It was a strong postseason for a few of Capitals prospects – namely 2019 first-round pick Connor McMichael, who led the team with six goals in 20 games. It was the team’s depth that carried them through the many tribulations a postseason brings, though, with seven players recording 10 or more points. 27-year-old Hunter Shepard, who excelled in his first full AHL campaign after signing with Hershey in 2020, won MVP honors after posting a 2.27 goals-against average, .914 save percentage, three shutouts, and a 14-6-0 record in 20 playoff games.

More from the hockey news cycle this morning:

• New Jersey Devils restricted free agent defenseman Reilly Walsh is set to lose his waiver-exempt status next season after three strong campaigns in the minors. In an interview with NJ.com’s Ryan Novozinsky, Devils assistant general manager Dan MacKinnon revealed the team is preparing to lose Walsh, either via trade early in the season or a possible waiver claim. A third-round pick of the team in 2017, Walsh has recorded back-to-back 40-plus point seasons with the AHL’s Utica Comets and notched an assist in his lone NHL appearance in 2021-22. With a logjam of elite defense prospects in the Devils organization that includes Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec, though, there isn’t a clear path to sustained NHL time for Walsh.
• The Nashville Predators have hired Derek MacKenzie as an assistant coach, the team said this morning. MacKenzie had previously worked with new Predators head coach Andrew Brunette for a three-year period with the Florida Panthers, concluding with a President’s Trophy win in 2021-22 with Brunette as head coach. MacKenzie had spent the 2022-23 campaign as head coach of the OHL’s Sudbury Wolves after the Panthers revamped their coaching staff last offseason, where he guided prospects such as forward Quentin Musty (who could be available with Nashville’s first-round selections) to high-end seasons.

Cogliano was able to play in all four games of the Western Conference Finals against the Edmonton Oilers, and even played 11:54 in Game Four, his highest mark of these playoffs. Though not one of Colorado’s star players, Cogliano brings with him leadership and plenty of playoff success, a key asset to have in a Stanley Cup Final with many players who have never been in this position before. Kadri, on the other hand, is a key 200-foot player for the Avalanche who was lost just 37 seconds into Game Three of the conference finals where he was boarded, and injured, by Edmonton’s Evander Kane. On Monday, TSN’s Darren Dreger reported that Kadri had surgery to repair his thumb which was injured during the Kane hit and was unlikely to return in the playoffs. Kadri’s status still has not changed, but today’s comments from Bednar do provide some hope that perhaps the star center will return to the lineup during the series.

• Earlier today, ESPN’s Kevin Weekes tweeted out a video, reporting that the Florida Panthers had relieved assistant coaches Derek MacKenzie and Ulf Samuelsson of their duties. Weekes adds that assistant coach Tuomo Ruutu is still with the club, as is goaltending coach Robb Tallas. Additionally, Weekes says that there have been no contract talks or additional updates on Tallas or head coach and Jack Adams Award finalist Andrew Brunette. Weekes has reported several breaking stories this season, however it is important to note that the moves have not been confirmed yet by the Panthers, who still include MacKenzie and Samuelsson as coaches on their site.
• While the NHL and AHL continue to battle for a league champion, the ECHL has crowned their own, with the Florida Everblades winning the 2022 Kelly Cup last night. The Eastern Conference Champion Everblades defeated the Western Conference Champions, the Toledo Walleye, in the finals to secure the title. The Playoffs MVP was awarded to former University of North Dakota star goaltender Cam Johnson. Johnson has played parts of four seasons with the Everblades, as well as parts of three AHL seasons, including time with the Binghamton Devils and the Cleveland Monsters.
• The Providence Bruins, the AHL affiliate of the Boston Bruins, have made an early offseason signing, bringing in forward Luke Toporowski on a two-year AHL contract, reports NHL.com’s Mark Divver. The 21-year-old Toporowski is a skilled forward who has produced offense every step of the way. Toporowski began his junior career in 2017-18 with the Spokane Chiefs of the WHL, where he would spend three seasons before moving to the USHL, playing with the Sioux Falls Stampede for a majority of the 2020-21 campaign before heading back to the WHL. In 2021-22, the forward had 63 points in just 49 games spread between the Spokane Chiefs and the Kamloops Blazers. Divver adds that Toporowski is likely to join the Boston Bruins in development camp this summer too.

