He’s up over a point per game this season after notching a career-best 31 last year and is logging nearly 25 minutes a night again.  As a result, Toews is providing top-pairing production while getting paid less than what some teams are paying their third blueliner.  If he continues on this trajectory, doubling his current AAV could be attainable.

Read more

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Current Cap Hit: $70,831,138 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Emil Bemstrom (one year, $925K)
D Adam Boqvist (one year, $894K)
F Yegor Chinakhov (two years, $925K)
F Cole Sillinger (three years, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Bemstrom: $850K
Boqvist: $850K
Chinakhov: $500K
Sillinger: $425K
Total: $2.625MM

Sillinger took advantage of the Blue Jackets being thin down the middle to push himself into a regular roster spot and he is the only player from this draft class to make it past the nine-game threshold to start his rookie deal.  His offensive numbers are certainly decent but it’s what he does in the last half of the contract that will determine if he gets a short-term second deal or a long-term pact as a franchise fixture.  His two ‘A’ bonuses for this season could very well be hit, giving him a nice jump in pay.  Columbus somewhat surprisingly agreed to burn the first year of Chinakhov’s deal last season without him playing a single game.  That, coupled with a quiet start to his rookie campaign, puts the 2020 first-round pick on a path for a bridge contract.  Bemstrom was a capable secondary offensive player in his rookie season and was a bit below that pace last season but has yet to play this season due to an oblique strain.  Players like that rarely get long-term pacts but he should be able to land a small raise and be closer to the $1.5MM mark in 2022-23.

Boqvist was one of the key pieces of the trade return for Seth Jones but things haven’t gone as planned with his new team.  He underwhelmed early on, got hurt, wound up being a healthy scratch for a little bit, and has been up and down since returning.  While Columbus surely still views the 21-year-old as a long-term fixture, it’d be next to impossible to find a price point that both sides are content with on a contract that buys out UFA years.  A bridge deal – potentially even a one-year contract to try to restore some value – makes the most sense for Boqvist while giving both sides more time to determine whether or not he can reach his offensive ceiling.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Gabriel Carlsson ($725K, RFA)
F Justin Danforth ($750K, UFA)
F Max Domi ($5.3MM, UFA)
D Scott Harrington ($1.633MM, UFA)
F Gregory Hofmann ($900K, UFA)
G Joonas Korpisalo ($2.8MM, UFA)
D Dean Kukan ($1.65MM, UFA)
F Patrik Laine ($7.5MM, UFA)
F Jack Roslovic ($1.838MM, RFA)

After a tough season split between Winnipeg and Columbus, Laine accepted his qualifying offer which didn’t come as much of a surprise.  Doing so takes him to one year away from UFA eligibility so the time to work out a long-term contract is soon approaching.  If that doesn’t happen, he’ll be in trade speculation before too long.  As for how much a deal like that should cost, it’s likely in the high-$8MM/low-$9MM range and whether or not it’s worth paying remains in question.  Domi has a lot riding on this season after failing to produce in his first season with the Blue Jackets.  At this point, he’s likely heading for a pay cut and the question will be, does he take a one-year pillow deal to try to restore some value or opt for a bit less and get some stability after bouncing around the last few years (and probably again by the trade deadline)?

Roslovic ended his holdout after being part of the Laine trade and did quite well, outproducing the others in the swap last season.  That hasn’t carried over to this season where he has been more of a secondary player.  While it wouldn’t be surprising to see GM Jarmo Kekalainen try to buy out some UFA time with his next contract, they shouldn’t be willing to go much beyond the $3MM mark to achieve that.  Hofmann and Danforth were brought over after strong seasons overseas.  Hofmann has been okay while Danforth has had a very limited role.  Neither have really earned big raises which could have them heading back overseas or re-signing for a similar price tag.

Kukan needed to show that he was capable of holding down a full-time spot in the lineup to have a shot at getting a small raise or even a similar contract next summer.  Injuries have limited him to just two games which is going to make it hard for him to get that raise.  Something closer to $1MM seems more likely for him.  The exact same thing could be said for Harrington who, despite the three-year commitment from Columbus, hasn’t been able to establish himself as more than a seventh defender.  The price tag for that is about half of what he’s making now.  Carlsson has cleared waivers a couple of times but is still just 24.  A small bump is all he’d need to stick around for another year.

Get used to seeing Korpisalo’s name in trade speculation over the next few months.  He is no longer the starter of the future for the Blue Jackets and with them rebuilding, it’s unlikely they’d want to pay the price to extend him.  His recent performance has hurt his value but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him eclipse $3MM on his next deal and he, too, might benefit from a one-year pillow contract elsewhere to try to improve his long-term value.

Two Years Remaining

D Gavin Bayreuther ($750K, UFA)
D Vladislav Gavrikov ($2.8MM, UFA)
F Gustav Nyquist ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Andrew Peeke ($788K, RFA)
F Alexandre Texier ($1.525MM, RFA)

Nyquist was supposed to come in and be a reliable top-six winger and for the first year, he was.  However, he missed all of last season due to a shoulder injury and he has gotten off to a bit of a quieter start this season as well.  As a result, his deal – which could have been argued as a slight overpayment when it was signed – now is a contract that’s well above market value.  Texier has shown flashes of top-six upside but the consistency hasn’t been there which made a bridge deal for him a wise move for both sides.  He’ll be owed a small raise with a $1.75MM qualifying offer and if he can start to produce with more consistency, there’s room for it to go up considerably from there.

Gavrikov has taken some steps forward in the early going this season, taking full advantage of his extra ice time to already surpass his point total from 2020-21 while logging nearly 21 minutes a game.  He has become a capable top-four defenseman at a price tag that is well below what one of those can get on the open market.  If he can keep this pace up through next season, he could double his current AAV.  However, expecting him to maintain that production may be a bit unrealistic and accordingly, something in the $4MM range may be more probable.  Peeke has played his way into a regular role and based on the contracts that Harrington and Kukan have, it’s possible that he could double his price tag on his next deal.  Bayreuther has had a limited role when he’s in the lineup and that extra spot on the depth chart should be staying at or near the minimum which is where his price tag should be as well.