As Wyshynski explains, leaving the bubble is relatively easy—it requires extenuating circumstances like the birth of a child and a GM’s approval—getting back in is not. Eller will be subject to several tests before being allowed to return, including a potential 14-day quarantine depending on where they have traveled.

• With assistant Mike Kitchen opting out, the Florida Panthers will have to make some changes to their coaching staff. George Richards of Florida Hockey Now reports that with Kitchen gone, Andrew Brunette will be taking care of the defense while former captain Derek MacKenzie will organize the forwards. Geordie Kinnear, the head coach of the Springfield Thunderbirds, has also been added to the staff.
• The Toronto Maple Leafs will be getting some reinforcements when they take the ice against the Columbus Blue Jackets in a few weeks. Ilya Mikheyev, whose rookie season was lost after he suffered a frightening wrist injury in late December, is seemingly back to full strength. In fact, Mark Masters of TSN reports that teammates are raving about the improvements that the 25-year old has made to his game during the time off. Mikheyev was already off to a strong start in Toronto, scoring 23 points in his first 39 games before going down to injury.

This group is a bit of old and new for Quenneville, as he brings back long-time assistant Kitchen who worked with him both in St. Louis and Chicago, while also adding two newcomers to the coaching world.

Brunette, 45, spent several years in the Minnesota Wild organization after retirement, filling various roles including coach for a very short period. His stint in Florida though will represent his real first test as he tries to transition fully into the coaching circuit. A veteran player with more than 1,100 games of NHL experience, Brunette played for Quenneville on more than one occasion and developed a friendship that has lasted since his retirement. Quenneville called him a “bright, young hockey mind” in the press release today.

MacKenzie meanwhile will move directly into coaching after retiring just this year. The 37-year old served as captain of the Panthers for several years before finally giving up the “C” to Aleksander Barkov this season, due to an injury that would end his career. He played just a single game for Florida in 2018-19, and will finish with 611 in his career. Still, MacKenzie has long been ticketed for the bench. The veteran forward has been lauded for his leadership abilities throughout his career and can help young players as they transition from top scorers in junior to role players in the NHL, as he did so many years ago.

The 37-year-old came into the season with the idea that he would retire at its conclusion when his contract expired and ceded the captaincy to Aleksander Barkov at the beginning of the season.  Unfortunately, the injury has capped his 2018-19 campaign at all of four shifts, taking away the opportunity to go out under his own terms.

MacKenzie’s career comes to a close with 611 career regular season games played between Atlanta, Columbus, and Florida.  While he was never a prolific scorer (his career high in goals in a single season was nine), he became a valuable energy center that played with a physical edge, could contribute on the penalty, and be above average at the faceoff dot.

Given that he is under contract for this season, his $1.375MM cap hit will remain on the books for the remainder of the year while he’s on injured reserve.  Florida already projects to have $4MM in end-of-season salary cap space per CapFriendly but if the Panthers make a move or two to add salary, they can put MacKenzie’s contract on LTIR to free up some additional cap space if they need to do so.

If this is the end for MacKenzie, who will turn 38 in June, it has been a successful run. After being selected in the fifth round in 1999 by the Atlanta Thrashers, it took him a decade to establish himself as a full-time NHL player. That came in 2010-11 with the Columbus Blue Jackets, when he played in 63 games and set a career-high with 23 points. The nine goals he scored that year were the closest he’d come to double digits, but he was valued nonetheless as a bottom-six player and emotional leader on both Columbus and then Florida.

Named captain of the Panthers in 2016 after Willie Mitchell retired, MacKenzie held the position for two seasons before relinquishing the “C” to Aleksander Barkov this summer. Though he was not scheduled to wear a letter this year, MacKenzie is still a huge part of the leadership group in Florida and his presence is notoriously missing on the ice. The former Calder Cup champion has 611 career regular season games under his belt in the NHL, but never was able to get his teams to even the second round of the playoffs. If he can get back on the ice before the season is over, the Panthers will clearly welcome him with open arms. If not, it’s been a career to be proud of and one that has stretched nearly two decades.

That all changed when he suffered a shoulder injury on opening night, and quickly decided that surgery would be the best option for his long-term health. MacKenzie was officially placed on injured reserve today, and will have the corrective surgery when the team returns from their two games in Finland next week. According to George Richards of The Athletic, the team has not made a corresponding roster move yet.

• Alexander Edler suffered an injury early in Wednesday night’s game against the Arizona Coyotes, and will undergo an MRI to see if there is any major damage. Edler is just another walking wounded for the Canucks, who have seen Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser and Chris Tanev all exit the lineup recently with injuries. The team is expected to get the two young forwards back before long, but may have to be without Edler for a while longer if the tests show any structural damage.
• Speaking of losing a defenseman for a while, the Boston Bruins have been without Torey Krug all season as he works his way back from an ankle injury suffered at the end of the preseason. That absence may be coming to an end though, as head coach Bruce Cassidy told reporters that Krug was “very close” to a return and could be in the lineup as early as Saturday evening when the Bruins take on the Montreal Canadiens. Boston has been struggling to find any consistency on their blue line as they deal with injuries to several key players, but are still 6-2-2 through their first ten games.

• When the Panthers take the ice tonight in their opener against the Tampa Bay Lightning, it will mark the NHL debut for defenseman Jacob MacDonald, per Richards. Who? MacDonald, 25, is a largely unheralded prospect who has somehow worked his way into Florida’s starting lineup to begin the year. The team signed MacDonald to a two-year, two-way contract this off-season after three seasons in the minor leagues. The Cornell University graduate hasn’t even been exclusively in the AHL these past three years; he played most of the 2015-16 season in the ECHL and then split time between the two leagues in 2016-17. Only last year did he play his first full AHL season, skating in 75 games with the Binghamton Devils and leading the team with 55 points. He came into camp as unlikely candidate for the Panthers’ roster, but with injuries to Bogdan Kiselevich and Josh Brown and a nagging issue for MacKenzie Weegar, MacDonald has gotten the call. That is not to say that he hasn’t earned his spot though; experienced options like Ian McCoshen and Julian Melchiori were reassigned to the Springfield Thunderbirds while MacDonald remained in camp. The puck-moving defenseman will line up on the Panthers’ third pair with Alex Petrovic tonight and, if he sticks, could be one of the more inspiring stories of this season. For more, check out Erin Brown’s article for The Athletic.
• Florida has one of the more concrete goalie tandems in the league with Roberto Luongo and James Reimer. They even went out and added a solid third option in Michael Hutchinson this summer. However, those three keepers are 39, 30, and 28 years old respectively with birthdays on the way this season. Behind this group, the Panthers actually are one of the more shallow teams in terms of organizational goalie depth in the league, with just young AHL backstop Samuel Montembeault, a third-round pick in 2015, and Bowling Green State University starter Ryan Bednard, a seventh-rounder the same year. For that reason, don’t be surprised to see Montembeault squeeze in some NHL appearances this season as well. The Springfield Thunderbirds goalie struggled in his first pro season last year, but was a competent keeper in the QMJHL and, more importantly, is the closest thing that the Panthers have to an heir apparent regardless of his performance. Luongo is signed for four more years, but it is doubtful that he plays out the entirety of the contract and could retire as early as this summer, and Hutchinson is an impending unrestricted free agent. A future exists where Florida enters the off-season with just Reimer and Montembeault under contract. The youngster has to be ready to embrace his role as the organization’s only standout young goalie and the team has to prepare him for the possibility of an increased role sooner rather than later.

Barkov, 23, has been on track to become Panthers captain for several years now. Since being selected second overall in the 2013 draft, the big Finnish center has developed extremely quickly and should now be considered one of the very best two-way players in the entire league. After flirting with big point totals in 2015-16 and 2016-17 but being held back by injury, Barkov finally played in more than 71 games in a season and produced his best season to date. With 78 points in 79 games while receiving Selke votes for the fourth consecutive year, Barkov has laid claim to franchise icon status for the Panthers.

Learning under MacKenzie meanwhile will benefit the young forward, as he was allowed to mature and develop without the pressure of captaincy in his first few years. Barkov released a statement about his biggest influences since arriving in Florida, and all three are extremely well-respected NHL veterans:

This is a tremendous honor and I’m excited to take on the responsibility of being captain. I’ve been fortunate to be able to observe and work with quality leaders and captains like Ed Jovanovski, Willie Mitchell and Derek MacKenzie during my career. I love my teammates, we’re a tight group and there are a lot of strong leaders in our room. I was very happy when Bob and Dale told me that I was going to be captain. It’s a dream come true to see the captain’s ’C’ on my jersey.