Three Years Remaining

D Jake Bean ($2.333MM, RFA)
F Eric Robinson ($975K in 2021-22, $1.6MM in 2022-23 and 2023-24, UFA)
F Jakub Voracek ($8.25MM, UFA)

Voracek was acquired over the summer from Philadelphia as the Flyers looked to shake up their veteran core.  The 32-year-old has only scored once but with 17 assists in 21 games, he has been one of their top offensive forwards.  That said, that isn’t a level of production worthy of that salary and at this point, it’s only likely it will decline.  However, they have the cap space to be able to absorb the overpayment.  Robinson worked his way from a sparingly used depth piece to a regular in the bottom six which earned him the raise for next season.  He’ll need to show that he’s capable of producing double digits in goals if he’s going to have a shot at a higher AAV in 2024.

Columbus thought Bean had more to bring and flipped a second-rounder to Carolina for his rights, then signed him to a deal that was above the market rate for someone with just 44 games under his belt, most of which were in a limited role.  It was a bit of a gamble by Kekalainen but it looks pretty good early on as Bean has thrived with the Blue Jackets, becoming a quality two-way blueliner.  All of a sudden, this looks like a nice bargain on their books.  He’ll be owed a $2.8MM qualifying offer when this contract expires and he’ll have arbitration eligibility while being a year away from unrestricted free agency.  If Bean’s strong play continues, they’ll need to double his current price tag at a minimum to keep him in the fold.

Read more

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Dallas Stars

Current Cap Hit: $85,575,985 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

G Jake Oettinger (one year, $925K)
F Jacob Peterson (two years, $842.5K)
F Jason Robertson (one year, $795K)

Potential Bonuses
Oettinger: $537.5K
Peterson: $82.5K
Robertson: $82.5K
Total: $702.5K

Peterson spending this much time on the roster early on in his first season in North America is a bit of a surprise but the fact he has done well is certainly encouraging for the Stars.  With it being his first year, it’s hard to project where his next deal will be but he’s well on his way to hitting some of his games played bonus money.  Robertson finished second on the Stars in scoring last season and is hovering near the point per game mark again this year.  Limited action in his rookie campaign hurts his bargaining power a little but as long as he can play at a similar level to last year, he should have enough of a case to argue for a long-term contract with an AAV that could check in close to the one Carolina’s Andrei Svechnikov recently received (eight years, $7.75MM cap hit).

Oettinger is listed here more to talk about his next contract than anything else as he’s basically the third-string option this season unless they move two veteran goalies out.  He could be a regular again in 2022-23 and while he’s someone that Dallas would be wise to try to get a multi-year agreement in place with, there’s little reason for the youngster to agree to that.  A one-year agreement that gets him to arbitration eligibility in the 2023 summer would be his best course of action even if it means his salary won’t jump up too much for next season.  Meanwhile, as he has ‘A’ bonuses, it’s unlikely he’ll hit them this season unless he’s up full-time before too much longer which will help lessen their carryover penalty.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Denis Gurianov ($2.55MM, RFA)
G Braden Holtby ($2MM, UFA)
D John Klingberg ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Joe Pavelski ($7MM, UFA)
F Alexander Radulov ($6.25MM, UFA)
F Michael Raffl ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Andrej Sekera ($1.5MM, UFA)

Pavelski’s first season was quiet aside from a strong playoff run which carried over into last year when he led the Stars in scoring.  He’s still producing like a top-six forward at a minimum (if not a top-liner last season) but he’s also going to be 38 when 2022-23 gets underway.  A one-year deal seems likely which opens up the potential for bonuses as well.  Even so, he’s going to be heading for at least a small dip although something in the $4MM-$5MM range is certainly possible.  Radulov is the other big-ticket deal coming off the books.  He’s coming off an injury-plagued season and is off to a particularly tough start this year.  He’ll be 36 next season and there will be questions as to whether or not he can still play in the top six of an NHL team.  As someone that has opted to take bigger money overseas once before, it’s definitely a possibility here if his AAV dips into the $3MM range.

Gurianov got this bridge coming off an improbable 20-goal season but still hasn’t been able to establish himself as a consistent top-six forward.  He’s young enough (24) to get a longer leash but his qualifying offer jumps to $2.9MM next summer.  With the start to the season he’s having, it’s hard to see him getting much more than that in theory but with arbitration eligibility, he should be able to use that to push past the $3MM mark.  Raffl has been more of a fourth liner in recent years and after going through the market this past summer, it’s safe to say his value next summer should check in fairly close to his current $1.1MM price tag.

If Dallas is going to reallocate some of Pavelski or Radulov’s money, Klingberg could very well be the beneficiary.  A report last month pegged his asking price at over $60MM over eight years, an AAV of $7.5MM or higher.  That’s a significant jump over his current price tag although he has the offensive production to try to shoot that high.  The Stars may not prefer to go eight years but if it keeps the cap hit lower, they’ll seriously have to consider it.  Sekera hasn’t been an impact blueliner for a few years now and has been more of a depth player in Dallas.  He’ll have to take a pay cut to get another NHL deal and could be a candidate for an incentive-based deal with a guarantee not far off the minimum with a few hundred thousand in games placed bonuses.

Holtby landing with Dallas was one of the more puzzling goalie moves this summer although they got him at a heavily discounted rate compared to a few years ago.  Of course, there’s a reason for that since he was bought out by Vancouver.  He’s off to a decent start this season which could help him restore some value and get closer to that higher tier of backups in the high-$3MM range.