MacKenzie, 37, is heading into the last part of his career and though he is still a reliable fourth-line player he can’t have the sort of impact Barkov brings every night. Passing the torch at some point was an inevitability, and one that he apparently did with little prompting.

The Florida Panthers are in a difficult situation with the NHL Trade Deadline fast approaching. Few truly consider the team to be a playoff contender, but the fact of the matter is they are not that far out from a postseason spot. Florida currently sits in 12th in the Eastern Conference and nowhere close to an Atlantic Division berth, which admittedly is an uninspiring scenario. However, trailing the New York Islanders by eight points with a whopping six games in hand, the Panthers don’t need an unrealistic stretch to catch up. Yet, what is problematic is their upcoming slate of games leading up to the trade deadline, in which they play four games, all of which are against bona fide playoff teams. An 0-4 result this week would not be much of a surprise, but could deter GM Dale Tallon from continuing to pursue a playoff berth. At the same time, a positive result against strong competition could instill hope in the team and urge them to make a deal to improve the roster. The Panthers’ deadline role is still very much up in the air.

Record

25-23-6, 4th in the Atlantic Division

Deadline Status

To be determined

Deadline Cap Space

$33,124,940 in deadline cap space
41/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Draft Picks

2018: FLA 1st, ARI 2nd, FLA 3rd, VGK 4th, FLA 5th, FLA 6th, FLA 7th
2019: FLA 1st, FLA 2nd, FLA 3rd, FLA 4th, FLA 5th, FLA 6th, FLA 7th

Trade Chips

The Panthers may not be buyers at the 2018 deadline, depending on their next few games, but can they really be “sellers” in the traditional sense? Florida has just two impending unrestricted free agents with any value: veteran forward Radim Vrbata and AHL import goalie Harri Sateri. Neither player will net Florida much at the deadline, as neither is more than a luxury depth addition, rather than a difference-making acquisition. The team decided to move forward with an extension for Colton Sceviour, who otherwise might have drawn ample deadline attention. What remains is a roster that offers little to contenders. However, where the Panthers could make a move is trading away players with term for other players with term, rather than participating in the rental market. While they may be happy to move the likes of Jamie McGinn or Derek MacKenzie, the Panthers will have to deal value for value if pursuing some of the bigger available targets. Defenseman Alex Petrovic, a restricted free agent this summer, appears destined to leave Florida sooner rather than later, while young forwards Denis Malgin, Maxim Mamin, and Dryden Hunt and rookie defenseman Ian McCoshen will surely be in demand.

The Panthers don’t have much in the way of prospect depth, especially on defense, so may be hesitant to deal away too many draft picks or their high-value picks, including a potential lottery pick this season. Henrik Borgstrom is a near untouchable, and could even make his NHL debut this season if the Panthers are in the hunt, whereas 2017 first-rounder Owen Tippett is definitely a non-starter. Adam Mascherin or Aleksi Heponiemi won’t enjoy the same protections and could be moved in the right deal.

Players To Watch: F Radim Vrbata, G Harri Sateri, D Alex Petrovic, F Connor Brickley, F Denis Malgin

Team Needs

1) Top-six winger with term

The only reason the Panthers would move any of the aforementioned young players is to bring in a long-term asset. Tallon and company have made it known they are looking for a top-six winger to round out a really strong top-six group. With names like Mike Hoffman, Max Pacioretty, Mats Zuccarello and more reportedly available, Florida is one team willing to make a major deal in-season to acquire such a name. A young roster player, prospect, and draft pick could be enough to land one of these experienced scorers, which will serve the Panthers this season and beyond.

2) Starting defenseman with term

Interestingly, the Panthers’ main focus appears to be at forward when the team actually scores at a decent clip, but struggles to prevent goals against. Florida is very attached to Aaron Ekblad, Keith Yandle, and the recently-extended Michael Matheson, and for good reason; the trio have been excellent this season. The other half of the defense corps has been less impressive and both Petrovic and Mackenzie Weegar don’t seem to be long-term fits. The Cats could surely benefit from adding another body on the blue line that has a some years remaining on their contract. Such a deal could easily be made in free agency or on the summer trade market, but if the right player at the right price becomes available – such as an Oscar Klefbom for example – the Panthers will be interested.