Two Years Remaining

G Ben Bishop ($4.917MM, UFA)
F Luke Glendening ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Joel Hanley ($750K, UFA)
F Roope Hintz ($3.15MM, RFA)
G Anton Khudobin ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Joel Kiviranta ($1.05MM, UFA)

Hintz has largely flown under the radar in Dallas with several high-priced veterans in front of him but he was a top-liner for them last season.  His output has dipped early on this year but there’s still time to turn that around.  Their cap situation in 2020 forced a bridge deal but Hintz will have the hammer in the next negotiation with arbitration rights, a $3.79MM qualifier (120% of the AAV), and being a year away from UFA eligibility.  A long-term deal in the $6MM range is certainly doable for him.  Glendening is a role player at this point but as one of the best faceoff players in the league most years, it allows him to get more of a premium compared to other fourth liners.  As long as he keeps winning draws at a clip better than most, there’s no reason to think he can’t get another deal around this price tag in 2023.  Kiviranta was at his best in the 2020 bubble but has yet to establish himself as a full-time NHL player yet and has been limited when he is in the lineup.  If that continues, he’ll be hard-pressed to get this on the open market, let alone more.

Hanley has been on a minimum contract for the last several seasons, serving as low-cost depth.  That’s a roster spot they’ll want to keep at that price point so he could stick around for a little while yet.

Bishop missed all of last season and all of this year so far which has him on LTIR.  However, he has been skating regularly for a while now but they can’t afford to activate him without clearing cap space first so that’s something to watch for from Dallas in the near future.  With how much time he has missed and the fact his next deal will be his age-37 season, it’s not a guarantee Bishop gets another contract and if he does, a one-year, incentive-based deal with a lower salary is all he could hope for.  Khudobin’s numbers dipped last season and have gotten considerably worse so far in 2021-22.  Like Bishop, his next contract will be his age-37 season so he’ll probably be eyeing a one-year deal at best and if his numbers continue to be this poor, it’ll be at a much lower cost than his current one.

Three Years Remaining

D Jani Hakanpaa ($1.5MM, UFA)

Hakanpaa got himself on the map last season as he played in 57 games between Anaheim and Carolina (notable in itself considering it was a 56-game campaign) while providing plenty of physicality from the back end.  That resulted in a fairly strong market for him in free agency, allowing him to get three years after only his first NHL season at the age of 29.  He’ll need to move into a top-four role to have an opportunity for a bigger deal next time around.

Read more

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Detroit Red Wings

Current Cap Hit: $69,670,981 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Lucas Raymond (three years, $925K)
D Moritz Seider (three years, $863K)
F Joseph Veleno (two years, $894K)
F Filip Zadina (one year, $894K)

Potential Bonuses
Raymond: $2.5MM
Seider: $850K
Veleno: $318.75K
Zadina: $850K

Raymond has been one of the top rookies in the league this season, hovering at or near the point per game mark as we approach the one-quarter mark.  Obviously, at that pace throughout his entry-level deal, he’d be bypassing the bridge deal altogether and signing a substantial long-term pact.  In the short term, he’s well on his way to earning his $850K of ‘A’ bonuses while the ‘B’ ones (which aren’t known publicly) will be difficult to get based on those options.  Zadina hasn’t had anywhere the type of impact Raymond has despite being a high pick as well.  He’s a regular but is still in the middle six and players like that typically wind up with a short-term prove-it deal; it’s hard to think he’ll be an exception.  On the bonus front, he might be able to land an ‘A’ bonus or two but maxing out is unlikely.  Veleno has been up and down in the early going this season which doesn’t help his bonus chances.  He’s a role player at this point and while that could change, it seems unlikely that will happen by next season so a bridge is likely for him as well.

Seider’s debut had long been anticipated and for good reason as he has wasted little time working his way into a significant role that sees him log significant minutes in all situations.  Offensively, he is one of the top-scoring blueliners in the league already.  A very strong rookie in his own right, he and Raymond could very well be battling it out for the Calder Trophy this season.  Seider is quite likely to reach his ‘A’ bonuses this season if he can stay healthy.  Looking further down the road, the 20-year-old basically feels like a lock to sign a long-term second contract that buys out some UFA years.  He is the pillar on the back end for Detroit to build around.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Danny DeKeyser ($5MM, UFA)
F Robby Fabbri ($2.95MM, UFA)
F Sam Gagner ($850K, UFA)
G Thomas Greiss ($3.6MM, UFA)
D Nick Leddy ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Vladislav Namestnikov ($2MM, UFA)
F Carter Rowney ($825K, UFA)
D Marc Staal ($2MM, UFA)
D Troy Stecher ($1.7MM, UFA)
F Mitchell Stephens ($738K, UFA)

Fabbri is a particularly interesting case when it comes to his next contract.  He has been more consistent since joining Detroit after St. Louis traded him but he still has been more of a secondary scorer.  Add that to his lengthy injury history and there’s a lot for him to play for this season.  A small bump into the mid-$3.5MM range is doable but he’ll need a big platform year to get a sizable long-term commitment.  Namestnikov is off to a strong start offensively by his standards which is always notable in a contract year.  His last trip through the open market wasn’t great and as someone that’s better in a depth role, it’s hard to see him getting back to the $4MM he had on his previous contract.  Gagner has been going with low-cost one-year deals for the last two seasons and landing another one of those is certainly possible if Detroit wants to keep him around.  Rowney was a late addition coming off an injury-riddled 2020-21 campaign.  He has been a depth piece this season and that could very well make him a PTO candidate next summer.  Stephens was brought in with the hope that a full-time role could help his development but that hasn’t happened yet.  He’s young enough to still be tendered a qualifying offer but his next contract shouldn’t be for too much more than that unless his production increases when he returns from his lower-body injury.