3) Draft picks

At the end of the day, with their playoff chances caught in limbo and no desperation to make major deals, the most likely deadline strategy for Florida will be to simply trade away impending free agents or other expendable pieces for the best draft picks they can get. The cupboard is basically bare when it comes to defensive depth in the pipeline. A great quantity of picks in the next draft or two should help to rebuild the system on the back end as well as at other positions.

Other injury notes from around the Atlantic Division:

• While the Panthers are expected to get center Derek MacKenzie back in their lineup tonight after missing the last five games with a lower-body injury, they’ll have to wait a little while longer before winger Radim Vrbata makes his return, notes Matthew DeFranks of the Sun-Sentinel. The veteran took a puck to the face last Saturday and is hoping to play sometime next week.  Vrbata sits tied for fifth in team scoring with three goals and eight assists through 19 games.
• Brad Marchand’s return to Boston’s lineup won’t happen this weekend. The team announced (Twitter link) that they have ruled him out of the lineup for Sunday’s game against Edmonton.  They’re now targeting Wednesday against Tampa Bay for his first game back.  The Bruins also revealed in a separate tweet that forward David Backes took some contact in practice for the first time since undergoing surgery to remove part of his colon at the beginning of the month.  The original recovery time was expected to be eight weeks so it appears he’s ahead of schedule.
• Canadiens defenseman Shea Weber will miss his third straight game on Saturday as a result of his lower-body injury, the team announced via Twitter. He did, however, take part in the morning skate so his return likely isn’t too far away.  Weber leads Montreal’s defenders in points (13) and average ice time (26:07) so far this season.

This year, we saw Colorado swallow their pride and buy out Francois Beauchemin even with this extra clause, and they will face the full $4.5MM cap hit this season. Mike Cammalleri, who is now 35 himself and was similarly bought out will not fall under this rule because he signed his contract several years ago. Only if the contract is signed after 35 does it come into effect.

With that clear, let’s look at some of the players who will be under contract for the 2018-19 season and could potentially cause their teams a cap hit without actually playing for them. Here are all the 35+ contracts that will still be active after the coming season.

Patrick Marleau – Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs signed Patrick Marleau to a three-year, $18.75MM contract this offseason and took a substantial risk in doing so. Marleau turns 38 before the season starts, and though he has been known to keep his body in great shape throughout his career is clearly on the regular downward trajectory every player experiences. The Maple Leafs did an interesting thing to reduce some of their risk however, by front-loading Marleau’s contract and paying nearly the whole thing out in signing bonuses. 

On July 2nd 2019, a few months before the final season of the contract begins, Marleau will have just $1.25MM left owed to him. Though he’ll be 41 for that season, and still carrying a $6.25MM cap hit, he’ll be a near-free option for a team struggling to hit the cap floor. That’s assuming he’s not still effective and the Maple Leafs want to keep him around, though they will be paying their young players like Auston Matthews a good chunk of the cap and may need the room. Marleau does have a no-movement clause, but if he’s set on retiring anyway it likely wouldn’t matter to him if his contract was traded.

Justin Williams – Carolina Hurricanes

Williams signed a two-year deal with the Hurricanes to return to the place he won his first Stanley Cup, and he comes with very little risk for the club in terms of retirement. Still a very effective scoring option, last season Williams actually registered his highest goal total since his days in Carolina a decade ago. It’s hard to see how he would fall so far in 2017-18 to make him think retirement was the only option.

That said, there is always a chance that a 35+ player could fall off a cliff production wise or just reach a point in his life that he wants to move on from hockey. If he did that next summer, the Hurricanes would be on the hook for a $4.5MM cap hit with no player to show for it. Luckily, the Hurricanes are one of those cap floor teams and an empty hit like that would pose no issue to their salary structure. They’d rather have an effective Williams in the lineup, but this deal came with almost no risk.

Ron Hainsey – Toronto Maple Leafs

Here come the Maple Leafs again, who handed out two multi-year deals to 35+ players this offseason. Hainsey comes fresh off a Stanley Cup victory with the Pittsburgh Penguins in his first taste of the playoffs, and will be expected to log difficult minutes in Toronto to take some pressure off their young group. His two-year, $6MM deal also comes front loaded should the team need to move him next summer.