The word that comes to mind when looking at the defensemen in this category is ’placeholder’.  Detroit took on Leddy’s contract from the Islanders with an eye on flipping him closer to the trade deadline if they’re out of the race.  From his perspective, his value has dipped in recent years as his production has ticked downward aside from a brief rebound last season.  He’s not heading for a significant drop but a multi-year commitment in the high $4MM/low $5MM range may be his ceiling in the summer.  DeKeyser has been a fixture in Detroit’s lineup for close to a decade but he’s more of a role player than an impact one now.  Getting half of his current price tag might be attainable but not much more.  Staal accepted a big pay cut to stick around and he has been closer to a number six blueliner than a top-four one.  Another dip is certainly possible.  Stecher has been limited due to injuries and hasn’t had a big role when he has been in but he’s still fairly young (27) and as a right-shot rearguard, he will get some chances.  A small increase is realistic for him.  Everyone on this list is a viable trade candidate (pending waiving trade protection) and their fortunes could change depending on what team they wind up on.

Greiss is another of the stopgap goaltenders that Detroit has employed over the last few seasons over going after a high-priced starter.  His first season went well (his start this year, not so much) but overall, he is a capable platoon goalie.  We’ve seen the price tag for those goalies go up lately so if Greiss can rebound, a similar price tag next year is certainly a possibility.  He’ll be eligible for bonuses on a one-year deal as he’ll be 36 in January so teams may prefer to go year-to-year with him from now on.

Two Years Remaining

F Tyler Bertuzzi ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Adam Erne ($2.1MM, UFA)
F Dylan Larkin ($6.1MM, UFA)
G Alex Nedeljkovic ($3MM, UFA)
D Jordan Oesterle ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Givani Smith ($750K, RFA)
F Pius Suter ($3.25MM, UFA)

One of the risks Detroit took when they gave Larkin this deal was that it took him to UFA eligibility in his prime as he’ll only be 26 when he tests the market (he qualifies for UFA status based on service time, not age).  Top-six centers are always in high demand and as a capable two-way player, he could be looking at a sizable raise even if his current point-per-game production doesn’t quite hold up between now and then.  He won’t approach the $10MM mark but something in the high-$7MM/low-$8MM range is definitely doable.

Bertuzzi is healthy after an injury-riddled 2020-21 campaign, one that basically tanked his case for a long-term extension.  The trade-off is that he will also hit the open market in his prime at 28 where he should be able to land that long-term contract with another million or two on the AAV.  Suter came over after a strong rookie season from Chicago where they ultimately balked at the arbitration risk that would have come with a qualifying offer.  Given his relative inexperience, he’ll need to establish himself on the second line with commensurate production to have a shot at really cashing in two years from now.  Otherwise, he’ll be in line for something closer to this contract in a bottom-six role.  Erne has shown flashes of offensive upside but hasn’t yet been able to establish himself as a full-time top-six player.  He has, however, become a capable third-line physical winger and that alone should give him at least a small boost two years from now.  Smith is a low-cost role player whose price tag shouldn’t creep too much higher than it is now unless he establishes himself as more of an impact player.

Oesterle is yet another placeholder on the back end.  He has worked his way from being a player on the fringes to being a regular heading into this season which helped him land some security but as someone that’s still more of a sixth defender, his price tag shouldn’t get much higher than this.

Nedeljkovic was brought over from Carolina after the Hurricanes didn’t want to pay this type of price for someone with only a couple of strong NHL months under his belt.  Still, with Detroit’s situation between the pipes, it was a more than reasonable move for GM Steve Yzerman and in the early going, Nedeljkovic has been decent.  If he winds up continuing to platoon over the next couple of years, his earnings upside will be capped as he’ll be in that group that has recently been signing for in the mid-to-high-$3MM range so there will be a lot riding on how he performs this season and next.

Three Years Remaining

D Filip Hronek ($4.4MM, RFA)
F Michael Rasmussen ($1.46MM, RFA)
F Jakub Vrana ($5.25MM, UFA)

Vrana was quite impressive following his acquisition as part of the Anthony Mantha trade which helped him turn around his season where he had underwhelmed a bit with Washington.  Notably, the deal only bought out one year of UFA eligibility, allowing him to hit the market in his prime as well.  This season is basically a write-off due to his shoulder injury so how he performs in the next two will go a long way of showing whether or not he can become a consistent top liner.  Rasmussen has underwhelmed offensively in the early going of his career but on this contract, he won’t need to produce much to provide surplus value.  As a third-line center, he’s making a fair bit below market value for someone in that role and they’ll have more time to determine if he will just be a role player moving forward or a long-term piece to try to build around.

Hronek is an interesting case having been healthy scratched earlier in the season.  Heading into this season, he was unquestionably Detroit’s top rearguard and even with Seider’s strong performance, Hronek leads the team in ATOI.  Having a number one blueliner on this type of deal with at least one more year of team control after makes him one of their most valuable assets.

Buyouts

F Justin Abdelkader ($2.3056MM in 2021-22 and 2022-23, $1.0556MM from 2023-24 through 2025-26)
D Frans Nielsen ($4.25MM in 2021-22, $500K in 2022-23)

Retained Salary Transactions

F Richard Panik ($1.375MM through 2022-23)

Best Value: Hronek
Worst Value: DeKeyser

Looking Ahead

If you’re thinking there was a section missed with no one being listed as being signed for four years or longer, it wasn’t missed – there just aren’t any active players signed beyond three seasons; Abdelkader’s buyout is currently their longest commitment.  That gives Yzerman about as blank a canvas as possible to work with over the next few seasons.