Hainsey will be 38 when the contract expires, and some have already started to point out his deficiencies as the years roll on. With the Maple Leafs having to make decisions on James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, William Nylander and Leo Komarov next summer, any further decline from Hainsey could be a problem. With no buyout relief available, the Maple Leafs would likely have to bite the bullet and keep him around through the end of the deal.

Alex Burrows – Ottawa Senators

It took a two-year extension from the Ottawa Senators to get Burrows to waive his no-trade clause at last year’s deadline, and that number will be tough to watch for the team should he continue his rapid decline. For a player who once scored 35 goals in a season, Burrows had just 24 the last two combined. While he did show some better jump in the Ottawa lineup, the team has several young players who will deserve more playing time over the next couple of seasons.

$2.5MM isn’t the end of the world, but when you’re a team who works on a tight internal budget like the Senators every dollar can mean a lot. Without the buyout option and the risk of Burrows hanging it up, that $2.5MM could haunt them next summer. Luckily, it will expire before the team needs to shell out the dollars for Erik Karlsson, who will be eligible for extension next offseason but won’t have his expected record-breaking deal kick in until 2019-20.

Ryan Miller – Anaheim Ducks 

Anaheim took a risk handing out a 35+ contract to Miller, but there doesn’t seem to be any sign of him wanting to retire just yet. He’s now closer to his offseason home with actress Noureen DeWulf, and $2MM per season to backup John Gibson seems like a perfect scenario 37-year old goaltender. Even though he could suddenly turn ineffective, their faith in Gibson and his similar inexpensiveness (he’s owed just $2.3MM in each of the next two seasons) covers their back.

Derek MacKenzie – Florida Panthers

The two-year extension the Panthers gave their captain last summer was a surprising one, if only because you don’t usually see players of his stature receive a guaranteed contract a year before they’re due for one. MacKenzie signed his first 35+ contract, but it comes at such a small cost—$2.75MM total over two years—that it poses little risk. The team wouldn’t need to buy him out, and even if he were to hang up his skates next summer they would have plenty of cap room. Besides, the Panthers have had great success with 35+ contracts in the past—just ask Jaromir Jagr.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

After cracking 100 points and winning the Atlantic Division in 2015-16, injuries and overall under-performance sent the Panthers tumbling back to Earth in 2016-17. Florida finished with over 20 points less, at 81, good enough for sixth in the division and a top-ten draft slot. Yet, hopes remain high in Sunrise, FL as the Panthers are still a team built around young stars that has just begun to reach its potential. With Huberdeau, Trochek, Barkov, Bjugstad, Ekblad, and Matheson forming a core group under 25 with top prospects like forwards Henrik Borgstrom and Adam Mascherin and goalie Sam Montembeault still on the way, Florida only has to worry about adding complementary pieces to a talented young group.

Yet, the shadow of the Expansion Draft still looms large over the Panthers. With so many good, young players under contract, the expansion process will not be easy for the Cats. They may be able to protect their best young players, but they are nearly guaranteed to lose a solid complementary veteran.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad, Jussi Jokinen, Derek MacKenzie, Colton Sceviour, Jonathan Marchessault, Steven Hodges, Michael Sgarbossa, Graham Black

Defense
Keith Yandle (NMC), Aaron Ekblad, Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, Mark Pysyk, MacKenzie Weegar, Reece Scarlett