The key for the Red Wings will be ensuring that their top ‘veterans’ (Larkin, Bertuzzi, and Vrana) are either retained or replaced when their deals come to an end.  That group coupled with long-term pacts for Raymond and Seider should represent the core for them to really emerge from their rebuild.  With the lack of long-term commitments on their books, Detroit should be well-positioned to try to add to that group as well when the time is right.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $87,327,789 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Evan Bouchard (two years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Bouchard: $850K

Bouchard has seemingly been on the cusp for a while as Edmonton has slow-played his development and that patience looks to be well-rewarded as the 22-year-old is off to a nice start this season and has secured a spot in their top four.  An offensive blueliner, Bouchard will have a shot at putting up some good numbers over the next two seasons which could push his bridge contract into the $2MM territory; their cap situation will likely force them to go with a short-term deal, similar to their other youngsters.  Bouchard is also on pace to hit multiple ‘A’ bonuses (each worth a quarter of that bonus total above) and with them being well into LTIR, anything he reaches will come off the 2022-23 cap.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Josh Archibald ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Tyler Benson ($750K, RFA)
G Mikko Koskinen ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Brendan Perlini ($750K, RFA)
F Jesse Puljujarvi ($1.175MM, RFA)
D Kris Russell ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Colton Sceviour ($750K, UFA)
G Alex Stalock ($785K, UFA)
F Kyle Turris ($1.65MM, UFA)
F Kailer Yamamoto ($1.175MM, RFA)

Puljujarvi’s second stint with Edmonton has gone a lot better than the first as the 2016 fourth-overall pick has now been able to lock down a spot in their top six and is off to quite the start this season which is always notable in a contract year.  He’ll have arbitration eligibility and if he even comes close to the point per game mark (he’s currently at 1.2), his next deal could be in the $5MM or more range.  If he drops back a bit, tripling his current AAV could be the ceiling on a short-term pact.  Yamamoto was basically stuck signing a one-year deal for cap reasons, giving him the chance to outperform it and hit arbitration with a strong case.  That hasn’t happened just yet as he’s off to a quiet start.  Still, his performance in 2019-20, even in a shortened stint, could loom large with an arbitrator; doubling his current price tag on a one-year deal certainly isn’t out of the question.

Turris looked to be a decent value signing when he joined Edmonton but that didn’t exactly go as planned.  He struggled to stay in the lineup last season, ultimately clearing waivers.  As things stand, he’s a possible PTO candidate next summer.  Archibald’s health situation has put his future for next season in question while Perlini and Sceviour are holding down roster spots that will need to be kept at the minimum.  Benson is just getting his feet wet and has been viewed as one of their better prospects in the past but he’ll need to establish himself as a regular if he wants to get more than the minimum next season.

Russell is finally now at a price tag that’s a better fit for the role he has.  He’s clearly a depth defender at this point of his career and aside from shot blocks, doesn’t bring much to the table in terms of stats.  Another dip is certainly possible and as he’ll be on a 35+ contract next year, it’s likely he’ll be going year to year from here on out.

Koskinen’s contract has not aged well for the Oilers as his inconsistency has limited him to a backup role at a high price tag for someone in that role.  He’s off to a stronger start this season which should keep him on the NHL radar (and, for the time being at least, takes him out of the ‘Worst Value’ category) but unless he really ascends to the number one spot, he could check in closer to half of his current price tag.  Stalock’s not expected to play this season due to a heart condition so at this point, it seems unlikely he’ll have a contract for next year unless he recovers and is able to return.  Even at that, it’d almost certainly be a low-cost one-year pact.

Two Years Remaining

D Duncan Keith ($5.538MM, UFA)
D Oscar Klefbom ($4.167MM, UFA)
D Slater Koekkoek ($925K, UFA)
F Devin Shore ($850K, UFA)
G Mike Smith ($2.2MM, UFA)

Shore did well enough last season to earn a two-year commitment to play a similar depth role for Edmonton.  His spot is another one that they’ll need to keep cheap based on their salary structure and if he remains in and out of the lineup or on the fourth line, Shore won’t be able to command much more of a raise.

Keith was brought over from Chicago in the offseason in a move that raised some eyebrows in terms of whether or not that was the best use of their limited cap space.  He’s playing a more limited role which is more suited to where he is at this stage of his career and is doing okay early on.  Considering he’ll be turning 40 soon after reaching free agency in 2023, it’s fair to wonder if there will be another contract for him let alone how much lower it would be.  Koekkoek opted to stick around after testing free agency and as a low-minute depth defender, it’s hard to imagine his price tag going up much moving forward.  Klefbom is once again out for the season and on LTIR and at this point, it’s reasonable to suspect that will be the case again next year and if that happens, his career is basically over.

Smith was brought back last summer after their other attempts to upgrade between the pipes didn’t pan out.  It worked out quite well for Edmonton in the end as the 39-year-old basically had his best season in almost a decade, earning him a two-year deal which is an outcome few would have expected a year and a half ago.  Even if he’s just a backup over that span, that’s still below market value for a decent second-stringer so the Oilers should get good value from his deal.

Three Years Remaining

D Tyson Barrie ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Warren Foegele ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Zack Kassian ($3.2MM, UFA)

Kassian’s contract was risky from the moment it was signed and the flattened Upper Limit hasn’t helped.  When he’s at his best, he’s a capable top-six power forward and is well worth the money.  When things aren’t going as well, he’s on the fourth line at times and isn’t close to worth it.  The inconsistency makes it hard to move him and the dimension he brings has made the Oilers want to keep him.  That all said, it’s difficult to envision a bigger contract in three years.  Foegele came over in an offseason trade from Carolina and remains in the same type of role he had with the Hurricanes.  Based on the most recent UFA market, there should be some room for a raise on Foegele’s next deal but playing in the top six more consistently would certainly bolster his chances of getting an AAV in the $3MM range.

It’s quite something how Barrie’s value has changed in recent years.  In 2019, he was coming off a career year with Colorado and it looked like an inevitability that he was heading for a significant raise on his then-$5.5MM AAV.  But things didn’t go well following a trade to Toronto and his market dropped, resulting in the one-year deal he had last season.  Even though his production jumped back up (to even better per-game numbers than he had with the Avs), he opted to forego testing the open market again, instead inking this new deal which is still lower than his last one in Colorado.  His defensive limitations are well-known but if Barrie continues to put up the points, the Oilers will get a good return on this deal.

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PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Florida Panthers

Current Cap Hit: $82,014,416 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

G Spencer Knight (two years, $925K)
F Anton Lundell (three years, $925K)
F Eetu Luostarinen (one year, $890K)
F Owen Tippett (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Knight: $1.85MM
Lundell: $850K
Tippett: $850K
Total: $3.55MM

Lundell has impressed in his early NHL action.  Despite being used in a heavy defensive role, he has chipped in offensively and held his own in his own end.  The fact he’s in this important of a spot on the depth chart now will certainly help his cause for his second deal; three years of being a key piece certainly looks better than being up and down which is where Tippett finds himself.  Another first-round pick, Tippett hasn’t produced with much consistency in the NHL and has been up and down in the lineup with some time in the minors as well.  Between that and their cap situation, he’s a strong candidate for a two-year bridge contract that buys both sides more time.  Luostarinen doesn’t have the numbers to command much of a raise although his playing time (over 13 minutes a game in his two seasons with Florida) should be enough to push him over the $1MM mark.

Knight has done well since joining the Panthers late last season and it’s clear he’s their goalie of the future.  Can he get enough playing time over the next two years to command starter money though?  That may be iffy, especially being behind a high-priced netminder on the depth chart.  Making the finances work on a long-term pact two years from now seems difficult given that Sergei Bobrovsky has five years left.  As a result, a two-year bridge deal to keep the combined cost down makes sense for both sides, allowing Knight to get a bigger payday after that while Florida gets only the one season of a very pricey goalie tandem (assuming Bobrovsky is still around by then).

Both Knight and Lundell have a chance to hit some of their bonuses which is worth remembering with how tight they are to the salary cap; it creates the possibility of a carryover overage for next season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Noel Acciari ($1.667MM, UFA)
D Kevin Connauton ($825K, UFA)
D Olli Juolevi ($750K, RFA)
F Ryan Lomberg ($725K, UFA)
F Maxim Mamin ($975K, UFA)
F Mason Marchment ($800K, UFA)
D Markus Nutivaara ($2.7MM, UFA)
F Joe Thornton ($750K, UFA)
F Frank Vatrano ($2.533MM, UFA)

Vatrano has scored at least 16 goals in each of the last three seasons which certainly helps to justify his price tag but he has struggled early on this year, playing largely on the fourth line.  That’s never a good sign in a walk year and could shift him from a chance of earning similar money on his next contract to having to take a bit less.  That recent track record should still give him a decent market though.  Acciari isn’t really the 20-goal player he was in 2018-19 but, when healthy, he’s a capable energy player but he hasn’t played this season due to an upper-body injury.  The longer he sits, the more his value takes a hit.  Mamin got pretty good money to come back from the KHL but has spent most of the season in the minors.  He’s up now and with a one-way contract, he’s someone that could be a trade candidate if he can’t secure a regular spot.  At this point, a return overseas seems likely.  Marchment has turned into a bargain and is off to a nice start offensively while chipping in with plenty of physicality.  While he’s a late bloomer, there will be a lot of interest if he gets to the open market and something in the $2MM range could be doable.  Lomberg and Thornton are cheap end-of-roster pieces and will either be retained or replaced with someone at a similar price point next season.  In Thornton’s case, it’ll probably be the latter.

Nutivaara’s value has dipped since joining Florida last year.  He has been on the third pairing when healthy and is in his second stint on IR already this season.  That’s a high price for a player that’s sixth or seventh on the depth chart and his next deal will reflect that and could check in at half of his current AAV.  Connauton’s value is what it is at this point, a two-way contract that’s close to the minimum salary while Juolevi needs to establish himself as an NHL regular before having a chance at getting into the seven-figure range.

Two Years Remaining

D Radko Gudas ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Patric Hornqvist ($5.3MM, UFA)
F Jonathan Huberdeau ($5.9MM, UFA)
D MacKenzie Weegar ($3.25MM, UFA)

Huberdeau has very quietly produced more than a point per game in each of the last three seasons and is above that rate again in the early going this season.  That’s impressive production for someone that is basically being paid second-line money.  With some of the recent deals handed out to elite wingers, Huberdeau could push for more than $10MM a year although it wouldn’t be surprising if Florida tries to get him slightly below the $10MM that their captain just got.  Hornqvist had a bounce-back 2020-21 campaign although he’s off to a tough start this season.  The style he has played over the years tends to catch up with players as they age and considering he’ll be 36 when his next contract kicks in, it’s likely to be for considerably less than his current price tag as a result.

Weegar has worked his way up from being a role player on the third pairing to a very important part of Florida’s back end.  He’s logging more than 24 minutes per game early on this season – top-pairing minutes – and his offensive game has shown considerable improvement as well.  This has quickly become a very team-friendly contract and if he continues at the pace he’s on, he could be looking at coming close to doubling his price tag on the open market.  Gudas is the player he was when he signed this contract – a third-pairing defensive player whose intimidation factor increases his value.  As long as those two things remain true, there’s no reason to think his next contract will be much different than this one.

Three Years Remaining

F Anthony Duclair ($3MM, UFA)
D Gustav Forsling ($2.667MM, UFA)
D Brandon Montour ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Sam Reinhart ($6.5MM, UFA)

Reinhart was Florida’s big addition over the offseason from Buffalo although they weren’t able to come to terms on a long-term agreement.  Instead, he signed what amounted to another bridge deal, one that bought a couple of years of team control and both sides time to see how he fits in.  Speculatively, his future could be tied to Huberdeau’s; if they re-sign him, it may be hard to fit Reinhart in as well.  If he gets to the open market, he’ll be well-positioned to earn another raise.  Duclair has found a home in Florida after bouncing around.  As a secondary scorer, he’s in a role that suits him more than a primary piece and the offensive environment that Florida has now gives him a chance to provide some good value on that deal.

Montour bounced back last season and did well in his limited time with Florida which earned him some job security.  His role has dropped this season as he’s primarily been on the third pairing but as long as he can contribute offensively, he’ll still provide a reasonable return even if he winds up being more limited at even strength than anticipated.  Still just 27, there’s still time for him to work his way up the depth chart as well.  Forsling has been a nice waiver claim for the Panthers as he has gone from being a depth piece to one of their top blueliners.  Considering he was on waivers back in January, the price tag may seem expensive but he is outperforming that new deal so far.