Goaltender
Roberto Luongo, James Reimer

Notable Exemptions

Jared McCann, Denis Malgin, Michael Matheson, Ian McCoshen

Key Decisions

The Panthers don’t have an easy decision to make at any position group. They face the risk of losing a prominent forward, defenseman, or goalie if they don’t read the Vegas Golden Knights correctly. Perhaps the biggest name who may be left unprotected in net: potential future Hall of Fame goalie Roberto Luongo. Many were surprised when the Panthers brought back Luongo, and with him the remainder of a 12-year, $64MM contract, in 2014. Even more were surprised when, nonetheless, Florida signed James Reimer to a five-year, $17MM contract on July 1st of last year. That move seems like it has partly been leading up to this point. While Luongo and Reimer each started 39 games in 2016-17 with very similar records, Reimer had the edge on Luongo in performance statistics. While this was their first season sharing the net, it is now the second season in a row in which Reimer has outplayed Luongo. It seems very unlikely that Florida will choose to protect the 38-year-old Luongo, who is under contract at $5.33MM per year until the age of 43, over the 29-year-old Reimer, with a more reasonable $3.4MM cap hit over that same span of time. Luongo will thus likely be one of the biggest names under contract and available to Vegas, but don’t expect a new team to take on that contract. Should they expose Reimer instead, the chances are much higher that the Knights will select a Panther goalie, but chances are both keepers are back in Florida next year regardless.

Among the forward corps, there is a lot to sort out. To get the easy ones out of the way, young scorers Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov, and Nick Bjugstad are almost surely safe. Assuming the Panthers go with the 7/3 scheme, that leaves them with three forwards left to protect. If they do go 8-skaters, then those four would represent all the protected forwards. After a breakout campaign in which he led the Panthers with 30 goals, 26-year-old Jonathan Marchessault is also highly likely to be protected. This leaves just two spots left for four valuable veteran forwards: Reilly Smith, Jussi Jokinen, Colton Sceviour, and captain Derek MacKenzie. Luckily for the Panthers, all four meet the qualifications (having played 70 games over the last two seasons or 40 games last season and be under contract) to meet the two-forward quota, so whoever the GM Dale Tallon wants he can have without having to consider other expansion criteria. With the free agent status of Jaromir Jagr up in the air, the leadership value of Jokinen and MacKenzie must be considered by a young Florida team. However, MacKenzie has not scored more than 20 points in a season since 2010-11 and is likely not of interest to Vegas and can be left unprotected. So who of Jokinen, Smith, and Sceviour will join him in the Draft? The 25-year-old Smith has the best chance to be the best producer for the longest amount of time in Florida. This also could be a way for the Panthers to dump the five-year, $25MM extension they signed him to last summer before it even begins. As he did with the Boston Bruins, Smith had a great first season with Florida in 2015-16, but just as he did in Boston, Smith fell off significantly in year two. The Panthers will have to re-sign Bjugstad and Marchessault and give non-entry level deals to Denis Malgin, Jared McCann, and others before that contract expires. Can they afford the weight of a $5MM annual cap hit for an average player? If Smith has scared them off, expect them to expose him and hope Vegas takes the risk. If not, it comes down to Jokinen and Sceviour. Again, the 33-year-old Jokinen has the leadership and experience and is just one year removed from a 60-point season. Sceviour can’t boast that kind of career production, but at $950K to Jokinen’s $4MM and Smith’s $5MM, he gets the Panthers more bang for their buck.

Defense is the real nightmare for Florida. Keith Yandle’s No-Movement Clause makes him automatically protected, though he would be protected regardless after signing a seven-year deal last year that began with a nice 41-point season. Aaron Ekblad is also as close to a sure thing as their is in the Expansion Draft as far as protection. The 2015 Calder Trophy-winner struggled a bit last season, but is still a top pair defenseman at just 21 years old. That leaves defensive spot left in the 7/3 scheme and three stalwart defeseman to choose from: Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, and Mark Pysyk. Unfortunately, unless circumstance change, Demers is out of the equation. With Yandle and Ekblad protected and Petrovic and Pysyk as restricted free agents, Demers is the only defenseman on the roster who can meet the 70-40 quota. It is possible for Florida to re-sign and expose Petrovic, Pysyk, or impending unrestricted free agent Jakub Kindl and then protect Demers, but their hesitation to do so yet seems to imply that they won’t be. Thus, Demers will be exposed and stands a very high chance of playing in Vegas next season. As for Petrovic verus Pysyk, both are similar in age and have great ability, but little to show for it on the score sheet early in their careers. The Panthers brass know best which 25-year-old fits best on the team, and likely both will remain in Florida, but don’t be surprised if they give the homegrown talent Petrovic the nod.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Jonathan Huberdeau
Vincent Trocheck
Aleksander Barkov
Nick Bjugstad
Jonathan Marchessault
Jussi Jokinen
Colton Sceviour

Defensemen

Keith Yandle (NMC)
Aaron Ekblad
Alex Petrovic

Goalie

James Reimer

Every team has a few risks that they must take in the Expansion Draft. As extraordinarily unlikely as it is, losing Luongo would be a blow and would cause the Panthers to have to change their off-season priorities to focus on helping Reimer in net. Smith being selected could come back to bite them if his $25MM deal pays off in Vegas. Being stripped of their captain would be rough on the locker room and they will likely hold out hope that there is no interest in MacKenzie. Having Pysyk taken from them after he was the centerpiece of last summer’s Dmitry Kulikov trade would feel like a waste.