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PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Los Angeles Kings

Current Cap Hit: $81,040,835 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Michael Anderson (one year, $925K)
D Tobias Bjornfot (two years, $894K)
F Arthur Kaliyev (three years, $894K)
F Rasmus Kupari (two years, $863K)
F Vladimir Tkachev (one year, $925K)
F Gabriel Vilardi (one year, $894K)

Potential Bonuses
Anderson: $850K
Bjornfot: $212.5K
Kaliyev: $62.5K
Kupari: $212.5K
Tkachev: $850K
Vilardi: $850K
Total: $3.0375MM

Tkachev was brought in over the offseason to give Los Angeles another offensive threat but he has been in and out of the lineup so far.  If he can lock down a regular spot in the middle six, he’ll have a chance to hit some of his ‘A’ bonuses but will have to work his way back from the minors first.  The 26-year-old has one RFA-eligible year remaining but a return to Russia may be the likelier scenario if he can’t make his way into the lineup on a regular basis.

The other three forwards are much younger and figure to be part of the long-term plans.  Vilardi’s first ‘full’ NHL season in 2020-21 was a decent showing and he was able to stay healthy which was notable.  Given his injury history, he’s a safe bet for a bridge deal next summer while he’ll need to work his way into the top six to have a shot at some of his bonuses.  Kaliyev has managed to hold down a spot in the lineup in the early going but could be shuffled to AHL Ontario at some point as well.  As this is only officially the first year of his deal, a lot can change in terms of what his next deal will be.  Kupari was a first-rounder in 2018 but has only seen limited NHL action so far.  It’s hard to see him playing enough to reach an ‘A’ bonus and as a role player over a core piece, a short-term second contract is likely.

The same can’t be said for Anderson.  He has quickly played his way into a spot in their top four and even with him burning the first year of the contract in a one-game appearance, he should have enough of a track record to have a case for a medium-term deal.  His limited production will keep the price tag down (though his role could allow him to reach some of his bonuses) but something in the $2.5MM to $3MM range is definitely doable.  Bjornfot has seen a lot of action on the third pairing so far in his career but he’s only 20 so it’s not much of a concern from a development perspective.  That said, it doesn’t help from a leverage perspective; he’ll need a big 2022-23 campaign to avoid a bridge contract.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Andreas Athanasiou ($2.7MM, UFA)
F Dustin Brown ($5.875MM, UFA)
D Alexander Edler ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Carl Grundstrom ($725K, RFA)
F Adrian Kempe ($2MM, RFA)
F Brendan Lemieux ($1.55MM, RFA)
F Blake Lizotte ($800K, RFA)
D Olli Maatta ($3.333MM, UFA)*

* – Chicago is retaining another $750K of Maatta’s contract.

It’s interesting how the perception of Brown’s contract has changed.  When it was signed, it seemed a little long but was market value for a power forward.  Then his production dropped sharply and it looked like an anchor contract.  However, over the past few years, he has rebounded to the point where the deal looks decent again.  Turning 38 on Thursday, it’s quite unlikely Brown will come close to this on his next contract – if there is one – but all of a sudden, he has gone from someone that was a buyout candidate to someone that could stick around.  In the meantime, if the Kings are out of playoff contention by the trade deadline, he’ll be an intriguing candidate to be moved and he only has limited trade protection.

Athanasiou’s value has been hard to peg down lately.  Edmonton moved two second-rounders to get him, then the flat cap forced him to be non-tendered where he had to settle for $1.2MM last season before landing a big raise in his final arbitration-eligible year.  There are flashes of the 30-goal upside he has shown before but he’ll need to do that consistently to fare better on the open market next summer.  Kempe hasn’t been able to really build on his production from his entry-level deal; he’s an important middle-six piece but with his numbers being where they are, a longer-term pact next summer should be in the high-$3MM range.  Lemieux hasn’t been able to move off the fourth line too often since joining the Kings last season which makes his $1.65MM qualifying offer plus arbitration rights a potential concern for next summer.  Lizotte and Grundstrom have worked their way into regular roles which should give them a small raise but both should be around the $1MM range on their next contract.

Edler has been a nice complementary part of the back end in the early going this season and at 35, his days of logging heavy minutes are probably coming to an end.  His age makes him a candidate to go year-to-year with the potential for bonuses.  Another contract around this price point is certainly attainable.  The same can’t be said for Maatta who, despite the injuries the Kings have had on the back end this season, can still barely crack their lineup.  His stock has dropped sharply since he signed this deal coming off his entry-level contract and he’ll be looking at closer to the $1MM mark next summer unless he is able to play himself into a regular role.

Two Years Remaining

F Trevor Moore ($1.875MM, UFA)
F Austin Wagner ($1.133MM, RFA)
G Jonathan Quick ($5.8MM, UFA)

Moore earned this contract coming off a career-best year last season where he produced at a third-line level.  That hasn’t been his role for most of his career and he’ll need to stay at that level if he wants to have a chance at a sizable raise on the open market.  Wagner was signed to be an energetic role player after being a regular for most of last season but cleared waivers and is in the minors which doesn’t bode well for his future earnings.

Quick has been a fixture between the pipes for Los Angeles since 2008 but he has struggled considerably over the past few seasons relative to the level he played at in his prime.  At this point, he’s more of a backup than a starter so the current value isn’t there.  That said, this was a team-friendly contract at the beginning including when they won a Stanley Cup so it being an overmarket one now shouldn’t bother them much.

Three Years Remaining

F Viktor Arvidsson ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Anze Kopitar ($10MM, UFA)
D Matt Roy ($3.15MM, UFA)
D Sean Walker ($2.65MM, UFA)

Kopitar has only finished one season above the point per game mark but has been one of the top two-way centers in the league throughout his career and is quietly off to a strong start offensively this season with 13 points through his first nine games.  Considering he’ll be 37 when his next contract starts, it’s unlikely his next contract will be at this price tag but if he’s still a top-six player by then, his drop in pay may not be too sharp.  Arvidsson is coming off a couple of quieter years with Nashville but will have an opportunity to re-establish himself as a legitimate top-six winger with the Kings.  So far, so good on that front and his ability to sustain that over the next three years will determine if he winds up with an extra million or two or having to settle for a bit less as a middle-six piece.

Roy is more of a complementary defender that has been in and out of the top four depending on matchups and injuries and while that isn’t the most exciting of profiles, it’s one that landed him this deal and should give him an opportunity to beat it slightly in 2024 if all goes well.  Right-shot blueliners are hard to come by and teams will pay a small premium for them.  Walker is in a similar situation – he produces a bit more than Roy but doesn’t play quite as much and as they’re very close in age (both are 26), his potential is somewhat similar in terms of earnings.  If he can become a full-time top-four player though, his production could boost him a bit higher than Roy.

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PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Minnesota Wild

Current Cap Hit: $78,453,086 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

Minnesota has some players who could see time with them at some point this season in Matt Boldy (two years, $881K) and Marco Rossi (three years, $894K) but neither figure to play prominent roles or reach their Class A bonuses.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Jordie Benn ($900K, UFA)
F Nick Bjugstad ($900K, UFA)
F Kevin Fiala ($5.1MM, RFA)
D Alex Goligoski ($5MM, UFA)
F Jordan Greenway ($2.1MM, RFA)
G Kaapo Kahkonen ($725K, RFA)
D Jon Merrill ($850K, UFA)
F Rem Pitlick ($918K, RFA)
F Victor Rask ($4MM, UFA)
F Nico Sturm ($725K, UFA)

The decision the Wild made to take Fiala to arbitration was a bit of a curious one.  While it ensured he’d be with the team for training camp, it also gave him the opportunity to elect a two-year term that would walk him right to UFA eligibility.  That didn’t happen as they settled on this one-year pact which still gives Fiala the right to opt for arbitration next summer and take another one-year deal.  It also gives Minnesota one more opportunity to try to lock him up long term but with the dead cap money they have on the books for the next few years, fitting it in could be tricky.  This situation will be one to monitor.

Rask’s contract is finally set to come off the books after being acquired in a trade two years ago that hasn’t worked out well at all.  As someone who is better suited for a very limited role now, he may have to settle for a quarter of his current rate next summer.  Greenway’s bridge deal gave the Wild some extra short-term flexibility and a chance to evaluate his potential for being a long-term fixture.  He has shown some improvement but he hasn’t quite established himself as a top-six piece either.  A one-year deal that keeps him RFA-eligible next summer may be in Minnesota’s best interest.  Bjugstad, Pitlick, and Sturm are all role players that will need to be willing to sign for similar low-cost rates to stick around.

Goligoski decided to sign with his hometown team in the offseason, taking a higher one-year deal over a multi-year pact that carried some longer-term security.  He’s more of a fourth or fifth option at this stage of his career and could be looking at something closer to the $3MM mark next summer.  Benn and Merrill are both depth defenders that didn’t have a lot of interest in free agency this year – it took a month for Benn to get this deal – and similar contracts are likely unless one of them plays their way into a bigger role.

Kahkonen has settled in as the backup but barring something unexpected, his experience in terms of NHL appearances is going to be limited – likely somewhere in the range of 55 career games.  That’s not going to help his case in arbitration.  He has two years of team control remaining so he either takes a one-year deal (likely in the $2MM range) or a multi-year pact closer to $3MM but the latter may be tough to afford.

Two Years Remaining

F Brandon Duhaime ($750K, RFA)
D Mathew Dumba ($6MM, UFA)
F Frederick Gaudreau ($1.2MM, UFA)
D Dmitry Kulikov ($2.25MM, UFA)
G Cam Talbot ($3.667MM, UFA)

Gaudreau has largely been in the minors in his career but a good showing in limited action with Pittsburgh took him from a two-way deal to two years at seven figures.  He’ll need to lock down a regular role in each season to land that contract in 2023.  So far, so good on that front.  Duhaime earned the final spot on the roster in training camp and he has done well on the fourth line.  He’ll get a small raise on his next deal with the next increase in the NHL minimum salary and could get a bit more than that if he can stick with the Wild and not be shuffled down to Iowa.

Dumba’s future is about as secure as it has been for a while as gone are the days that had him in frequent trade speculation.  He’s one of their top blueliners and will only be 29 when his deal is up so a max-term contract or close to it shouldn’t be off the table.  He should come in a tier below some of the big deals handed out this past summer but something that pushes the AAV near the $8MM range certainly seems doable at this point.  Kulikov makes a bit much for the spot on the third pairing he currently occupies but if he can hold his own in the top four when injuries arise, they’ll get an okay return on this deal.

Talbot is well below the median salary for starters but did well in that role last season.  Even so, it’s hard to forecast a guaranteed raise for him since he’ll be 36 on his next deal and may be better off with one-year deals with incentives that could push the total compensation around the $4MM mark; those aren’t available on multi-year pacts for 35-plus players.

Three Years Remaining

F Marcus Foligno ($3.1MM, UFA)
F Ryan Hartman ($1.7MM, UFA)
F Mats Zuccarello ($6MM, UFA)

Zuccarello had a quiet first season but was certainly better in 2020-21, producing at a level that’s close to the top line which is what he’s being paid to do.  He’ll turn 37 for his next contract and is another candidate to do a one-year, incentive-laden deal at that time, especially if his production drops off towards the end of the contract.  Foligno’s contract seemed a little high when it was signed back in January but with how the UFA market went over the summer, it’s a market-value contract.  Whether or not he can stay healthy will go a long way towards what his next deal will be as staying in the lineup has been an issue and the style he plays doesn’t always age well.  Hartman has been able to work his way up the depth chart compared to where he was in his previous stops and a middle-six winger signed for $1.7MM for three years is pretty good value although he’ll need to step up his production past the 20-point mark to have a shot at landing a much pricier deal in 2024.

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