So what sets Florida apart? Exposing Demers barely qualifies as a risk. The 28-year-old was one of the prizes of free agency last summer and just finished the first season of a relatively affordable five-year, $22.5MM deal. He scored 28 points this season, the second best campaign of his career and a level of production closer to that of his time back with the San Jose Sharks. He also has seen a steady climb in shooting percentage as the years have gone on and could easily break double digits next season, regardless of where he plays. However, the best thing about Demers for the Golden Knights is that he is a safe pick. He can lead their defense, can easily play 20+ minutes per night, can hit and block shots, and is signed long-term, meaning he can become a franchise player and potentially the team’s first captain. Unless the Panthers go 8-skaters or extend a current qualifying defenseman to then protect Demers, they face a real risk of losing a very solid player for nothing after just one year.

Florida Panthers goaltender Roberto Luongo suffered a lower-body injury tonight in a game against the Philadelphia Flyers and will not return, reports the Sun Sentinel’s Harvey Fialkov. Luongo suffered the injury in the first period after making an awkward save. James Reimer started in goal for the Panthers in the second period. CSN’s Tim Pannacio speculates that Luongo pulled his groin.

Luongo’s injury halts a potential performance upswing for the veteran goalie. Tonight’s game marked the first time Luongo played in back-to-back games in over two weeks. The Panthers had been going with James Reimer as of late due to Luongo’s struggles and Reimer’s ability to right the ship. Luongo is not having his best season, going 17-15-6 in 39 games with a .914 SV% and a 2.70 GAA. Coincidentally, these mark Luongo’s worst stats since his final year with Florida in 2005-06 before being traded to the Vancouver Canucks. Conversely, Reimer has put together a 12-8-4 record in 26 games with a .919 SV% and a 2.47 GAA. Not significantly better numbers, mind you, but in the Eastern Conference’s tight playoff race, every edge matters.

If Reimer suffers an injury, the Panthers have two readily available—if unconventional—options. Goaltending coach Robb Tallas or forward Derek MacKenzie have both been emergency goaltending options in the past for Florida. Expect the Panthers to call up Reto Berra if they expect Luongo to miss some time. Berra currently plays for the AHL Springfield Thunderbirds and has a .910 SV% and 2.53 GAA in 31 games.

The call to keep them together has certainly worked out for the Wild.  Granlund has 36 points already this season (just eight shy of matching his career best from last year) while Koivu is on pace for a 60 point campaign, a mark he hasn’t reached since 2010-11.  Meanwhile, Minnesota leads the Western Conference in goals scored, something we’re not used to seeing from a club that had a long-time reputation as a defense-first squad.

Other notes from around the league:

• In what appears to be merely a procedural move, the Red Wings will transfer goalie Jimmy Howard onto LTIR, reports Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. There’s no indication of a setback for the netminder, who has been skating in recent days.  However, doing so will allow the team to activate Darren Helm off of LTIR without requiring any further roster moves as he is close to returning and could suit up tomorrow.  Helm has been out of the lineup since November 15th due to a dislocated shoulder.  If he is activated, center Steve Ott is expected to be placed on injured reserve with a shoulder injury to open a spot on the active 23-man roster.
• Panthers captain Derek MacKenzie reached a rare milestone yesterday. By suiting up in his 500th career NHL game last night, he became just the eighth player to play in 500 games at both the NHL and AHL levels, via the AHL’s Communications Department (Twitter link).
• The Flames announced that center Sam Bennett will be a healthy scratch for the first time this season. The fourth overall pick in 2014 has been mired in a major slump lately, scoring just three goals without any assists in his last 19 games.  Calgary also received some good news on the injury front today as winger Micheal Ferland is set to return from a lower body injury that caused him to miss the last three games.